Monday, March 19, 2007

Wrapping Monday

I mentioned earlier that I dumped out of NFI and made a nice piece of change on it. I put KNOT in the portfolio. SOHU is becoming a giant disappointment and it has tomorrow to get over 22.5 and stay or it is gone. It is profitable now but I'm wasting time and opportunity watching it yo-yo around. GGB and STD are still doing OK and I'm keeping them for a bit more.

The three amigos AAPL, GOOG, and MSFT all caught some bids today and I'm not sure what that means going forward but it is nice to see tech join in the rally. Why the market rallied I haven't a clue. But rally it did and I'm not complaining - just worrying.

The other day I posted a new method designed to catch stocks for an overnight trade (Maybe a Solution) - it didn't put any out today but it did put out ALO from Friday afternoon and ALO jumped up with the rest of them this morning and made 35 cents in a blink of an eye. It flattened out after that but held a quarter gain all day. I didn't have it but I did want to point out one thing - in the past 4 days that filter has output 9 stocks and every single one of them made some kind of money the next day. I do want to make it clear though - this filter is designed for one thing and one thing only and that is to catch a jumper the next day. I wouldn't use it any other way and it is a very dangerous way to play.

The Dow Industrials had a booming day meanwhile the ATR keeps falling and is now at 133.41. Every little bit helps.

SBUX actually made a few more cents today. It might even pull itself out of that pit that it's in and become something. GOOG, MSFT and AAPL all went up today too - it's nice to see the hardcore tech join in a rally for a change.

We're in a little bit of a bind because NewMoMo didn't descend below -0.005 but instead turned around again and went back up. This isn't unprecedented and could result in a nice run. Of course if it spikes up again we will probably have another hard day down. We'll see.

The model portfolio is at 3.63 and the benchmark is at -0.14 so we are still beating the averages handily with our distressed good stocks list from February 28th.

The VIX is back to more than 5% below its 10-day average and that isn't very good for a sustained rally. The up/down ratio tipped the scales at 60% and I think there it will be a quiet day tomorrow and we might even see some profit taking by the dippers.

So I'm forecasting tomorrow as a down day - mostly because we simply can't have two up days in a row any more.

The coin says ... heads - up day.

The score now stands at Marlyn 21 - 15 and 6 and the coin is 20 - 18 and 6.


Bullish Jim said...

My profit in SBUX is now all the way into the double digits (in dollars, not percentage points). There must be only several thousand stocks that could have given me that kind of return over the past couple weeks... :)

JOSEPH said...

This was left from Sunday

JOSEPH said...
with regards to new pivot method it visually appears that ATR5 w/ 3sma & AvgC3 outperforms ATR4 w/4sma & AvgC4.
Are you also stating that as long as AvgCn > Avgn of ATRn then continue to treat stock in bullish mode?

3:14 PM

JOSEPH said...

In Maybe a Solution what kind of moving average is cma?

Marlyn Trades said...

Joseph - I'm not quite sure what AvgCn > Avgn of ATRn means and I don't ever speak about trending as a method on the site except to mention it. I'll post on this later.

As for 'CMA' in Maybe .. - that stands for "custom" moving average which is a feature of stockfetcher and permits you to average anything.

JOSEPH said...

AvgC"n" > Avg "n" of ATR "n"

with "n" meaning number fot time. n can be any number one decides to plug into a formula.

Good Trading Today!

Marlyn Trades said...

Yes I know that - it is "AvgC" and "Avg" without anything else that I am curious about. Average of "what"?

JOSEPH said...

Average of Close and Average of ATR

Marlyn Trades said...

Joseph - I've been a little distracted lately I should have figured that out for myself - sorry -

I'm working on something else right now but I'll address that idea in another post. There is some merit to what you are saying.


Mondays where its at.