Saturday, March 17, 2007

Volume Analysis

The other day a reader asked if I ever thought of using volume with NewMoMo and if that might make a difference. The short answer is I investigated volume years ago and came to the conclusion that the only time volume made a difference was at the extremes. That's why you only see me use volume to separate winners from contenders in my filters and as a primary component in the Blow-off Bottom where it is used at an extreme.

But more importantly - I don't use volume because I don't want to appear to be as befuddled as this gentleman -

The last paragraph of Volume Analysis by Brian Bloom:

We have volume analysis to thank for confirmation that the next significant technical signals are likely to be "SELL" in the Industrial Equities, and "BUY" in the Gold and Silver equities.

Mr Richard Russell and Mr Joseph Granville, I salute you.

Brian Bloom

October 30th, 2004

Here is a picture worth a thousand words -

The article itself is far more than a thousand words and is a fairly comprehensive discussion and description of on-balance volume. Unfortunately that knowledge led Mr. Bloom to come to a rather bizarre conclusion. Unfortunately also - the internet never forgets. I am not a follower of Granville or Russell - they did fine work back at a time when a good week was a 100 million shares - today half if not more of the stocks in the market do a 100 million shares in a day.

The lesson is - move on - continue to learn - your methods will not last forever.


Anonymous said...

Thanks for the post Marlyn. I am learning from your insight.



Really done right.