Saturday, March 10, 2007

Using NewMoMo

SweetTrend asks - "Have you used this indicator on intraday data?"

I don't have a data feed for intraday and I don't feel like paying for one - I've got my useful tools that I use intraday - BOB, the three EMAs and Pivot points and those are sufficient for day trading.

These tools (NewMoMo and Marlyn's Curve) are used for the macro approach - NewMoMo is especially helpful in establishing trades overnight going into an up day the next morning. I put in the DIA price at about 3:45 every day and check the way the wind might be blowing the next day. For example the NewMoMo turned up on Monday afternoon which gave me a signal to buy for Tuesday. What I did was add to my holdings and made some extra alpha as a result. Now you can look this up if you care to check it - here we have an indicator that actually turned up when the market went down. That's right - on Monday the DIA closed at 120.30 or 66 cents below Friday and this indicator turned and went up. Why is that?

Most momentum oscillators measure the momentum of price changes. One of the important things to remember about NewMoMo is that it is measuring the momentum of a volatility signal (which is what the normalization gives you). And volatility is probably the most important thing we can measure in a market (or just about anything else for that matter).

NewMoMo is the logical next step from Marlyn's Curve. Consequently what NewMoMo saw on Monday was the fact that volatility was changing. And that is what I've been preaching forever on this site. You can't have enough insight into volatility and the VIX, while handy, don't get it for trading.

I originally invented Marlyn's Curve to take advantage of the Rydex dynamic and inverse funds - it worked pretty well in that regard. That's what that picture is up in the right corner - the 6 Rydex originals - 3 dynamic and 3 inverse. NewMoMo is just the next logical step in the progression. I'm sure there will be other ideas to come along - I will just keep fiddling and eventually they will happen.

I know that's a bit far afield from the question but I felt it needed to be said and this was as good a time as any to say it.