Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Wednesday Wraps

I planted a rose bush - and that was good. A beautiful hybrid flora bunda called Purple Passion. The one I had to replace - a real old timer just a while past its prime scratched me up something fierce and I guarantee I made sounds like purple passion.

This morning right after the market opened I bought some KNOT and it actually finished up a few bucks. I also grabbed SPF off the BOB set-up filter. Turned out not to be a great selection but I'm going to hold it for a bounce tomorrow. RSH round-tripped from 0 to 0 again and if that is the worst thing that happens to you be grateful. OI round-tripped and added a penny. IN went up a quarter (again against the market) and the rest held their ground. I'm expecting a huge bounce tomorrow morning and we'll get to the reasons why presently. If I get the bounce I'm going to rebalance the core portfolio, get rid of the dogs, and put the proceeds into as many stocks as I can on the following list.

This is a list of stocks that have gone up since Friday - that's right - gone up while the market was collapsing. These are stocks I want to own. The list is in Average True Range Order because when faced with choices I want to take the most volatile first.

And it is not without a touch of sadness that I note that the first one on the list - GRA - I actually owned several weeks ago and dumped it because "it wasn't going anywhere" - what a maroon. See, what do I always tell you - Rule 1 - after Rule 1 you don't need any other rules.

The three amigos, GOOG, AAPL and MSFT all dropped a bit today with MSFT doing the best of all and AAPL doing worst. Can't expect much different given the kind of day it was.

The model portfolio lost a bit more to 6.02% which isn't that bad and the baseline is down to .93%. I'm going to start model portfolio 2 with the stocks on the list above and we'll see where that goes over the next couple of weeks. I'm going to simulate a buy at the close today.

The INDU ATR went down some more to 109.40 and the VIX is now 6% over its 10-period moving average. The up/down ratio actually got a bit worse but only to 29% and this guy split the line today.

The last time it did that the market turned and started going up immediately.

I'm thinking that there are a lot of good stocks sitting on the "buy me at a discount" table right now and we might see some of the fund managers step in tomorrow and start taking some off with an eye on next quarter. The numbers above all say that we are do for a reversal of fortune and I find myself well positioned to take advantage of any bounce that comes. I'm forecasting tomorrow up.

The coin, after being beaten up today, calls tomorrow ... Tails - bear market.

The score is now - Marlyn 23 - 20 and 8 and the coin is 24 - 19 and 8.


JOSEPH said...

range 032807 21.84 H 21.50 L
032707 21.90 H 21.50 L

Did you mean a different stock that you bought after the open that was UP a couple of bucks?

Marlyn Trades said...

I'm sorry - to clarify I bought it at 21.64 - it closed at 21.69 and I made a few dollars off of that nickle range based on the number of shares I bought. I didn't mean that KNOT went up a couple of dollars.


Some nice interesting topics.