Thursday, March 15, 2007

Thursday Wrap

Busy day - at least for posting - I overdid it a bit but didn't really have much else to do. I kept you pretty much up to date on my trading during the day - only change to add is that I added again to GGB and put SOHU in the portfolio. It now stands at AKS, GGB, STD, SOHU and NFI. I added SOHU because it was forming a BOB and the chart looks good. STD is another one from a BOB formation and a good looking chart. And it wasn't just the BOB but also the doji that formed yesterday.

Most every stock found a pivot point early this morning and sat right there. AKS stayed on R1 all day, GGB bounced off R1, spent some time at midpoint high, retreated to the pivot and bounced there twice. I bought it twice more at these places. I picked up STD just at the R1 because it never retreated. NFI I grabbed going past R2 but it backed up and finished where I bought it - I didn't add to it - maybe tomorrow. That one makes me a little nervous since it's one of those subprime mortgage lenders. I bought SOHU off of R1. Obviously those trades are in anticipation of tomorrow and days hence.

I mentioned LQDT in yesterday's post as being in a set-up formation but it didn't go anywhere today and I think I'm taking it off my radar.

As I said this morning basically a sideways day with everyone standing around scratching their butts and wondering what to do next. That's the problem with expiry week - nothing moves except paper. You can't get much more boring than today.

The market went up but I'm not sure how. GOOG went down a buck which is noise, AAPL keeps banging up against 90 as if it is some invisible barrier and MSFT continues to slide along the 27 - 28 dollar range. AAPL and MSFT lost a little today. I don't know what that says about tech except I don't think the market is buying MSFT's Vista as an engine to stimulate demand.

The model portfolio is 2.84% and the benchmark is -.66%. The megacap portfolio is -1.51% but I'm working on that one and will reconstitute it to make it a more realistic test - there are stocks in there I wouldn't buy with Jimmy Crack Corn Pone's money.

The Q's spent all day threatening R1 but never quite getting there and of course you all remember what the USDYEN picture looked like this morning. Well that's the way it look this afternoon. Sideways and flat.

NewMoMo still hasn't signaled all clear yet and it probably will take another day.

The VIX is in neutral, but the INDU ATR had a legitimate pull back today to 139.14 on an up day. That is what we want to see - green closes with the ATR pulling down. As long as that pattern continues we will dig our way out of this hole.

The four indices and GS posted mixed in the last hour - more butt scratching. A lot of traders take the days before expiry off - just not worth the effort I guess. The up/down ratio is 58% which is still neutral but leaning towards nothing to buy.

I hate to say it but it looks like we are going to have yet another day like today tomorrow. Up but barely.

The coin disagrees - the coin says tails - bear market tomorrow.

We both got today right so - - the score now stands at Marlyn 20 - 14 and 6 and the coin is 18 - 18 and 6.

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