Monday, March 05, 2007

Wrapping Monday

Drifting - that's the only way to describe it - at the open they gapped down to S1 or S2 then reversed and went to the pivot point and then reversed back to mid-point low (between pivot and S1) and hung out there for the rest of the day until 3:30 or so and then they just collapsed down again.

I scaled up in AKS and GRA, re-acquired GGB at an initial load. I tried to day trade MAS off the ATR/RSI filter but it reversed on me soon after I bought it. My biggest loser remains TIE. But as I showed earlier in my post on pivot points it too did the S2 to pivot point run this morning. My only regret is that I wasn't day trading it at the time. I am so glad that I dumped out of XING last week - it was down another buck and a half today - I guess it's China's stocks that are going to be punished for awhile.

The model portfolio is down 3.58 and the benchmark is down 1.5. Still not looking too good for the home team but it's early yet.

This is a good chart -

That spinner today is a sign of indecision and it could mean that the down side is done for a day or two - before you get all excited just keep in mind that it doesn't mean that the correction is over - I showed you this weekend what we need to see for that to happen - the ATR rolling over and turning down.

I looked at a lot of charts today and almost every one of them had the same look about them in the ATR and RSI windows. So we are going to have a lot of company when the market finally does turn.

The good news is the NewMoMo finally turned and as I said we might get a couple of days of respite as a result. Don't go wild - it too could turn on a dime.

I understand that CNBC is going to cover the open of the Asian markets and isn't that a waste of time. This chart tells you everything you need to know and it is continuously active 24 hours a day. Between now and 8 P.M. it shouldn't do much and then it will start coming alive again.

For those of you who are chart watchers you saw this pattern today in the US markets - imagine that. Of course you won't see this on CNBC because they are clueless.

The three technicators (GOOG, MSFT, AAPL) had a mixed day - AAPL was up the most but it too reversed after its initial run. GOOG was up about twice as much and closed mid-range. MSFT dropped another 20 cents or so. This is going to be a slow death I'm thinking. I read today where AAPL is actually starting to capture desktop and laptop market share. It's about time.

Oil and gold fell today - I don't know about you but I need some gold every time I pull up to the pump around here. Folks who know are saying that oil should stabilize around an average price of 70 dollars a barrel this year. I don't know - I don't follow it very often and I haven't a clue what the dynamic is. All I do know is that the world will run out of it eventually and even though I'll be long gone by then I'm pretty sure it will come as a surprise to our political class.

The VIX remains in an oversold configuration and the up/down ratio plunged to 18%. These two things coupled with the last hour meltdown in all the indices and GS means an up day tomorrow.

So once again I'm forecasting an up day - one of these days I'll get it right.

Mr. Magic Coin also says heads - up day tomorrow.

Well we missed another one and it could have been a slam dunk for one of us at least but - whatever - the score is now - Marlyn 16 - 15 and 5 and the coin is 14 - 17 and 5. We are back to just a tad better than luck.

1 comment:


Another great wrapup .