Tuesday, March 06, 2007

BUD or TAP ?

Beer is beer - not. I don't know what the plan is - 2 or 3 days, a couple of months or a long time. Here's three to look at and we'll use 6 month weekly charts.

First BUD -

Not a blow-off bottom but nice. This stock topped on 2/15 - I don't know why. It is forming a rounding top and I'd wait until its ATR rolls over on the weekly chart(familiar refrain) and it breaks at least 51 before I would consider it.

Here's another - TAP - the home of Coors Light - and there are some people who actually think that is beer.

This has been the premium beverage stock for a long time now. The meltdown didn't really give a good entry point because it is just too strong. I'd wait for a break of 85.5 with a declining ATR and see how far it could go. Not for day trading - this is a long term relationship. Not for drinking either.

Finally my favorite domestic beer but one which they charge premium prices for - SAM -

Of all of the contenders this one had the absolute best recovery today (6.74%) almost twice as much as the other two and that really doesn't make sense. It has been in a rounding top for many weeks now and the past couple of months it has seen the slow drip, drip, drip of a dying stock. I think it was going to trade the 34.4 - 35.2 range all the way to March 15th when it announces earnings and then break from there but which way I've no idea. SAM has come out with a whole slew of drinkable beers - the problem is it isn't a teenie's brew like Bud or a chick's swill like Coors Light so there really isn't any market for it. I'd stay away unless it started climbing hard into earnings. That might mean that someone knows something even though we know they don't. I still can't figure out a 6.74% recovery today - There were only about 130 stocks that closed above 6% out of about 7500 so it's in rare air.

I know this wasn't very helpful for anyone who might have wanted to play some BUD but as always I call them like I see them - I might be right, I might be wrong - it's your money and your play.


Anonymous said...




Nice stuff again.