Thursday, March 01, 2007

Thursday Wraps

What a mean, miserable day. The market players couldn't make up their minds whether they wanted it up or down. This is standard procedure after the beating Tuesday - every body is playing scared. As a result stocks are round tripping and we spend all day long bumping against the pivot point on the Q's -

Five times in six hours it hit the pivot (black line on the chart) - each time to rebound strongly. But as you can see yesterday was the same thing - inability to move through the pivot point. That suggests a difficult day for today.

I bought PAAS this morning and watched it go up and then it round tripped on me and I sold it off for a small loss this afternoon. That was the very first and very last time that I will buy a silver mining stock - I've always considered them to be a waste and I think this one is the biggest waste of all.

I bought TRA this afternoon and GRA and I may scale into DLX and RYI tomorrow. All I will do now is add to the portfolio on dips and let it run for awhile. Tomorrow I think I'll go back to day trading. TIE pretty much round tripped on the day too and if it doesn't get some steam tomorrow I'm going to dump it. I'd rather put the money into winners like AKS or RIO. XING came all the way back to where I bought it but I'm going to hold on to this one for awhile but I won't add to it. It has to prove itself and it couldn't even get to the pivot point today.

The model portfolio is now returning 1.23% and the SPY is returning 1.01% since inception.

The three guys (MSFT, GOOG, and AAPL) went their separate ways today. AAPL did real well, up 2.45, MSFT recovered from being down early and GOOG stayed down. I'll reiterate my message from the past couple of days in various posts - AAPL is going up, MSFT is range bound and will be forever, and GOOG is done. It had huge volume today and went nowhere.

The small caps are back - IWM made it into the green today.

That isn't unexpected the small caps have been taking the brunt of the beat-down because they have been so far ahead of everything else. But once again the pivot point was the line of demarcation. We need a break over the pivot point tomorrow and then we'll see what happens next.

The INDU ATR is above 144 which is always a good sign. I use the ATR as a proxy for volatility. When it is below 80 for the INDU the Dow 30 goes down and when it is above 120 the DOW 30 goes up. Not immediately but within days.

This indicator, NewMoMo is behaving normally - it is now officially really far down -

Any upward movement in the market tomorrow will spin this around on a dime and give 9 cents change.

The up/down ratio retreated to 33% which is violently oversold and the VIX remains more than 10% over its 10-period moving average. It must go back.

I'm calling tomorrow up. Although to be honest I prefer days like today for day trading.

The magic coin meanwhile, fresh off its success in calling today's market, calls tomorrow ... heads - bull market.

The score is now Marlyn 16 - 13 and 5 and the coin is 14 - 15 and 5.