Sunday, January 14, 2007

Catch a Falling Knife

Bullish Jim brought this stock up on his Blog and we've had a small discussion of it but I just wanted to show the world what a classic melt-down looks like. You seldom get this kind of relentless action from so high for so far for so long.

I give you VOL - note that it is a "red bar crossover". I've been showing you a lot of "white bar crossovers" lately and this one is gorgeous in the opposite direciton (I had mentioned that the red bar crossover was a good short signal). Then after a couple of drops note how it retreats to the 8 EMA.

Turn this stock over and it is the kind I write about frequently on the long side. What a beauty. A train wreck in slow motion.

Now - something to notice - the last 15-minutes was not a short covering rally but some really hard selling persisted and there was absolutely no one ready to catch this falling knife. This stock is splitting 3 for 2 on Tuesday (actually Monday) and it is possible that it will go up off that split. Maybe not but I'm keeping it on a watch list. I'll revisit this in Tuesday evening's wrap regardless of the outcome.


Bullish Jim said...

Great lesson, Marlyn.

As a recent convert to using stop loss orders (as any sane person should), I have to ask: has there ever been a better illustration than VOL of why you should keep a tight stop loss order in if you're holding a really volatile stock? All this damage was done intra-day!


To catch a knife falling is the hardest thing to do.