Wrapping Monday

Did anybody see what happened today?



After I saw the Yen become stronger against the dollar this morning I wrote a post "Forex Alert" and said - this won't last long. I was right.



I don't know about you but it looks to me like the USDYEN is almost a dead ringer for the QQQQ - still.

But the neat thing about the Q's is that they rebound from Support 4! and went all the way to Resistance 1. This was poetry in motion folks. See the tweezer bottom at Support 1? Then there's a tweezer again with a BOB a little while later. I love days when the market dips quick and then starts coming back - doesn't do my trading portfolio (swing trades) so good but for day trading it is the best.

Unfortunately I missed it - I was at the hospital taking a test - no problem - I passed - but I sure wish I had been here for the show.

Lost STD to the stop loss - added RSH, IN, and CRVL in place of WEN and STD. Added some to OI on a tweezer bottom near Support 1.

So you want to day trade with the big boys -



Two points off Support 2 and turns around and goes to Resistance 1. AAPL was about the same - MSFT went up but more slowly.

This guy started its move down - still overbought but moving in the right direction -



And that is a good thing. The up/down ratio stayed at 50% and the VIX moved closer to 10 under MA 10. The INDU ATR moved back up again today to 131.28. Not too much but every point higher means more delay on the recovery. We are still overbought and there just isn't any way out of that so I'm forecasting another down day tomorrow.

I'm calling today an up day because two out of the three major indices went up.

The coin, in celebration, calls tomorrow ... tails - down.

That makes the score Marlyn 22 - 19 and 8 and the coin is 23 - 18 and 8.

Trading Portfolio

In my trading portfolio I have 4 holdings - OI, WEN, GGB, and STD. Here are the pivot point models for each of them -

OI -



WEN -



GGB-


STD -



I see nothing in this picture that suggests that I should off load any of them from the portfolio at this time.

Wrappin' Thursday

Boring - I added WEN and OI to the trading portfolio, bulked up STD and added some more to GGB (The amount I would have played on AKS had I added it). That add was at the end of the day. Kicked KNOT out of the portfolio for a nice little loss and I still don't know why the relentless selling continues. WEN actually turned around and went up 20 cents after I bought it. OI was up all day also 20 cents over my purchase price. Given the kind of day it was that seemed to me to be a success.

We didn't even go down - we went sideways - but the INDU Average True Range declined a bit to 133.66 and that is always good. What we are looking for is a steady decline with a steady rise in prices - nothing too violent because the slower it goes up the longer it lasts. Take what you will out of that - I've taken it as far as I'm going to go.

The model portfolio is at 6.74% and the benchmark is 2.03% - the model dropped .11% and the benchmark didn't move.

GOOG was back in play today - did a lovely return to 4, bounced off its pivot point and went past R1 on a lot of nice little moves. It even bounced off midpoint high along the way - if you can chart pivot points take a look at a classic on the 15-minute charts. MSFT took the day off and AAPL gained 8 cents - still a long way to go to get to 100 and it gets longer if its going to do it 8 cents at a clip.

I wish I could tell you that tomorrow was going to be better but I just don't see it - next week however should produce some nice gains again. It's the last week in the quarter and the 12000 funds have to get spiffy so the managers can get their quarterly bonuses - vacation time is coming.

The VIX is coming back to the line - 16% under today. Another day and it will probably make it back over the 10-period moving average. This guy remains overbought but we've been here before -



The up/down ratio is finally breathing a little easier at 45% which is a serious drop from the 70% where it was yesterday. If we could just get a turnaround on the NewMoMo for a day or two we might even set up nice for the end of next week.

I have to follow my instincts and the momentum chart and call tomorrow a down day.

The coin however is calling tomorrow ... heads - up again - once the coin gets an idea in its head its hard to shake it.

We have to call today another tie neither up nor down so the score now stands at Marlyn 21 - 17 and 7 and the coin is 22 - 18 and 7.

Marlyn Wraps Wednesday

Anyone who predicted anything different than today's scenario is a moron and should go back to Fed 101 school. The only surprising thing is we actually did get the 120+ points. I told you that the market would be discounting a future rate cut and that's exactly what happened. The Fed couldn't allow the markets to continually see the down side because it is just too expensive for them - they had to pump the market from within. Couple that with the fact that this is an end of quarter for the mutual funds and you can understand everyone's hidden agenda all around. That's enough macro economics for this week - let's get back to trading.

When the market goes up 100 plus points and one of your holdings doesn't participate that's when you pull the pin and that's what happened to MPW. I'm generally bullish on KNOT so I'm keeping it for awhile more - besides I think it will go back up and get me even before I dump out so I'll keep it for another day at least. I'm still not sure who is selling but someone big is dumping out as much as they can. I wish they'd get done. Still it's volume is less than average so maybe it's not so much someone selling as no one buying.

IMCL, one I missed, just paused around 11 to 2 and then took off again. AFFX dropped like a rock for awhile and then took off at the announcement only to drop again shortly thereafter.

The trading portfolio consists of GGB, STD and KNOT at this time. I added to GGB at close. The model portfolio is at 6.85% (since Feb 28th) and the benchmark is 2.03.

Maybe tomorrow I'll have my head in the game and make some good day trades. I missed a couple of real great ones today. I did want to show you this however -


There are at least 4 entry points on this chart starting from yesterday afternoon and continuing through the Fed announcement. I missed 2 and passed on 2 others simply because I couldn't believe it. Next time I'll be a believer. The one yesterday afternoon - you'd have to already be watching IMCL at that time to pick up on that one. The three today however I should have had.

The three amigos (AAPL, GOOG and MSFT) all took advantage of the Fed rally and went up nicely - so did gold and gold miners based on the beating the dollar took this afternoon. I won't go into this to any depth because it really isn't very important but expect everything to come back to normal tomorrow even though the dollar will continue to fall. That's the whole problem with the theory - everything is a one day event even though the economy is a continuous happening. But enough - nobody knows nothing except that the market is now seriously overbought.

This guy is so overbought there is no way out but down -


And the VIX is 23% below its 10-period moving average. These do not bode well for the remainder of the week. I think we'll have a couple of calming days and next week we'll get the end of the month paint job on the mutual funds and all will be well.

The up/down ratio is at 70% which is a very high number. Last time we went over 65% we dropped 6 points the next day and three days later shed over 100. So we are not out of the woods at all my friends - watch your step.

For tomorrow I'm calling a down day.

The coin is calling for ... heads - another up day.

The score now stands at Marlyn 21 - 17 and 6 and the coin after calling today so perfectly is 22 - 18 and 6.

EDIT - Forgot - the INDU ATR went back up today (of course) and that is not a good sign either - it's at 138 even. I'm sticking to my forecast - down tomorrow.

Missing The Boat

I better get over whatever this is that is fuzzing up my head - miserable spring colds are the absolute worst - here is what I missed already today

IMCL - From the breakout filter


AFFX - Ditto


MRX - A gap-up return to 4 bounce off pivot point


Meanwhile my two touts of the morning WEN and ALTH are both making like bombs and dropping.

NSM my overnight trade also gapped up this morning but only 6 cents worth - then it dropped back to the pivot where I doubled up and now it is flying. I love BOB (in a purely heterosexual kind of way - of course).

MVL did a reverse crossover (red candle over EMA 21 - 4) and I dumped it immediately. I'm still holding MPW even though it is flat right now - GGB and STD (I still think that is the worst handle a stock could have) are both up on the day. KNOT is down again but is currently showing an RSI(2) < 2 so I'll probably add. I still think this afternoon will be up after the Fed announcement.

Tuesday Wraps

Interesting day - I expected a downer after yesterday and it boomed. Tomorrow I expect drifting down until the announcement at 2 P.M. and once that comes then all hell will break loose and the DJIA will go up at least 100 to 130 points. That's because the Fed will not raise rates and the market will react strongly to the fact that 2 months from now the Fed will cut.

Right - and if this happens just this way I will not take credit for it because I'm talking with tongue planted firmly in cheek.

My trading portfolio consists of GGB, STD, MVL, MPW, KNOT, and NSM. I dumped SOHU as promised because it didn't make it over 22.50 and stay. Middle of the day it looked like it was going to do just that off a 15-minute BOB and then it collapsed. This is a hated stock - it went all the way to 23.04 and then dropped, dropped, dropped. I sold at 22.49 on the way back down. Actually I relocated my stop there and was stopped out. What a .... but to be fair I bought it off a BOB several days ago and it was higher from there - I just don't like them when they yo-yo day after day. I still think it might take off - the problem is it just isn't in the right industry right now - BIDU and SINA are both down and I'll write about GOOG in a minute or two. But here is a tip - if you want a cheap proxy for GOOG - SOHU is that stock. It rocks with GOOG's roll. And, as always with Marlyn - I don't just throw out some Bull Snot like some of the Bloggers do and expect you to believe - I show a picture -


So if you think GOOG is on the way up but don't have a lot of 448-dollar bills lying around to buy a bunch then SOHU might be the solution. For every share of GOOG you can get almost 20 shares of SOHU. On the other hand if you think GOOG is going down you probably are just better off shorting GOOG. But be careful - that picture suggests that GOOG might be in the process of rolling over and going back up.

I doubled up on MVL at the end of the day. It had that nice end-of-day slope look to it - like it might go up tomorrow. We'll see. Of course if the market yo-yos MVL will too.

For those of you who read my two posts on Return to EMA 4 you can't help but notice that SBUX did the deed today - gapped-up, came back down, hit the 4, prints a crossover and makes a buck and a half. What it showed in the second half of the day might be a rebound and recovery move for tomorrow. Watch it early and you might get a gap up Return to EMA 4 out of it. Watch the pivot point.

NSM is one of the overnight picks grabbed up by my modified BOB set-up with ATR/RSI assist. Turns out that there actually were three selected yesterday and I was looking at the wrong filter when I said that I didn't see any. The three were GM, AVCT and CY and every single one of them went up today - AVCT the best of the lot.

The model portfolio was at 4.64 and the benchmark hit .41. All in all a good day.

GOOG behaved badly again today. it didn't go up at all. On a day when HHH (internet holders ETF) goes up to see GOOG trade flat to down means a lot - and what it means is the stock is done. There is no more money to buy GOOG and the only thing that is going to happen is it is going to drift and do nothing. Of course the minute anyone with any bulk starts selling - it is going to go down like the proverbial rock. AAPL and MSFT both joined in the festivities again today and MSFT looks like it might be going back to 30 dollars. AAPL is heading for 100 - 35 cents at a time.

INDU was up today and its ATR was down some more. That's what we like. Of course this guy is back in overbought territory again -


I hope you all understand that this doesn't necessarily mean that the market is going to turn - only about 80%. It could stay in overbought territory for several days before collapsing again. Although I really hope it goes down calmly next time.

The VIX is 15% below its 10-period moving average and the up/down ratio is 63%. I'm suggesting that the market will go down in the morning and then after the 2 P.M. announcement it will recover most of its losses. But I still think it will finish down.

The magic coin meanwhile, fresh off that good butt whipping that it gave me today says ... heads - going up some more.

The score now stands at Marlyn 21 - 16 and 6 and the coin is 21 - 18 and 6.

Wrapping Monday

I mentioned earlier that I dumped out of NFI and made a nice piece of change on it. I put KNOT in the portfolio. SOHU is becoming a giant disappointment and it has tomorrow to get over 22.5 and stay or it is gone. It is profitable now but I'm wasting time and opportunity watching it yo-yo around. GGB and STD are still doing OK and I'm keeping them for a bit more.

The three amigos AAPL, GOOG, and MSFT all caught some bids today and I'm not sure what that means going forward but it is nice to see tech join in the rally. Why the market rallied I haven't a clue. But rally it did and I'm not complaining - just worrying.

The other day I posted a new method designed to catch stocks for an overnight trade (Maybe a Solution) - it didn't put any out today but it did put out ALO from Friday afternoon and ALO jumped up with the rest of them this morning and made 35 cents in a blink of an eye. It flattened out after that but held a quarter gain all day. I didn't have it but I did want to point out one thing - in the past 4 days that filter has output 9 stocks and every single one of them made some kind of money the next day. I do want to make it clear though - this filter is designed for one thing and one thing only and that is to catch a jumper the next day. I wouldn't use it any other way and it is a very dangerous way to play.

The Dow Industrials had a booming day meanwhile the ATR keeps falling and is now at 133.41. Every little bit helps.

SBUX actually made a few more cents today. It might even pull itself out of that pit that it's in and become something. GOOG, MSFT and AAPL all went up today too - it's nice to see the hardcore tech join in a rally for a change.

We're in a little bit of a bind because NewMoMo didn't descend below -0.005 but instead turned around again and went back up. This isn't unprecedented and could result in a nice run. Of course if it spikes up again we will probably have another hard day down. We'll see.



The model portfolio is at 3.63 and the benchmark is at -0.14 so we are still beating the averages handily with our distressed good stocks list from February 28th.

The VIX is back to more than 5% below its 10-day average and that isn't very good for a sustained rally. The up/down ratio tipped the scales at 60% and I think there it will be a quiet day tomorrow and we might even see some profit taking by the dippers.

So I'm forecasting tomorrow as a down day - mostly because we simply can't have two up days in a row any more.

The coin says ... heads - up day.

The score now stands at Marlyn 21 - 15 and 6 and the coin is 20 - 18 and 6.

Return to EMA 4

STD (currently in my portfolio) did a gap up and then a return to EMA 4 this morning - that looked like this -



Or did it actually return to Resistance 2? Which looks like this -



Either one would have worked but this stock doesn't really go very far so it wouldn't have been a good day trade.

Friday Wraps

Another boring day. I dumped out of AKS because I looked at its chart and I saw that it was probably as extended as it was going to get and I already had a steel company in GGB that has room to run. Then I added back on GGB this afternoon lower than where I sold it this morning. I kept the same level in NFI and I added to SOHU and STD.

For awhile there it looked as if SOHU would actually finish the day up (in my portfolio) but it couldn't hold the gains. I think that next week we will see a rebound. I am ready.

I base that thought on this chart - a weekly of the INDU -



That long tail on this weeks finish suggests that the buyers were coming out to play and it is possible that after today the dip buyers will be back in force next week - but that's not all - a blind man couldn't help but notice the white-red-white pattern on this chart. And given that the weeks of 2/18 and 2/26 were both red (sequentially) we are owed an up week. Of course the market never "owes" it just "does" so this is just a suggestion and not a certainty. There's a reason why I don't write this stuff during market hours - I'd hate to think someone thought that I actually knew something and acted on my say so. On the daily INDU the ATR continues to decline. Today it went down to 135.96. A long way to go but at least it is moving in the right direction.

This is one powerful indicator - it's refusal to break -0.005 yesterday kind of foretold today and it is still refusing to go down below -0.005. All it would have taken is another 47 cents down. But it didn't get it.



The VIX remains neutral (between 5 and -5%) so there is no indication one way or the other there.

The model portfolio is at 2.85 and the benchmark is -1.32. The model portfolio is doing very nicely and that proves if you buy low you will make money - but we already knew that.

GOOG dropped again mostly because of that lawsuit from Viacom - of course that's just a CNBC excuse - a billion dollar lawsuit does not shave $5 per share off GOOG so that was either an overrun or not the reason. I still think that GOOG is dead money. But that's easy for me to say - I don't own any and never plan on owning any. For every share there are just too many missed opportunities. AAPL and MSFT basically broke even on the day. But this is one scary chart -



There are a couple of things going on here - first today's candle is a real good indicator of a change in direction - similar to the one on 2/28. Maybe not instantly but eventually. Second - it is once again running away from its 21-EMA. Third - it keeps bumping up against 90 and not being able to go past it. It's taken four shots at it in the past 20 trading days. Right now we have a good base if you draw a line across the top of the last two white candles and that will be the breakout spot. Can it go up from there? I don't know but right now it's poised to fall.

MSFT's chart isn't much better but it stays in the range and will probably stay there until the next time the market goes down hard at which time it will find a new, and lower range.

Bullish Jim remarked this morning that SBUX jumped but I think it has to beat the high of the last Cathedral of Dead Money before it is clear - that was 6 days ago and a buck higher from where it closed today.

I was in and out of AUY so fast this morning it made my accountant spin and this too is one ugly formation -



The problem with gold miners is that they move with gold and with the market. So you can't be sure if you are going to get fair value or not. If either the market or gold goes down the miners go down - but they only go up when the market goes up. The Japanese call this candle the "evening star" which signifies sayonara Yamana-san. Actually it needs a confirmation on Monday to become an evening star - a red candle is required - but it's two-thirds of the way. I call that candle formation on 2/26 the "cross on the hill" - it is a standalone bear sign. One other neat formation on this chart is called "three gaps down." The first gap was 2/26-2/27, followed by 3/01-3/02 and then 3/02-3/03. The "three gaps down" are usually (not always, but usually) followed by an upward movement. And last, but not least is the BOB formed from 3/02 to 3/06. If the market had been in healthier shape AUY would have been in the 16's by now.

The up/down ratio is at 35% which is a good sign and about the only hope we have for Monday. I think that we are still in the woods but we need a couple of good up days so I'm calling Monday up.

The magic coin, fresh off its most recent win calls Monday ... heads - also up.

The score now stands at Marlyn 20 - 15 and 6 and the coin is 19 - 18 and 6.

One of the the things I've been watching lately is that we seem to be in a secular down trend in the markets and that is very visible on the weekly Marlyn's Curves - I'll publish this weekend with a picture of those along with a commentary as to what I think about all of that.

Thursday Wrap

Busy day - at least for posting - I overdid it a bit but didn't really have much else to do. I kept you pretty much up to date on my trading during the day - only change to add is that I added again to GGB and put SOHU in the portfolio. It now stands at AKS, GGB, STD, SOHU and NFI. I added SOHU because it was forming a BOB and the chart looks good. STD is another one from a BOB formation and a good looking chart. And it wasn't just the BOB but also the doji that formed yesterday.

Most every stock found a pivot point early this morning and sat right there. AKS stayed on R1 all day, GGB bounced off R1, spent some time at midpoint high, retreated to the pivot and bounced there twice. I bought it twice more at these places. I picked up STD just at the R1 because it never retreated. NFI I grabbed going past R2 but it backed up and finished where I bought it - I didn't add to it - maybe tomorrow. That one makes me a little nervous since it's one of those subprime mortgage lenders. I bought SOHU off of R1. Obviously those trades are in anticipation of tomorrow and days hence.

I mentioned LQDT in yesterday's post as being in a set-up formation but it didn't go anywhere today and I think I'm taking it off my radar.

As I said this morning basically a sideways day with everyone standing around scratching their butts and wondering what to do next. That's the problem with expiry week - nothing moves except paper. You can't get much more boring than today.

The market went up but I'm not sure how. GOOG went down a buck which is noise, AAPL keeps banging up against 90 as if it is some invisible barrier and MSFT continues to slide along the 27 - 28 dollar range. AAPL and MSFT lost a little today. I don't know what that says about tech except I don't think the market is buying MSFT's Vista as an engine to stimulate demand.

The model portfolio is 2.84% and the benchmark is -.66%. The megacap portfolio is -1.51% but I'm working on that one and will reconstitute it to make it a more realistic test - there are stocks in there I wouldn't buy with Jimmy Crack Corn Pone's money.

The Q's spent all day threatening R1 but never quite getting there and of course you all remember what the USDYEN picture looked like this morning. Well that's the way it look this afternoon. Sideways and flat.

NewMoMo still hasn't signaled all clear yet and it probably will take another day.



The VIX is in neutral, but the INDU ATR had a legitimate pull back today to 139.14 on an up day. That is what we want to see - green closes with the ATR pulling down. As long as that pattern continues we will dig our way out of this hole.

The four indices and GS posted mixed in the last hour - more butt scratching. A lot of traders take the days before expiry off - just not worth the effort I guess. The up/down ratio is 58% which is still neutral but leaning towards nothing to buy.

I hate to say it but it looks like we are going to have yet another day like today tomorrow. Up but barely.

The coin disagrees - the coin says tails - bear market tomorrow.

We both got today right so - - the score now stands at Marlyn 20 - 14 and 6 and the coin is 18 - 18 and 6.