Friday, March 02, 2007

Friday Finally Wraps

Oh wow! - The only thing I made money on today was the day trade I took this morning, STRL, and also on AKS. I took STRL off R1 as it passed it from the pivot and rode it past R2. When it turned around I sold it and pocketed 39 cents. My RSI(2) < 5 filter output STRL plus many others. I put the top 10 in a Quote Tracker portfolio then watched for movement.

I sold AKS early to lock in the profits and then re-acquired this afternoon as a result of a 15-minute BOB. I was stopped out of GRA this morning but bought it back again this afternoon at the S1 pivot point as it looked as if it were going to rally there. It went down some more and then turned around. Despite the drop, TIE remained above the stop loss so I still hold it. That leaves AKS, GRA and TIE in the trading portfolio the rest either stopped out, or, as in the case of XING, sold off.

Costly day all told but if it weren't for stop losses and the two profitable trades I took it would have been worse.

The market is seriously oversold but the dip buyers should be out next week as it is time for the 401K money again. The three friends (GOOG, MSFT, and AAPL) all lost with MSFT being the winner as it only dropped 11 cents. GOOG continues going down and someplace down here it has to hit a rally spot.

It could be trying to close the gap between 420 and 460 and maybe 420 is the rally point. It is, after all, still 100 points higher than it was a year ago so there is no need to panic just yet. It also has dropped though the EMA 90 and the last time it did that it hurried back up and passed through it again. Next week the 401K money hits and if GOOG is going to move it will move then.

I'm still not certain what happened to gold and silver this week - generally in a market decline you would expect to see them become more valuable because that's what the gold bugs want to have happen (you can tell that I'm joking - right?). If the gold bugs really knew what they were talking about gold would be over $2000 an ounce right now. Obviously a lot of people who have huge sums of money don't believe that gold or silver are viable investments and would rather put their money into something with real value. Today that was CAPS -

Just 1 among 1788 other stocks that went up in value today - of course none of them was in my portfolio. That makes the up/down ratio 22% - that is deep in oversold territory.

This morning I ridiculed Jimmy Crack CP once more and showed you FRO and DGX. After I put them up they both flattened out and pretty much stayed right where they were for the rest of the day. Still the stock he "nixes" is the one going up while the triple buy is going down - I feel sorry for the DGX buyers - especially those who bought because he said buy, buy, buy.

The model portfolio is down 2.04% and the benchmark is down 1.03%. Not a good showing. But Monday will be better.

Here's some good news - at the end of the day the Q's RSI(2) was 1.26, the DIA was 2.35, and the SPY was 2.02. Most of the stocks in my model portfolio are under 5. Earlier this week we talked about setting a filter that only keyed off of stocks that were RSI(2) < 5 when the SPY was also RSI(2) < 5. Well - guess what - we have a real time filter beginning Monday. This ought to be pretty good.

This indicator is really, really, really oversold now - this is lower than it was back in the summer last year. Not by much but enough.

Take it all together and it spells up on Monday. Of course I'll be going against all the wimpy traders who passed around a rumor all afternoon that the market was going to collapse on Monday. But as always - if you aren't fearless you don't belong in this business. And, needless to say I'm not perfect either - but either way the market goes you have tools to take advantage of it - so do so.

Meanwhile the coin says ... heads - also looking for a bull market.

Having missed today by more than a little the score is now Marlyn 16 - 14 and 5 and the coin is 14 - 16 and 5.

Going to have some great posts this weekend so come back often. I'm also going to start looking into RSS for the site - I'm sure many of you would prefer that to atom - whatever that is.