Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Wrapping Wednesday

- Wow! I go away for two days and leave the market for you guys to take care of and what do you do - you break it. Kids - what's the matter with kids today?

Got back in this afternoon and the first thing I did was bring up QuoteTracker and note how far from the various pivots everything was. Once they started hitting the next pivot down I started doing what everyone else should have - I bought with both hands. Added to RHT, AKS, TRA, and GGB.

And once more for the pivot unbelievers - if there are any left -

I hope that you find that of some use.

I added CBK and DLX to the portfolio. DLX was one of the stocks I had in the model portfolio that I new that I wanted in my trading portfolio and yesterday gave me the opportunity - I only wish I had made the play earlier than I did. CBK I picked off a scan I threw together of stocks that were beaten down, were coming back again, and were beaten down once more yesterday.

The model portfolio (based on stocks selected from the fall of 2/27) is up 2.11% as of the close - the benchmark (SPY) is negative .79%.

While we were away I had a new idea - what about a mega-cap portfolio? The 20 highest cap stocks on the U.S. exchanges? So I put that together with a start of 28 February opening price. It finished today at -1.63%. And so much for mega-cap stocks. I'll keep track of this one and report on it day by day. I'm also going to put in a mini-cap portfolio too. I'll have to work on that a bit. I don't want tiny stocks - just stocks with a small number of outstanding shares. Maybe tomorrow.

Was anyone following the INDU ATR for the past couple of days? On Friday last it was 178.73 which was a spike up from Thursday. On Monday there was another spike up to 180.20. That might have been an indicator of bad things to come. Tuesday in the face of avalanche part 2 - it dropped to its lowest level in 9 trading days but today it resumed its upward move and finished at 153.89. No clear signal yet. Still in the woods.

But on a short term basis this indicator is suggesting that an oversold signal is not far away. When I first introduced NewMoMo I said that -.005 is the key for a bottom. You can see that it isn't quite there yet.

I'm sure everyone (except MSNBC) was following this signal to see where the market could possibly be going over the past couple of days.

Again something that maybe you would find useful.

The bell weather tech stocks - AAPL, GOOG and MSFT are doing well under the circumstances. The interesting thing is that MSFT had the best looking chart of the three. AAPL and MSFT both finished very strong in the last 15 minutes of the day. GOOG is still having issues but I can't find out what they are. Maybe my thesis is correct and people just sold off to get money to take advantage of the dip.

For those of you who are interested in a possible day trade - LQDT has printed an exceptional BOB set-up today and from the looks of that dummy spot (AKA gravestone doji) it appears ready to fly. It will be on my watch list tomorrow. Day trade only.

So I wasn't here yesterday to inform you that the VIX was 10% above its 10-period moving average and the up/down ratio was printing 17% and all four indices we follow as well as GS finished the last hour in the red/black. I hope you all were able to find all of that on your own because it pointed to an up day today and that's what we got. Call it magic, call it mystical, but don't forget that you learned how to predict the market with 55% accuracy right here. Actually when the up/down ratio is below 20 and the other signals obtain as they did the accuracy is somewhere in the 90's. I think that's because when there is something to buy folks generally buy it.

For tomorrow the VIX is neutral, the up/down ratio is neutral, I've already shown you that the NewMoMo is neutral and the four indices that we follow are white/green - but not GS - it remains red/black. So a mixed bunch - which is - you guessed it - neutral. I think you're going to have to watch the Yen overnight for a clue. Whither the USDYEN and there are the Q's.

I'm calling tomorrow up regardless of all the neutrality - it is the day before expiry.

The magic coin, having had a nice little rest calls the market --- heads as well.

Having missed Monday - the score now stands at Marlyn 19 - 14 and 6 and the coin is 17 - 18 and 6. Coin is almost as good as Jimmy Crack CP.


Anonymous said...


You need to write a book on Pivot Points..........

Sure made a believer out of me. I'll never trade without them again.


Bullish Jim said...

Welcome back, MT. You were missed.


Wrap it up.