Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Tuesday Wraps

Interesting day - I expected a downer after yesterday and it boomed. Tomorrow I expect drifting down until the announcement at 2 P.M. and once that comes then all hell will break loose and the DJIA will go up at least 100 to 130 points. That's because the Fed will not raise rates and the market will react strongly to the fact that 2 months from now the Fed will cut.

Right - and if this happens just this way I will not take credit for it because I'm talking with tongue planted firmly in cheek.

My trading portfolio consists of GGB, STD, MVL, MPW, KNOT, and NSM. I dumped SOHU as promised because it didn't make it over 22.50 and stay. Middle of the day it looked like it was going to do just that off a 15-minute BOB and then it collapsed. This is a hated stock - it went all the way to 23.04 and then dropped, dropped, dropped. I sold at 22.49 on the way back down. Actually I relocated my stop there and was stopped out. What a .... but to be fair I bought it off a BOB several days ago and it was higher from there - I just don't like them when they yo-yo day after day. I still think it might take off - the problem is it just isn't in the right industry right now - BIDU and SINA are both down and I'll write about GOOG in a minute or two. But here is a tip - if you want a cheap proxy for GOOG - SOHU is that stock. It rocks with GOOG's roll. And, as always with Marlyn - I don't just throw out some Bull Snot like some of the Bloggers do and expect you to believe - I show a picture -

So if you think GOOG is on the way up but don't have a lot of 448-dollar bills lying around to buy a bunch then SOHU might be the solution. For every share of GOOG you can get almost 20 shares of SOHU. On the other hand if you think GOOG is going down you probably are just better off shorting GOOG. But be careful - that picture suggests that GOOG might be in the process of rolling over and going back up.

I doubled up on MVL at the end of the day. It had that nice end-of-day slope look to it - like it might go up tomorrow. We'll see. Of course if the market yo-yos MVL will too.

For those of you who read my two posts on Return to EMA 4 you can't help but notice that SBUX did the deed today - gapped-up, came back down, hit the 4, prints a crossover and makes a buck and a half. What it showed in the second half of the day might be a rebound and recovery move for tomorrow. Watch it early and you might get a gap up Return to EMA 4 out of it. Watch the pivot point.

NSM is one of the overnight picks grabbed up by my modified BOB set-up with ATR/RSI assist. Turns out that there actually were three selected yesterday and I was looking at the wrong filter when I said that I didn't see any. The three were GM, AVCT and CY and every single one of them went up today - AVCT the best of the lot.

The model portfolio was at 4.64 and the benchmark hit .41. All in all a good day.

GOOG behaved badly again today. it didn't go up at all. On a day when HHH (internet holders ETF) goes up to see GOOG trade flat to down means a lot - and what it means is the stock is done. There is no more money to buy GOOG and the only thing that is going to happen is it is going to drift and do nothing. Of course the minute anyone with any bulk starts selling - it is going to go down like the proverbial rock. AAPL and MSFT both joined in the festivities again today and MSFT looks like it might be going back to 30 dollars. AAPL is heading for 100 - 35 cents at a time.

INDU was up today and its ATR was down some more. That's what we like. Of course this guy is back in overbought territory again -

I hope you all understand that this doesn't necessarily mean that the market is going to turn - only about 80%. It could stay in overbought territory for several days before collapsing again. Although I really hope it goes down calmly next time.

The VIX is 15% below its 10-period moving average and the up/down ratio is 63%. I'm suggesting that the market will go down in the morning and then after the 2 P.M. announcement it will recover most of its losses. But I still think it will finish down.

The magic coin meanwhile, fresh off that good butt whipping that it gave me today says ... heads - going up some more.

The score now stands at Marlyn 21 - 16 and 6 and the coin is 21 - 18 and 6.

1 comment:


Nice way to look at it.