Monday, January 08, 2007

Wrapping Monday

I wanted to do some of this as a midday report but Blogger wouldn't allow me to upload a figure that I am using later and so I'll do it as the normal wrap.

Maybe tomorrow we'll be able to do a "midday report". Maybe tomorrow Blogger will sprout wings and fly. Shouldn't complain - you gets what you pays for.

Picked up RAD as a day-trade - gapped up and came back to the EMA 4 and that's when I grabbed it up. Same with BSX. Sold off RAD mid-afternoon as it seemed to be done. Decided to hold BSX (convert to a swing) as it looks pretty strong. There were a number of these types of set-ups today - these were just the two I took.

Speaking of the "gap up fall back" set-up, one of Broker-A's favorites, MVIS, did that this morning. MVIS looks like it is finally catching on. They are developing a heads-up display for automobiles - just what we need - another driver distraction. Actually the tech market is so barren of new ideas that any idea sounds great. I mean let's face it how many different ways can you say "telephone and takes pictures" and make it sound new and exciting - twice? So MVIS is being rewarded for innovation if nothing else.

SYMC is up a bit. This one is driving me nuts. I'd be better off day-trading it than holding it as a swing. I'll hang in there one more cycle (4 days) and if it doesn't break out of this range (> 21.80) then I'm out of it. We'll see on Friday. If I do sell it will be your signal to load up. I dumped nearly all of my DHI this morning - maybe housing isn't ready to go up. I'll keep an eye on it and if it turns I'll get my losses back - they weren't too severe but I hate losses.

Picked up some CRVL on a reversal day-trade this afternoon. I sold at COB for a buck and change. I keep this one on my screens all the time - it is a thinly traded stock with a massive spread but I usually buy it as a limit trade by putting my bid square in the center of the bid-ask. Somebody hits it almost immediately. There are a lot of scalpers in this stock. Selling is the same process - put it out between the bid and the ask and some fish will rise to the bait. Trading is like fishing - a lot of patience and knowing where to drop your line goes a long way.

One of my fellow Bloggers - Bullish Jim - bailed on CTXS last week and look at it today - up a buck and change and look out above. Only wish I had jumped on it at open this morning (just kidding Jim). Actually I'm not, Jim. CTXS put out a "buy me" crossing signal this morning and I saw it but got distracted and by the time I got back half the move was made. That "buy me" crossing signal looks like this.



You will see this on just about every time period including daily, weekly and monthly. I use three EMA - 4, 8 and 21 and a "crossing" signal is when the open of the first 15-minute candle is below the EMA 21 and the close is above the EMA 4. When you get a confirmation (as shown in the figure) the next move is up - usually. Sometimes they fool us and go down but that is what risk management is all about. I normally set a stop just below the EMA 21 and that is generally sufficient. Readers of this Blog know that I also normally use "mental" stops. (Charts courtesy of Prophet.net - a good company).

This signal, by the way, works for shorts too (red candle crossing down) and works in many different markets. I have seen it work after the open (today NVEC for example) but keep in mind the rules are fairly strict - you must have the crossing and the confirmation before taking the trade.

I keep an eye out for this signal on my various watch lists that I have set up 24 to a page and start going through 15 minutes after the open. If I see the indicator I copy the stock to another watch list for the next 15 minute scan.

As for tomorrow - the up/down ratio is back to 52% (erroneously reported earlier as 60%) and the new 20 day high/low ratio is at 35% which is mixed. The VIX is still more than 5% greater than its 10 day moving average which, while not a hard and fast indicator, does suggest a certain amount of oversoldishness. The four indices that we track (via their ETFs) all finished the last hour in the red and GS finished with a doji. That last is understandable given the 4+ point gain it had today - poor guy had to be plumb tuckered out. Or as we New Yorkers say - "Dat guy is f'in tired." Put all of this together and it spells - another up day tomorrow. And that's my prediction.

The magic coin says - tails - bear again.

OK the score so far is Marlyn - 1 and 0 --- Coin 0 and 1 - the race has begun.

2 comments:

Bullish Jim said...

Argh! CTXS got the best of me.

That's a great chart you posted on CTXS by the way. Very enlightening...

I see you like the current action in NVEC. I'm still long in that one but way underwater. I'd be curious what you think the chart is saying as to how high it could go in the near term. At this point I just want to mitigate my losses the best I can at this point.

QUALITY STOCKS UNDER 5 DOLLARS said...

Wrap it up alright.