I'm Sorry

I think I owe all of the happy holders of GOOG a big apology and that guy I ripped up last month for buying GOOG for all of his clients - I apologize from the bottom of my - wait a minute - let's look at this from a technical perspective. I present GOOG -


and, as you can see there was a big ol' cross over on 5/16 and I don't know how many times I've written about cross overs on this site but I do know it's been more than once. So - seeing that cross over if you didn't jump aboard the GOOG express then you have no one to fault but your... - wait a minute - let's look at this from yet one more perspective -

Had you owned GOOG on 4/23 and seeing this -


An AAPL cross over and had you remembered what I said back in April that AAPL would see 90 before it saw 100 and that it was coming off of 90 and had you sold your GOOG shares on 4/23 you could have bought 5 AAPL shares for every GOOG share you owned on that date.

But let's say, for the sake of argument that you kept your GOOG shares instead of selling them and GOOG has gone from the 480 where it was on that date (4/23) to 515 where it finished today you would have earned - 7% plus. On the other hand, had you sold your GOOG on that date and bought 5 AAPL shares for every share of GOOG that you sold you would have bought AAPL at 94 and today you would be looking at 32% appreciation except that you would own 5 times the number of GOOG shares and that would mean that in comparison to GOOG you would have gained 160% on your GOOG money.

Maybe I'm not sorry after all for telling people to dump the albatross and to use cross overs as a buying indicator. The most powerful indicator there is - a cross over unless it is a cross over that is following a BOB.

Wrapping Thursday

Played golf again today and am planning to play again tomorrow. Can't shake the spring fever and sitting behind a computer screen all day is not the cure.

And then there were two - I'm down to GGB and JNPR and I will stay in this holding pattern for awhile longer. The model portfolio lost again today to 16.60 and the benchmark printed 7.77. But the IBD Top Ten actually gained a bit to finish at -1.72. Almost all of the action has been in one stock, TNH, which has both dropped 5 points and gained 5 points in the last three days. So for all practical purposes, remove that stock and it is printing -3.02. So you take out a break even stock and the top ten are busy slipping away. I won't report it for a few days now - we'll check back in next week.

The three Amigos are back to normal - AAPL is advancing, GOOG is declining, and MSFT is going sideways having lost 9 cents today. You can have your investments in all three of them - they, to put it plainly, suck.

The VIX remains in neutral, the up/down ratio is at 44% which is also neutral, and the NewMoMo is also at neutral -


The INDU ATR went up a couple of points to 97.55 which means that the rally will continue and despite the neutrality in everything else tomorrow might be an up day.

I'm looking for an up day tomorrow. The coin is looking for an ... tails - down day tomorrow.

I hit today and the coin missed that makes the score Marlyn 36 - 29 and 15 and the coin is 38 - 26 and 15.

See you tomorrow.

Wrapping Monday

What a boring day. The market is waiting for the CPI data - the market already knows that there will be inflation in it so why it is waiting I don't know but that's the headline story so it's what we'll go with. Maybe there will be a CPI surprise but I doubt it - I smell inflation in the air. But if it comes in .0001% less than the expected then watch out above. To business -

I bought and sold and re-bought USU today. Once this morning and once this afternoon. I sold of AKS and I'm done with it. I'll wait for the next major pullback - I think that stock is finished. I bought (only once) ANO and even though it lost 6 cents on me I'll hold it for awhile. I managed to round out GGB to a full position and now I'm done with that one. If it doesn't continue to rise I'll sell it just as quickly as I bought it back.

There isn't much in the market any more that looks very appealing. I'm still holding BGG and AV and the latter went up today and the former didn't.

At one time today the VIX was actually more than 10% over its 10 day MA and now it is back to neutral.

The model portfolio lost 1.88 to 17.63 and the benchmark lost .21 to 7.24. The benchmark is doing a lot better in a down market than the model. That is to be expected because the model has a lot of high beta stocks in it and they will gain quickly and lose quickly too. It is not a balanced portfolio only a growth portfolio.

AAPL continues the march forward, GOOG continues the retreat, and MSFT continues to go sideways.

The INDU ATR printed 91.23 and that means that the rally will continue (after a small pause).

This guy went down some more -


and that is goodness because what it is showing is a coiling action in preparation of an explosive move up. Well I think so, anyway.

The up/down ratio printed 33% which is in the oversold territory.

As always I'll go with the up/down ratio and call tomorrow an up day.

The coin follows my lead although I don't know why and also calls for an up day.

This was one more split day - they are becoming routine and that has to mean something although what I don't know. Anyway the score stands at Marlyn 34 - 29 and 14 and the coin is 37 - 25 and 14.

See you tomorrow.

Supply and Demand

I just read an article in Seeking Alpha by a guy who will never manage any of my cash.

Google: Believe It or Not, The Stock Looks Cheap

He says -

I have been warming up to shares of Google (GOOG) more and more as of late because the stock has been dead money while the company's impressive growth continues. The result of that dichotomy has been a share price that is getting more reasonable on a valuation basis. On Thursday, I began initiating Google positions in some of my accounts that had sizable cash reserves

This guy's thesis is that the market is oversold and one has to be careful where one puts one's money in an oversold market. So he is going to park his client's money in GOOG to protect it. That's not moronic - that's almost criminal.

Here is a chart of GOOG


Now keep in mind that I am not the sharpest tool in the shed - but if the company's impressive growth continues why hasn't the impressive growth in its share price continued as well? In fact, how can a company with such a amazing future predicted growth have shares that are decreasing in value?

There can only be one answer to that question. There are too many shares for sale at ever lower prices.

That is such an important concept that I will repeat it - there are TOO MANY SHARES available FOR SALE at EVER LOWER PRICES. Sorry but I had to shout those words so the hard of learning would get the message too.

The stock market is a world of supply and demand. When there buyers (demand) price goes up until it hits a level where someone is willing to sell. If the demand continues then the price will continue to rise. When there are sellers (supply) price goes down until someone is willing to buy and price will continue to drop as long as no buyers are willing to take the offer.

What stimulates buying (demand)? The perception that the stock will be going up in price. What stimulates selling (supply)? The perception that the stock will be going down in price. Note that I said "perception" - there is no reality more powerful than the "perception" of a move in a stock's price and the perception for GOOG just doesn't exist.

So if that's the case what is the case for GOOG to go up? Oh that's right I remember now - it's done nothing for so long it has to do something - someday.

Friday Wraps

OMGIF! A nice recovery was had by all and right off the bat I want to show you something you might have missed. Here is the INDU over the past two days - can anyone spot the common feature?


That's right - both days began with a cross over! Yesterday the cross over said - "going down" - today it said - "going up". Could anything be more obvious?

I sold KNOT for a small profit, a bit more than a happy meal but I'm not going to eat at Ruth's Chris tonight either. Actually the Bride is in the kitchen whipping up her famous Italian sausage, meatballs and spaghetti, and the entire house is in a garlic stupor.

Anyway I'm back in AKS because it seems to want to continue to go up from here and the bulk up in GGB and BGG yesterday afternoon paid dividends today and then some more. I also made a play in AV again and I'll share that with you in a separate post. We'll run through that trade for you and I'll show the new folks how I use QuoteTracker in my daily business. Not that you would do it the same way but it might get you started on an easy path.

The three Amigos are signaling that all is right with the tech world. GOOG made 5 and change, AAPL made 1 and some and MSFT, the most loved stock of all time, second only to GM, returned 31 cents for its loyal followers. I'm not sure who doesn't own MSFT who needs to own MSFT and why they would pay 31 cents more than the going price for the privilege but as Barnum said - there's a sucker born every minute...

The INDU ATR made a beeline back into the 90's today and that is goodness because it means - all together now - the rally will continue.

My model portfolio started a nice recovery and brought back 2.17% to close at 19.89% and the benchmark still lags at 7.39. For those of you who don't have calculators that's 12.50% in alpha off a portfolio that I threw together on February 28th in about 15 minutes time without regard to fundamentals, sector analysis or anything other than pure TA. I gotta ask - did your mutual fund make 12.5% alpha in the last 2 and a half months? Or was it closer to the benchmark?

This guy remains below -0.005% and that is OK - and even though I sound all chipper and happy I was kind of hoping for another down day or two.



The VIX remains in neutral and the up/down ratio printed 68%.

I think yesterday was an aberration, today is just an aftershock, and all of this means we probably go down now for a couple of days. Don't be surprised.

The coin says ... tails - down also - wiseass coin is reading this and then making its predictions - that's just not right.

And again we both hit it today so the score is now Marlyn 34 - 29 and 13 and the coin is 37 - 25 and 13.

Wednesday Wraps

I had a good day and I hope you did too. Kind of hard not to the way the market is flowing. The Fed announcement caused a little froth not much more than that. I was watching the Forex screens and they told me all I needed to know quickly. I.E. - the market was going to resume its climb.

I added to AKS on a pullback just before the Fed announcement. Apparently the traders liked what they heard and AKS went up again. I added to BGG twice today although I'm sure I'm just being a bit irrational but I like the stock, I like the way it goes up most of the time, and I like making money. I'm still holding KNOT but didn't add to it although if it pulls back a bit tomorrow I may then. Still holding GGB and I should have added to it at least at 10 A.M. today but I didn't - my lost opportunity. Can anyone tell me why I should have added at 10?


Everyone who said - "Cross Over!" wins. However, a careful examination of the chart suggests that the Return to 4 at 11:00 was also a good opportunity to add. It pays to watch your swing trades and to take advantage of the opportunities they provide.

I sold out my AV shares including the part I bought this morning. Made a very nice profit on the transaction - about 5% in 5 days. Is it done? I don't know but I know I am for the time being. Will I play it again? Sure it may set up nice once more - right now it appears to be a bit oversold - the RSI(2) is > 95.

If you recall AV was purchased off a silly filter that I call 12 to 18 and rising - which describes it perfectly. I was looking for some cheap stocks that might have had a bit of interest in them. AV apparently has. If I get a pullback I might get back in. Again, let's try to guess why I bought more AV this morning.


Can't fool you guys can I? How hard is this? And yes, these are the 30-minute charts - it's a good idea on Fed day to use longer term charts because the market generally is moving slowly.

I sold out the MENT shares - I should have held them for another 15 minutes and I would have made a buck or two but as it was I lost $3 including R/T commission.

How quickly the mighty fall. Here is poor DNDN - a stock I made some money on a couple of weeks ago - down 64% today because the FDA wants some more information regarding their prostate cancer drug. Why the market sees that as a major negative is beyond me but it does and now DNDN is just another bio-crappa in the crapper.


The best part - one of the anal-holes covering the stock, upon seeing it drop 64% on the open, changed his rating from "Buy" to "Hold". Isn't that amazing? Like what else are you going to do with this piece of crap now? Do you think anyone who is responsible for any kind of real money actually pays any attention to those morons? No, they don't and neither should you. Analysts still exist for one reason only - to give the Broker help in fleecing the retail trade. And you can quote me. Thank God for the Internet - the only reason I talk to my brokerage is to give 'em hell when the interface fails.

The model portfolio put another 2% on today and is printing 20.15 while the benchmark is up .35 to 7.76. Still a lot of alpha for a rookie - don't you think?

The three Amigos didn't disappoint - AAPL managed another $1.82 and GOOG got some interest and added $2.44 and MSFT, my favorite, returned another 3 cents to its loyal followers. I looked at the charts and I think AAPL has more room to run, GOOG is as range bound as Mr. Softy, and Mr. Softy is drying up and going down.

Speaking of going down - the INDU ATR broke below 80 today, printing 79.24 at the close. I've said over and over that a break below 80 could mean a couple of soft days ahead so don't be surprised if we see the market dropping a bit starting tomorrow or Friday. Usually it just goes down to the 21 EMA which is about 300 points away right now. That wouldn't be too bad.

The VIX remained neutral and the up/down ratio hit 56% which is also neutral. The NewMoMo is also in neutral but it does show a down slope.


I'm calling tomorrow down just because it has to go down eventually.

The coin is calling tomorrow ... tails - also down.

We both hit it again today so the score is now Marlyn 31 - 29 and 13 and the coin is 35 - 25 and 13.

Some Cross Overs

Here is a double cross -


I have no idea of the significance of this but I don't think it is good. HANS is an extremely volatile stock but this is ridiculous. I'm going to want to watch this for a bit to see which way it goes.

Here is HANS on a 3-day 30-minute version.


I'm showing you this because there is a cross over on the second day of this chart in the 2:30 bar. This crossover follows through into the next hour - but you know my rule - if you buy on the minute charts you should sell on the minute charts and not hold overnight. That would have been a very nice profit even so. You would have purchased at 38.40 and sold around 40.40 and 2 bucks in an hours nets out to a whole bunch annualized. I'm a purist with this indicator - the third bar of the second day is not a cross over because it didn't close above the averages. And if you made a mistake and took it as a cross over with your stop below the open of the that bar you would have been stopped out a bit later in the day.

Another chart I wanted to show you is RIMM.

There's no deep lesson here - just wanted to show you how the cross over works for expensive stocks too.

Still another is AAPL -


The cross over was back on 4/23 - a purchase on 4/24 would have reaped a nice profit over the next 10 days.

And here is MSFT -


The crossover came on 4/12. Note how the stock never dipped below that open and also note that the averages were in correct order (4 over 8 over 21) at this cross over. This too would have been a nice profit - at least as nice as they get with MSFT.

And finally the last of the three amigos, the final stooge - GOOG -


I'm showing GOOG to demonstrate the anti-cross - the reverse cross over. That occurred on 4/30. It was negated on 5/03 by a normal cross and that was negated by yet another anti-cross on 05/07. Stay tuned - which way do you think GOOG is going to go?

Wrapping Tuesday

It was a down day - well for most of the day anyway. The few points off the DOW INDU is nothing to be concerned with - although the bobbleheads on bubblevision will probably try to make it a crisis. Nothing goes down during 401K week. Next week - different story.

You'll have to look it up - but two days after I sell my AKS holdings it pops on a takeover report. It looks valid but you never know. I managed to get a little back (I said I'd buy it over $32) although I missed most of today's move. However, if the report is factual and 40 dollars is the bid then we should see some additional movement over the next couple of weeks.

Still holding AV, GGB, and BGG. I sold about a third of my AV for a small loss and had I held it to close of business it would have been a small profit - but I have no patience for crappy stocks. Even though it went up yesterday it is just bouncing around with no apparent trend in sight. I hate cheap stocks. Speaking of which (cheap stocks) good old CMGI took off for parts unknown (at least not since 1999) today.

BGG is becoming my new darling - I keep looking for a pullback so I can buy more but it won't so I won't. I bought that off a cross over and it has paid super dividends since. The more I look at the cross over stocks the more I like them.


The cross over is on 05/01. This is a simple enough method - just wait for a stock to open below the three primary EMA (4, 8 and 21) and close above them and take a position. Put your stop (physical or mental) below the open. It works on every time frame from minutes to months.

CMGI could have been a cross over play too -


I've published a lot of cross over charts and will put some more up later - a couple of good ones.

The three amigos had a mixed day - AAPL went up a buck and change, GOOG went down change and MSFT made 4 cents for its loyal followers. You have to be so in love with Bill Gates that you'd be willing to have his baby in order to justify your love of this stock. Why did AAPL go up today? Nobody knows including AAPL.

KNOT broke out today - why does that figure - market goes up strong - KNOT drops - market has so so day - KNOT goes up. Not enough for a cross over but enough to keep an eye on.

There is another play which is the non-cross over - this is when a stock just kind of drifts up through its averages but never with a strong up thrust. Watch out for this kind of stock because generally (again a weasel word) they just go sideways from there. They are flattening out and that is never a good situation - at least not for either a swing or day trade.

The model portfolio went up .15 to 17.79% and the benchmark lost .07 to 7.44%.

The INDU ATR is down a bit more to 85.62 - remember 80 is the key - a break of 80 low and we should get a pull back in the averages in the next couple of days.

The VIX remains neutral which is its favorite configuration and the up/down ratio printed a 40% which is also on the edge of neutral and this indicator is also neutral -

But I will say this - the last time it was like this (7 months ago) the market went down for a couple of days before it resumed its every climbing ways.

Bottom line? I don't have a clue - I think we get a good day tomorrow and then a bit of weakness through the rest of the week and maybe through the rest of the month.

The coin says heads ... calling for an up day tomorrow.

Monday was another mixed day tie so the score is now Marlyn 30 - 29 and 13 and the coin is 34 - 25 and 13.

Friday Wraps

TGIF - even us retired guys like weekends.

The market was up again but that was expected – today the 401K money started coming into the market and by law it has to be invested. So by cracky they began buying overpriced crap and made it even more overpriced.

I had an uneventful day. I sold off just about everything and am about to sell off the rest. I’m still holding GGB (through earnings which turned out to be a non-event), BGG, and AV. That was a mistake – I hate cheap stocks and have to take profits on them when they present. If I don’t then I will take a loss – it always happens that way because I haven’t got the patience necessary to wait for two weeks while the stock makes a couple of cents a day. I’m always thinking about the money that I could be making whenever I’m trapped in a crappy trade. Live and learn. Anyway I'll be out of town on Monday so AV has one more day to cause me grief but it is either up Tuesday morning or gone.

AKS was behaving as many stocks do post earnings – they go up for a couple of days, hit a ceiling and then start collapsing back on themselves. Watch your stocks when they go through earnings and see if this doesn’t happen. I’ll probably buy it back again the next time the market goes down a bit. If that ever happens again someone wake me up. I'll buy it back again when it closes over 32.00.


It's still a good company with a lot of room to run.

HST turned out to be a disappointment. It just rolled over and blew away. I didn’t like the action so I put the stop up tight under a pivot point and it managed to hit it. I don’t know if it will recover next week or not. I’ll watch it and if it does I'll take another shot.

The model portfolio went up .47% to 16.59% and the benchmark also went up by .38 to 7.50%. The model is still ahead and will probably stay there although I think it will need some maintenance on the next market drop.

The three Amigos are still not really participating in the rally – the MSFT-buys-YHOO story kind of blew the wind out of GOOG’s sails although why I don’t know – do you think the GOOG ownership is getting antsy? I do. MSFT went back down into its range bound muck and AAPL made 40 cents or so. YHOO was up strong and then faded away. Jimmy Crack Corn Pone had a story about YHOO today but he's so full of crap it's sad.

The INDU ATR fell to 87.98 today and that is goodness. We desperately need a correction, everyone knows it but everyone is afraid to stop buying for fear an already oversold stock will become more oversold and they won’t have it in the corral. And when I say everyone I’m not talking about the handful of retail traders – I’m talking about the big guns out there.

The VIX remains in neutral relative to its 10-period MA and the up/down ratio printed 53.40%. That’s neutral too. The NewMoMo remains orbiting 0 and that is also a neutral position.


For Monday I’m looking at another dry day like today – up but not by much.

The coin says tails – calling for a down day on Monday.

We both got another one right and the score is now Marlyn 30 - 29 and 12 and the coin is 34 - 25 and 12.

I'll be back over the weekend with some more posts regarding BOB - I'll show you a couple of charts.

Wrapping Thursday

I don't know where all the liquidity is coming from - it's a day or two too early for the 401K money which usually takes 3 days from the 1st of the month to make the transition (even in the digital age). So I haven't got a clue. Normally I would expect a couple of breather days and then a few boom days but this is somewhat ridiculous. Oh well, whatever - I'm taking advantage of it as you should be and let the devil take the hindmost. Once again - take what the market gives you and don't fight the tape neither up nor down.

I'm still holding a position in AKS, BGG, and GBB. I'm also holding HST and AV. The only one that was a disappointment today was HST but I expect that one to get back on track during the next week or so. Once the 401K money starts coming into the market the funds will start buying it back as it is one of the beloved stocks. How do I know that? - Simple - I just look at how much the 'toot's held in the last quarter and that was 98.8% of the float - that means that they sold a ton of it off when the earnings announcement came out several days ago and now they are in the process of buying it back again. That's how the game is played - supply and demand - good stocks are always in demand and the supply is always small.

The model portfolio went up .73% to 16.04% and the benchmark beat it for the first time ever by going up .81% to 7.09% - go benchmark - The model portfolio still has a bunch of alpha.

The three amigos were all over the map - GOOG made 7+ bucks today and MSFT made another 30 cents or so. Truth be known - if I could bank on MSFT making 30 cents a day from now on I would own a lot of MSFT. AAPL returned all of one penny to its loyal followers - yes - that's one cent - 100 shares gets you to the dollar menu at Mickey D's you lucky dog you. They are still not participating with all of the spirit that I would expect in any kind of stock market rally so I say the rally is soft.

The VIX is still in neutral but the up/down ratio dropped to 53.98% which it can do even in an up market - in other words a lot of stocks went down today even in the face of rising indices. The INDU ATR printed 98.17 and that is down a bit from yesterday but the rally will continue on that good news.

This guy remains split -


but leaning towards an up day. And even though I haven't got a snowball's chance in hell of calling tomorrow correctly - I'm still going with an up day. That's right - 401K money comes in and the market goes up.

The coin says ... heads - also calling for an up day.

Well we both missed again so the score is now Marlyn 29 - 29 and 12 and the coin is 33 - 25 and 12.

Wrapping Wednesday

Well I guess that's what happened - up through R2 and drift sideways to the close.

AKS did well today. I'm still not sure whether I'm going to hold GGB through earnings or not. At least it went up today which is different from the last couple of days. I hate dumping stocks that are first - going up into earnings and second - in a sector where more companies are doing well than not. I think US Steel has everyone spooked because they guided lower for the second quarter. I know it has me spooked.

The BGG trade is working well - it's up off the buy price significantly. I sold AV too soon but I made 30 cents each on a boat load of shares and that isn't too shabby - could have made another 12 - 15 cents had I held it but why be greedy. It will still be there tomorrow. (I also can't help but notice that I'm holding one stock named GGB and one stock named BGG - a coincidence - I hope so).

I found AV using a new filter I'm working on that looks for stocks between 12 and 18 with an average volume over 90 days greater than 500K shares and the close is greater than the close 5 days ago. There are a couple of other points but that is the basis of the filter the rest are just to shake out the pretenders. For a day trade filter what more could you want - it puts out a ton of stocks but I only watch the first 10 by yesterday's volume and if I get some action - so be it. The top three picks this morning were BSX, SYMC and AV. Both BSX and SYMC had cross over formations but AV was a return to 4 - and it was first to set-up. You're welcome to try this yourselves if you want to do some day trading on stocks that seem to want to go up.

Why 12 to 18? Because I'm looking at lower volatility (average true range) for day trading. I'm tired of the momo monkeys - I want to make my money in a more leisurely manner.

The model portfolio went up 2.78% today to 15.20% and I'm pretty sure your mutual fund didn't do as well. The benchmark went up .87 to 6.52%.

The three amigos sent out mixed signals today. AAPL did well and went back over 100 but - that was only .92% - the model portfolio had 10 out of 12 stocks go up over 1.45% today. Doesn't seem right that such a wildly successful company does so poorly. MSFT, of course, remains range bound and I'm still not sure why people are in this stock - maybe it's the dividend - yeah - that's it - the dividend - so remind me again why you are still holding GOOG? Still waiting for the short squeeze - notice that Jimmy Crack Corn Pone has removed it from his radar?

Speaking of momo - NewMoMo made a turn back up today and I don't particularly like that. If we don't get some quality time lower we are just going to struggle to go higher.


The INDU ATR went up again to 102.50 and that means - all together now - the rally will continue. Now I know it can't go up every single day but the fact is it won't or shouldn't go down strong until the ATR drops below 80. At least that's been the way it has worked for a number of years now.

The VIX is back to neutral but the up/down ratio is at 70% and that might mean a little less exuberance tomorrow and maybe even into Friday.

I've got to go with the up/down ratio and that suggests that we probably have an off day tomorrow. That's OK - we need a little rain every once in awhile - helps the garden grow.

Coin also sees a down day tomorrow --- flipped a tail.


The coin and I hit it again so the score is now Marlyn 29 - 28 and 12 and the coin is 33 - 24 and 12.

Wrapping Tuesday

Interesting day - even though the market wanted to sell off it couldn't because too many stocks were already sold - remember last night's up/down ratio. The up/down ratio is the key to the following day especially when it is printing below 40.

Before I left to play golf I bought back a portion of AKS (25%) and it went up from where I bought it at the bottom of the day. I'm still holding a half load of GGB and won't add until after earnings. Although I'm still not sure I will hold it through earnings - it isn't behaving correctly and I'm concerned.

The model portfolio appears to be getting tired - it went down again today to 12.08% while the benchmark moved up some to 5.9%.

The three amigos behaved poorly as well. GOOG keeps dropping and AAPL is back below 100 and MSFT remains range bound. That doesn't really bode well for the coming months that when the market goes up these three go nowhere.

The VIX is back to neutral as is the up/down ratio and the only thing we have going for us right now but it isn't really showing much is the NewMoMo -


The INDU ATR is back to 100.01 and so the rally will continue.

My forecast for tomorrow - another up day - after all the 401K money is starting to flow into the market again.

The coin says --- heads - also an up day.

Well the coin and I both nailed it so the score is now Marlyn 28 - 28 and 12 and the coin is 32 - 24 and 12.

Good trading on the morrow.

Wrapping Friday

Another record. That's nuts. Now we go into the new month (well technically still one day left in this one) and the new money comes into the market.

We've had some crazy moves today - it was raining most of the day so I couldn't get outside much and spent the day glued to my screens. Just as well - I had a couple of opportunities and I took advantage of them. I bought DPTR off a cross over but was premature. I'm holding it through the next couple of days because I expect the market will take off again next week. I added a little to GGB and a little to AKS. GGB is about half weight now and AKS is 90%. I'm still holding JST and will give it another couple of days and if it doesn't move with the market next week - it will be gone.

Here's a story on me - I bought a couple hundred shares of MFE this morning just because I wanted some tech exposure, I like the company and it pulling back from a rise. As is my habit (for want of a better word) I put a 25-cent stop below my buy price and hardwired it into the account. I hit the transaction button and then switched to the accounts screen to ensure all was OK - I couldn't find MFE. Totally confused I went to the stop screen and still couldn't find MFE. I then switched to the execute screen and there was MFE - bought and 30 seconds later stopped out. I think the second I hit the transaction key on the stop order it triggered. Needless to say it sat right on that number for the rest of the day and closed 1 cent below it. I don't own MFE and I never will.

Here is the rest of the story on the Q's -


And isn't that a neat end to an interesting day? I don't know how to characterize this action except - wow!

The INDU ATR is down a bit to 101.44 and this guy continues to recede -


I think this means that the rally continues.

The model portfolio that I wrote about this morning lost a bit (2.31) and posted a 15.59 (ICON was the big loser on the day). The benchmark gained a few to 6.39. Still 9 points of Alpha is nothing to sneeze at.

The three amigos (winkin, blinkin, and nod) are embarrassing to say the least - MSFT broke 30 again with a 1.02 now let's see how long it can hold it - doubt it will be for long - I mean this is the stock that rang up 69% profit yesterday evening and all it can gain is 1.02. AAPL managed to pull within 8 cents of a 100 even with its 1.08 gain and GOOG resumed the fall, or the slide - whatever you want to call it.

The VIX stays in neutral which is just as well (neutral, for those who don't know the code is that region between -10 points below the 10-period moving average and 10 points above the average).

A month ago I put together (and wrote about in the BLog) what I called the "must buy" portfolio - 15 stocks that kept going up through the collapse in late March. It is now ringing up 5.22% (that's one month returns folks). I'll publish those names over the weekend. There's probably a few on there some folks would like to put in their core portfolios.

The good news is the up/down ratio is printing 39% - look out above.

For Monday I'm forecasting an up day.

Coin says tails - looking for a down day.

Coin missed, I forecast a split day with the DOW up and the COMPQ down - only got that half right so I'm giving us both a loss. The score is now Marlyn 27 - 27 and 12 and the coin is 30 - 24 and 12.

Wednesday Wrapper

Another! Record! Day! - I've covered this in my earlier post regarding volatility so let's get to business - it's hard not to make money as long as you dump the weak ones and put good ones in their place.

I did that today - I dumped KEP after expecting it to go up on a record in Korea last night and it didn't and that's what you get for buying a stock with a 37 cent ATR. Keep that in mind when you are faced with choices in the market - if the stock looks like it is about to run - a low ATR is a good thing as long as there is a high ATR at the end of the rainbow. But it wasn't looking like it was going to run having missed a wonderful opportunity.

I replaced it with another shot at DNDN which I held this time for an overnight trade - I'm hoping to catch a jump tomorrow. The fact that it didn't participate in today's festivities doesn't leave me with much hope. I also bought JST which is a stock that Bullish Jim bought and I liked the chart so much I had to have it. About mid-day it came up with an RSI(2) < 2 right on the 15's around a support point so I jumped in. It's a nice looking stock and I think it has some room to run.

Still holding AKS and GGB although GGB is starting to disappoint. I think on Friday I'll put on a tight stop and if it hits it it's gone.

A couple I could have had but chose to ignore were PKG and NI. These would have been classic Return To 4 day trades and here are the charts -




PKG was the best of the two and it turns out it announced at 10 A.M. and made triple earnings last quarter. The country runs on packaging.

Why did I choose not to participate - to be candid I'm not feeling all that great and while I can make longer term decisions with a head cold I don't like to day trade with one.

Anyway there is an interesting feature on both of these charts that I wanted you to see and remember and that is that little doji about 5 candles in on PKG - we call that an NR7 or narrowest range in 7 bars (counting two from the day before that I didn't show - it's 6 candles in on NI). That's another one of those "buy me" indicators that day traders snap up as quick as they appear.

The other thing I wanted you to observe and remember if you can is the ATR action on these two stocks. A moment ago I said a low ATR was good if the stock appeared to be ready to run again and both of these had that look about them even though they flattened out for much of the day.

The three Amigos all made money for their loyal fans today and AAPL did the best with a two buck increase. GOOG of course, that stock where one share costs 477 dollars brought home 46 cents for its fans - $4.60 on a hundred shares won't get you a happy meal folks - kids go hungry tonight. And MSFT - what a piece of crap - 20 cents - of course that's 20 times the profit from yesterday. If given the fact that not only did the DOW break records today but both the SPX and the COMPQ went up significantly as well and between them these three megacraps couldn't scrape up enough for carfare home - I have to ask again - why in hell are you holding them? Don't answer to me - answer to yourself - I'm sure you have a good reason such as "just because" or "because I wanna" or "someday that GOOG short squeeze will happen and Marlyn you'll just look stupid! stupid! stupid!"

Of course AAPL earnings rose (after hours) and the stock is up 7 and a half putting it over the magical 100. We'll see tomorrow if it can hold it. The paltry IPOD increase doesn't appear to me to be enough and, we already knew about that for about two weeks now (read Notable Calls) so what the exuberance is all about I haven't a clue.

GRA and OI, two of my former holdings, both announce after market close tonight - GRA actually went up a buck today and OI did what its been doing lately - went sideways - usually this means that GRA made and OI missed but I don't know how with the way PKG came in this morning. If they get it out before I end the wrap I'll let you know what the outcome was.

This guy went back up again -


Which as I've noted is pretty meaningless but the INDU ATR came back in a little to 109.05. That's OK - the rally continues.

The model portfolio is up another 1.09% today to 16.71 and the benchmark went up .91% to 6.47. If I get to it tomorrow I'll print out the model portfolio, the starting and current values.

The VIX remains in neutral and that's not a surprise - no one really knows what to do right at the moment - this week is all about writing options and getting inventory back up again so I doubt it (the VIX) means anything at all.

But the up/down ratio is printing 59% and that should be enough to get us a breather tomorrow. I forecast a down day.

The coin says ... tails - also looking for a down day.

Having both hit the nail on the head the score stands at Marlyn 27 - 26 and 11 and the coin is 30 - 23 and 11.

Neither GRA nor OI have made any splash at all AH so I guess they were adequate. We'll see in the morning.

Tuesday Wraps

Another pitiful day. I made money but only because I held AKS though earnings. Of course the fact that it was booming for the past 5 days or so and announced another early pension trust fund contribution on Monday didn't hurt my cause. In fact - if you are thinking about holding a stock through earnings those are the kinds of things to look for. AKS also guided higher so I believe I can hold it without a problem for a bit longer.

GGB on the other hand, the other steel company that I am holding, acted poorly yesterday and started sliding today so I sold it off - all of it. Then I reacquired a starter amount at a lower price and took on a second portion this afternoon. I'll build it up again if it resumes the upward march but I had too much profit in it to let it drift away. It will either go up and remain in the portfolio or drop and be kicked to the curb.

DNDN didn't work out as well as I thought it might - I truly expected another one and a half to two dollar day and it stalled and crashed. I dumped out this afternoon for a small loss ($130). I also dumped out of ANR this morning for a break even (including commissions) and added to KEP. I'm not sure why I like KEP except I expect the Korean's to come back tonight and that will reflect nicely on that stock tomorrow. I'm in it until Friday at the earliest (or stop out if it drops over the next couple of days).

The INDU ATR is at 105.87 and that is rising which is OK. The rally will continue. The VIX remains in neutral and NewMoMo continues to drop.


The model portfolio gained a few today to 15.46 and the benchmark printed 5.51% which is also up a small bit.

The three Amigos reflected the psychotic nature of the day with both AAPL and GOOG dropping a bit and MSFT rewarding its legion of followers with a 1 cent gain. Now that might not be much to you or me but there are over 5 billion shares in institutional hands alone - you do the math. I don't know why those 5 billion + shares are worth one cent more today than they were worth yesterday but - whatever.

The up/down ratio is at 38% so I'm going for another up day tomorrow.

The coin says ... heads - also calling for an up day.

Another tie day - the score stands at Marlyn 26 - 26 and 11 and the coin is 29 - 23 and 11.

Wraps Monday

Stocks Drop on Rising Oil Prices

You betcha they did - rising oil prices and no volatility and no liquidity and nothing to buy - oh my - oh my.

Still holding AKS and GGB and one went up and the other stayed about the same. Dropped AMAT - actually it hit a very close stop that I put in place because I didn't like the action and I was correct - see I don't need to sell them - I just put my stop up under a pivot and say - this far and no further. Try it - you'll like it.

Added to ANR at the end of the day on an RSI(2) < 2 indicator which was also at a pivot point. And I put KEP in the trading portfolio for a 5 to 10 day ride (or stop out whichever comes first). KEP comes in from my new filter - LRS going up and RSI going down that I wrote about over the weekend. The other pick from that filter was TWX and I don't like Time Warner or AOL.

Day traded DNDN off a gap up, pull back, and reverse crossing formation on the 4 minute charts - I wasn't going to stay in for a buck and change but I did.


The volume increase informed the trade and the hanging man at about 1:30 said let's get out of here. In at 15.12 out at 16.79 not a bad piece of work. I used my "gap-up" filter from stockfetcher to catch it for my gap-up watch list. I like trading stocks I've traded before - I understand how the traders work with them.

The NewMoMo is reversing again (down) and that is good -


The INDU ATR is up a bit to 100.67 which suggests a continuation of the rally. The model portfolio is at 14.97% which is up a little today and the benchmark is 5.4% down a little today.

AAPL is up a couple of bucks on news (see Notable Calls) and GOOG has lost the love from last week and dropped a couple. Still don't know what anyone sees in that stock or what they are expecting from it.

Is range bound one word or two? - Oh that's right, it's one word and it's spelled MSFT.

The VIX remains in neutral and the up/down ratio prints 40%. This is probably enough to get the market up tomorrow but I don't know how far it will go.

My forecast is up -

The coin's guess is ... heads - up also.

Wonder of wonders - technical ability beat luck for a change - the score stands at Marlyn 26 - 26 and 10 and the coin is 29 - 23 and 10.

Friday Wrappers

Wow! - I've said it before I'll say it again - when the up/down ratio drops below 35 look out above.

The money just keeps rolling in - the model portfolio is up to 14.08% and the benchmark is printing 5.74%. My trading portfolio is doing very well too. It currently contains GGB, AKS, AMAT, and the new kid - ANR. I think I'm late to the dance on ANR I should have picked up on it about 6 weeks ago but we'll hold for awhile and see where it goes. I'll share the filter I'm using for this one with you over the weekend. It is interesting.

The three amigos are doing their thing as usual and it makes me nervous when the beloved of the beloved can't move out of their own way - MSFT was up 33 cents today while remaining range bound, AAPL managed to make 70 cents today for all of its loyal followers (these are not bad numbers) and GOOG dropped about half of its increase but still managed to close up by 10 bucks. I won't bore you with how much opportunity you GOOG holders missed today - you already know that story - in three part harmony.

Going to be a short post today so let's get to the forecast - the VIX remains in neutral and the up/down ratio is now 63%. And this guy says we remain oversold and vulnerable.


The fact that it bobbed up and down and back up again in the past three days doesn't really mean anything special. The only thing that matters any more is where the up/down ratio sits and that says - down Monday.

The INDU ATR is up to 96.47 and that isn't bad. It means that while we might have a down day Monday it probably won't be multiple down days.

I'm calling for a breather on Monday and then we'll see what happens after that.

The coin meanwhile calls for ... heads - up day Monday.

The score stands at Marlyn 25 - 26 and 10 and the coin is 29 - 22 and 10 - that lucky old coin ain't got nothin' to do but roll around Marlyn's desk all day.

GOOG Reports

GOOG reports tonight and you can almost smell the fear -


Based on the fear meter reading (that little doji forming up today is a "fear meter" btw) I'm thinking that GOOG not only hits the number plus a buck, it also forecasts 40% growth going forward (for just this quarter) and guarantees a 90 dollar dividend and announces a plan for a zillion share buyback. GOOG will be 550 by this time tomorrow.

Or 450.

Wrapping Wednesday

Been gone so long I've almost forgotten how. As a test of my resolve and discipline during my vacation I went one full week without logging on to the internet. It is amazing how little I missed in that time. The political situation remains the same, the market remains the same, Jimmy Crack Corn Pone stays as crazy as ever and the only thing that has changed is me - I'm a week older and a bit smarter for the experience. I'm going to try it about once a quarter from now on. Can't hurt - might even help.

Oh well - just because we're retired doesn't mean we can slack off. Let's have a wrap -

I expected the markets to be down today and they were split but that isn't anything new anymore. After all there was a new record in the wind. Still you can't have the Dow components up and the tech components down - it just doesn't make sense. I'm not sure how INTC actually made money this quarter while fighting with AMD for market share and cutting share prices while the PC market that is supposedly doing so well is such absolute toast that the retailers are practically giving away desk tops as premiums to get you to come into their stores. Can you say "Cook(ed) Book(s)"?

I sold off GRA this morning because I didn't like the way it was progressing, to wit it lost a quarter in the week I was gone. The rest of the market went the other way and so I'm taking the quarter loss as a sign of concern regarding earnings which are coming up on the 24th. I also sold off OI based on its 20 cent loss in the past week and that too might be concern over earnings coming next week. At any rate I'm taking no chances this particular season. My current positions include KNOT, AKS, and GGB. I increased KNOT this morning off the S2 - it went up to pivot and then dropped back to S1 were it sat most of the day. And I added to AKS also - that might have been a mistake because it too is coming up on earnings and while GGB went up AKS fell back. I'll watch another day or so and then, if it keeps dropping I'll dump out on Friday until after earnings next week. No day trading today - I need a little time to get back my rhythm.

I see the Q's took a dump in the last half hour as did SPY and DIA. That's generally a concessionary movement and it suggests (only "suggests") a down day coming tomorrow.

The three amigos - GOOG, MSFT, and AAPL continued their winsome ways - these are the three most beloved stocks in the entire world because they are so profitable. MSFT had 4 days of gains and made all of 50 cents for its true believers while it continues to meander in the range we identifed about 9 months ago. GOOG is in a rising formation and will probably hit 513 any day now and after that --- boom!--- right to 520 having touched off the world's longest awaited short squeeze. And, as was predicted here first - APPL hit 90 before it hit 100. I wouldn't load up just yet there's more bad news ahead. The only reason a stock declines into earnings is fear. If AAPL puts out a bad number next week it might lose 15% before the first 5 minutes of the trading day.

The cult of MVIS had a good week but then came yesterday and the cathedral of dead money -


so cult fans - I guess it's time to sell and wait for the next pull back.

My model portfolio is printing 13.70% which is OK but a bit disappointing and another sign of future declines (rate of change is dropping). The benchmark is at 4.89%.

The VIX pulled back into the neutral zone but what I find interesting is that the INDU ATR is now approaching 80.


I gave you a two-month view on this one so you could admire my brilliance in ATR reading. I told you that when the ATR rolled over on the INDU we would have a sustained market rise. Well that happened - and, as I've mentioned before - once the ATR drops below 80 it is a danger signal and usually precedes a multi-day correction. It is currently at 82.93. So keep an eye on it.

This guy still indicates market weakness coming -


The up/down ratio says 40% and that means only one thing - an up day tomorrow regardless of what the other indicators are saying.

The coin says ... tails - down day coming.

Going back to last Monday's forecast when the coin won the score stands at Marlyn 24 - 25 and 10 and the coin is 27 - 22 and 10. I always say that I'd rather be lucky than good.

Wrapping Monday

Pretty much as expected - I did well on DNDN managed to dump out near the top for 2.65 per share - I also learned something about Philip's Set-Up which I will share with you in a different post this evening. DNDN did 78 million shares today - I wonder how many of Jimmy Crack Corn Pone's fans were seeing red as they ran to buy shares they may have once owned at a lower basis. One good thing that has come out of this - Jimmy's pronouncement did not make the stock go down. If anything it rose a tick on the word of the almighty one. That probably means that he is losing his Mojo as well as his Bull Snot "booyah". I served active 20 years and I wouldn't use that salute today because it belongs to the active combat soldier - not some useless piece of crap stock picker who never served a day in his life.

Speaking of volume the majors all did about half today - if you've ever wondered what Europe means to us then look at the volume figures on Easter Monday. And if you've ever wondered why the market trades differently in the morning vs the afternoon - Europe is the answer.

AKS didn't treat me that well today - I just don't get that stock - it goes up and then stalls and falls. To be fair it is in uncharted territory. I still haven't decided whether I'm going to hold it through earnings or not (Apr 24). If it is still going up into the date I'll hold because I like a stock rising into earnings. If it is still in a stall pattern I'll probably dump out. It is up 20.5% since February 28th and might need a rest.

I'm holding KNOT for awhile - about 10 days - or until it hits the stop loss - whichever comes first. This stock has just gone though a tremendous sell-off for absolutely no apparent reason and it might be time to buy it. Besides it owes me a few bucks and I want them back. Once I'm even we'll undo the KNOT.

I don't know how many of you noticed that AMGN - Lenny's double down nightmare - just continued to go down again today. I wonder when, if ever, he pulls the pin. And if he does, does he tell his legions of followers that he did? Based on his strategy he already needed over 14 winners to make up for his losses through Thursday - oh well - 4 days to earnings - I hope he gets a good number.

The three amigos - MSFT, AAPL, and GOOG dropped early which followed the initial market direction but then they didn't get with the program. GOOG as you know is just so much dead opportunity and has been for at least the past 6 weeks of this particular rally. Although to be fair I could go back to the beginning of the rally in November when GOOG was selling for 510 a share and say - wow did you losers miss some wonderful opportunities. But I won't - another one of Booyah Boy's 52-star back up the truck picks - still waiting for that short squeeze - Jimmy.

MSFT stays in the narrow range as does AAPL. Don't know what anyone is waiting for on that one either. Take a look at the chart - get the crash cart - it's flatlining!

What's the longest time that an RSI(2) stays below 2? About 45 minutes or three 15-minute bars worth. That's why I like that particular tell especially when it is linked to a pivot point.

OI is just drifting - I'd like to pull the pin on that one but it too is approaching earnings (4/25) and so I'll just hang on into the number. Besides at this moment I don't have anything else to do with the money. When I talk about opportunity here is what I am talking about - here is OI an old fashioned sticks and bricks company vs GOOG a modern software company. One produces real things the other produces nothing. OI broke out of a range to 18 dollars a share in November when GOOG was selling for 470 dollars a share. Let's say you sold 100 shares of GOOG at that time and converted the proceeds to buying OI - you could have bought 2600 shares of OI at a cost of 47000 dollars. Today you could sell the 2600 shares of OI for 70000 dollars (rounded). Today, if you are still holding the 100 shares of GOOG, you can sell it for 47000 dollars. That's what opportunity cost is all about. Ah - it's your money - do as you please.

I see the cult of MVIS made 2 cents today. Back up the truck, Mavis, I want to take some a dat MVIS home. Rule 1 is always in effect and if you don't know what Rule 1 is - it's simple - Nobody Knows Nothing including me. Trust no one except yourself and only when you have a bona fide set-up to support your decision. Do not ever buy a stock because you "believe" in it.

The INDU ATR dropped a little more today to 102.16. The model portfolio printed 11.965 and the benchmark hit 2.88% both up a bit.

This guy keeps rising and I'm not sure when it is going to key a drop. Of course we had another mixed day today.


The VIX is still 5% below its 10-period moving average and the up/down ratio is 44% or a tad on the over-sold side. Is it enough to move the market tomorrow - maybe - after all the 401K and IRA money is starting to flow in and it all has to go somewhere.

I'm calling tomorrow up.

The coin is calling tomorrow ... tails - down.

Another tie day - the score stands at Marlyn 24 - 24 and 10 and the coin is 26 - 22 and 10. I never paid much attention to it before but it seems to me that we are having an inordinate amount of split days this year.