Friday, March 30, 2007

FOREX Reaction

Consumer spending was up, personal income was down and inflation rose at the fastest pace in 6 months. The only thing the FOREX spot market heard was "inflation" and that means interest rate hikes which means that the US buck is going to become more valuable -

This is the 5-minute USDJPY chart which I find most interesting because the Yen has the lowest interest rate currently available (and it has remained low for years and years and years). There are some neat things on this chart -

I see tweezer bottoms and tops, FOREX BOBs all over the place and something you seldom see - a gap-up between the 3rd and 4th bars from the right. Those of us who play stocks for a living are used to gaps - there are seldom gaps in FOREX, at least not during the week. I'm watching the live charts as I'm typing this and the run up is already coming down.

There is almost always an overreaction to the news as people just buy or sell immediately without thinking it through. Inflation = USD getting stronger because the Fed will have to raise rates - someday. Not today, not this morning, but someday. But the reaction is in the first seconds following the announcement. Isn't that stupid? Yes - but get caught on the wrong side of a couple of these stupid reactions and your trading account can go up in smoke in no time at all.


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ham1198 said...


What happened to the Larry Connors link? He didn't keep his blog long

Marlyn Trades said...

I took it down - he had three posts in a month - that's just too few for me to be bothered with.


Great reaction

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