Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Wednesday Wraps

I already discussed my day trade, NFI, and that was good. I increased my AKS positon by 33%, put another 25% on my AMMD position, and introduced TRA back into the trading portfolio at the introductory level. The model portfolio is at .10 and the benchmark is -0.61. That's a lot of alpha. But to be honest one stock is carrying most of the weight and that is RYI and I'm already too afraid to buy it. It is flying and its ATR just keeps going up and up - I'm waiting for a pull back and I will probably put that into the trading portfolio too if I ever get a chance.

Another stock that I stumbled across today that I really want to have a pull back is GLBL. Have a look -

I hope it doesn't just keep going - I really want this one in the trading portfolio. You see what it did on 2/27? That's right it went up on strong volume - how do we miss plays like this?

The three brew meisters, BUD, TAP, and SAM all backed up today. Still watching the ATR increase on BUD and TAP but SAM's looks like it is starting to roll over - I think that is just a rebound effect from yesterday's major move up. I'm not going to pay attention to these any longer since I don't particularly care for most the brew nor any of the stocks.

The three pals were all over the place today - GOOG gapped up and then dropped down, AAPL opened down went up, went down, went up, went down and finished down. The good news is that its ATR looks like its rolling over down. MSFT just went down - I think it has found its trading range and is going to sit here forever. But unfortunately none of this is signaling good things for the market at large. If MSFT starts going up and GOOG goes up and stays up for a couple of days it might mean a recovery is on its way.

The INDU ATR is actually down 15 cents from yesterday which in the context of 174 bucks ain't much. I'd hold off for awhile before I started building that addition on to the house using the funds out of this recovery.

SBUX is defying the odds and going back up. But so is its ATR. I think it stalls out about another 50 cents higher (31 or so) but I could be wrong.

This indicator is still climbing and that's a good thing -

All of the indices and GS finished the last hour deep red/black and that usually means a turn around coming on the next day. The up/down ratio is 42% and the VIX is back in neutral territory. The new 20 day low/high ratio is about 2 to 1 low - that is good even though there isn't that many of each (649 - 325).

I'm forecasting tomorrow as an up day.

Oh and in case you missed it this is the Q's today on the hour charts -

And this is the Yen today on the hour charts -

That long red bar on the right - that's the hour from 3 to 4 - the most important trading hour of the day according to CNBC. And if you didn't see this chart on CNBC it's probably because they are clueless.

The magic coin says that tomorrow will be ... heads - also calling for an up day.

The score now stands at Marlyn 18 - 15 and 5 and the coin is 16 - 17 and 5 -- what a pair.


JOSEPH said...

Toying with different indicators, it appears that RSI(2) gives an early signal and Williams%(3) confirms the entry.

I've tried it and it seems to hold some promise.

JOSEPH said...

TAP & BUD turning over on ATR5

Marlyn Trades said...

Joseph - RSI and Williams are about the same thing. I've tested the two together and can't seem to find a sweet enough solution to publish. The baseline would be better than a 69% win rate and 180% ROI over the period 10/07/2006 - 02/07/2007 for stocks trading between 15 and 35 with at least 500000 shares average daily volume. If you can beat that please let me know using an RSI/Williams combination outputting at least one selection a day.

And yes you can find an ATR length that will get you a roll over - the important thing is how does 5 test against 10. In other words - if 5 is more consistent than 10 then we should use 5 but if 10 is more consistent then we should stick with 10.

Now I haven't tested all of the lengths - I just don't have time - but I will run a variety of tests with a variety of lengths of the ATR because I'm interested in that solution.

Thank you for your comment. I look forward to any filter suggestions you care to make.

JOSEPH said...

The reason I chose ATR5 is

1)due to the volatility I feel more comfortable trading short-term

2)Due to the fact you are using a very short RSI I believe it nmakes more sense to keep everything in a state of conformity.

3) visually testing the ATR10 I don't see any benefit in going out further than 5 days. I tried it with 20 days and then I decided for my purposes ATR5 would suffice

JOSEPH said...

Here I am again to give you an example of how I use it, I will take AZOtoday on a 1/2 hour chart.
entry ystdy 12:30 122.31 I wasn't sure the bar before so I waited and I had confirmation from the RSI2.

RSI(2) sell signal 10:30 124.20 but although extended XAvgC4 still has not crossed below the XAvgO and the stock closed @ 125.67


Wrap them up.