Wrapping Turdsday

Wow! Was I ever wrong! And am I ever happy! What? Oh yeah, man! (Emeril doesn't have that phrase copywrit - at least not yet). (By the way his Garlic Lovers Spaghetti sauce is out of this world wowee!). 'nuff about that - back to the market.

As noted in an earlier post today AAPL led the market lower because of their silly 4 penny miss. Now I was thinking - what if we all got together - all the AAPL shareholders (I am not) and gave them 4 cents out of our own pockets - do you think that would help? It's a thought.

In a later post I asked the musical question - whither the Q's next week and if you all answered up, up, and away - you might be right. In the past 6 months there has only been one down week followed by a down week - the rest have been up weeks and today was a super blow-off if I've ever seen one. A lot of crap stocks were sold today along with AAPL.

Day three of the GOOG short squeeze vigil passed without incident and I'm beginning to receive dispatches from the front - most of them saying things like - what the hell and are you kidding and who is the Jimmy Crack Corn Pone anyway? To which I can only reply - Jimmy said it - I reported it - some people believed it - and I don't care. Or in the words of my dear old Ma - Do Dah Do Dah Day.

I dumped Chiquita Banana today based on the fact that it didn't seem to want to go anywhere but held RX because I'm stupid. Also held GLW and SYMC and CRVL and added to the pain with S (Sprint). Why Sprint? Simple I read my Notable Calls this morning and Sprint is troughing (much like MOT I might add) and they are probably going to go up once all of this shake-out is over.

I might take a position in MOT tomorrow. And I heard about this little guy the other day, GTXI, that has something or other coming out of trials and the news is looking good. I might add a small bite of that to the plate as well.

Tomorrow is options expiry day and contrary to popular belief it is usually a pretty calm day. I expect a moderate to mild rally tomorrow.

And that is based on the up/down ratio printing 30% and the new 20 day high/low ratio printing 38% (they both went the same way for a change) and the fact that the VIX has climbed back up within the 5% range and the fact that every major index printed red in the final hour and GS, the proxy for the stock market of the 22nd century, printed a doji. I would like to see it go down again but trust me - everybody is in a hole and there is only one way out - up.

The magic coin says ... tails - bear market - we'll see coin, we'll see.

Marlyn is now 3 - 4 and 1 and the coin is 3 - 4 and 1. At least we disagree about tomorrow.

Wednesday Wrap

Strange day - a little up - a little down and once again no clear direction in a directionless swamp. AAPL just came out with record earnings and that probably means the market will explode tomorrow and I can't wait. I bought a bunch of crap today and wound up holding it overnight. Among the many mistakes - RX, CQB (Chiquita Banana), CRVL, and SYMC. Still holding GLW but regretting every minute of it. Especially since it went past my buy point and I could have gotten out with a small profit this afternoon. I'm going to regret that too.

Wait did anyone hear that? That rocket blast? That was DHI - freed from the encumbrances of my owning shares it took off today with the rest of the homies. Up 2.35% on a relatively down day in the old marketplace. And Bullish Jim thinks that he sells too soon. Fahgedaboudid!

Day two of the GOOG short squeeze watch dawned bright and crisp and as the nation waited for that event with baited breath - it didn't happen. Why oh why Jimmy - tell me why...I mortgaged the homestead - I sold off the hogs including Ma's prize winning Jersey Petunia and put it all on the line at 513 - and now its selling at 497 and the broker called and he wants the cows, horses, and chickens toooooo.

Nobody knows nothing - don't ever forget it and if you wake up every morning and look in the mirror and say that and add "including me" to the end of it you will probably stay out of trouble. I didn't this morning - obviously.

MDRX that I bought yesterday for a couple of days hit a very tight stop loss this morning (my error - I told you the range was a buck and change but did I listen - oh hell no) and, of course, rebound one tick too late. Anyway I replaced it with RX and that one just kind of meandered sideways/down (swon which is the opposite of swup) all day. CQB is a buy because of the recent freeze out in CA and it was going up and then hit an imaginary ceiling and did a mime impression all morning beating against it and then fell away. Both these two are up or out tomorrow.

SYMC I grabbed up at the bottom and I actually made a buck or two on it today. If it turns tomorrow it too is gone - I should have sold at close today but I was busy with some other things - if it continues up tomorrow I'll double up. I know I'm going ot regret that. CRVL is also a purchase against a brighter day (tomorrow).

Tomorrow should be better - AAPL's earnings will make the pain go away and everything will go up and the world will be a better place. Right.

The up/down ratio actually increased today to 44% but the new 20 day high/low ratio went down to 60%. That's what I like about two disparate ratings that sound alike but are totally different. The only time they mean anything is when they both go in the same direction. Otherwise it is a split decision. The 4 majors and GS were all over the place at the end - some up - some down. More split decision - and to add to the confusion the VIX actually went down in a down market - talk about not knowing which way the wind is blowing. There's a reason for that but you'll have to go ask Adam as I haven't a clue. I think all of these holidays and extra days off and the rest of that has gotten the markets so confused they don't know which end is up. But I'm still thinking about years past and the fact that right around here you normally get a bump. Of course earnings have been pretty good in years past.

I think tomorrow will be another weak day but will close up - I'm calling tomorrow for the bulls.

The magic coin says ... heads - bull market coming.

OK it was a bear market today and I called for an up market that makes me 3 - 3 and 1 and the coin is 3 - 3 and 1. What a race - a train wreck in slow motion.

Friday's Wrap

As noted earlier - after a month of holding for a better day I sold SYMC for an 18 cent loss - could have sold it yesterday for a half buck profit but nooooo had to hold it. Who would have suspected that good news such as an open portal to sell your goods to a couple of billion Chinese would be seen as such a bad thing on Wall Street. There is absolutely no rationality in this market.

I completed the first round buy on Glass (GLW) and also added to my DHI holdings. Not quite back to where I was but I will probably get there next week if they keep edging up.

Going to keep this simple today - the up/down ratio dropped back a bit to 56% but the new 20 day high/low ratio went ahead to 79%. That plus the fact that the VIX is 12% less than its 10 day moving average suggests a down day coming on Tuesday. Add to all of that the fact that the Q's, DIA, SPY, IWM and GS all put in strong white candles in the final hour and we have to say Tuesday is definitely a down day.

The magic coin says tails - also a down day.

Today makes Marlyn 3 and 2 and coin 2 and 3. We are not doing very well this year so far.

Later this weekend I'll show you the difference between a scalper special and solid investment and how to tell when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em. That's if Blogger ever allows charts to be uploaded.

Wrapping Thursday

Fortunately I wasn't around much of today having had a little personal business to get out of the way. It seemed that for all the action in the indices the only thing that moved was - I really don't have to tell you this do I? - Homebuilders! DHI made back 54 cents and I made back most of my losses. Meanwhile SYMC managed to round trip a 40 cent profit and turned in a 13 cent loss - on a day when the COMPQ was up 25 points. One more day and I'll be done with that piece of crap. Not that I don't have a profit - I do - but I think the money will be better used somewhere else.

For example - I bought some Glass (GLW) on the open based on the dummy spot on the weekly charts from two weeks ago followed by a doji last week. All of that looks like a bottom. It went up today and given its recent past this generally this means a smack down tomorrow but GLW will be my new swing trade. Today it is printing a crossing formation on the daily charts. If GLW confirms tomorrow I'll finish the buy for this round. I never got past round one on SYMC because it never went anywhere. Should rename that stock the old yo-yo. To put things in perspective I made more today in a half position of Glass than I've made in a month in SYMC.

Since I was out I didn't do any mo-mo day trading today. Just as well none of the usual suspects did much of anything. CRVL limped around for a bit and round tripped 60 cents which is nothing for that stock - it usually round trips a a buck and a half every hour or so.

GS looks like it was shot out of a cannon and then just sat in space all day. Most of the activity in the market seemed to be over by 11 A.M. My darling from yesterday CTXS gained a half a rock today. Had I been around I probably would have played it again off a "gap up - pull back" play.

Going to be out early tomorrow so I don't think I'll make any plays at all unless I fill GLW.

Which is all well and good because I think the market will take a rest tomorrow - the up/down ratio is 60% which is not too terribly bad but the new 20 day high/low ratio is 70%. That, coupled with the VIX being more than 5% below its 10 day moving average, suggests a down day coming. We have a split ending in our four majors with two red candles and two white candles in the final hour and GS, that old tie-breaker, landed on its edge - a doji (still tired).

My prediction - down tomorrow and the magic coin says ... tails - it agrees. So once again we will both be right or both be wrong.

So far - Marlyn 3 and 1 and the coin is 2 and 2.

Wrapping Monday

I wanted to do some of this as a midday report but Blogger wouldn't allow me to upload a figure that I am using later and so I'll do it as the normal wrap.

Maybe tomorrow we'll be able to do a "midday report". Maybe tomorrow Blogger will sprout wings and fly. Shouldn't complain - you gets what you pays for.

Picked up RAD as a day-trade - gapped up and came back to the EMA 4 and that's when I grabbed it up. Same with BSX. Sold off RAD mid-afternoon as it seemed to be done. Decided to hold BSX (convert to a swing) as it looks pretty strong. There were a number of these types of set-ups today - these were just the two I took.

Speaking of the "gap up fall back" set-up, one of Broker-A's favorites, MVIS, did that this morning. MVIS looks like it is finally catching on. They are developing a heads-up display for automobiles - just what we need - another driver distraction. Actually the tech market is so barren of new ideas that any idea sounds great. I mean let's face it how many different ways can you say "telephone and takes pictures" and make it sound new and exciting - twice? So MVIS is being rewarded for innovation if nothing else.

SYMC is up a bit. This one is driving me nuts. I'd be better off day-trading it than holding it as a swing. I'll hang in there one more cycle (4 days) and if it doesn't break out of this range (> 21.80) then I'm out of it. We'll see on Friday. If I do sell it will be your signal to load up. I dumped nearly all of my DHI this morning - maybe housing isn't ready to go up. I'll keep an eye on it and if it turns I'll get my losses back - they weren't too severe but I hate losses.

Picked up some CRVL on a reversal day-trade this afternoon. I sold at COB for a buck and change. I keep this one on my screens all the time - it is a thinly traded stock with a massive spread but I usually buy it as a limit trade by putting my bid square in the center of the bid-ask. Somebody hits it almost immediately. There are a lot of scalpers in this stock. Selling is the same process - put it out between the bid and the ask and some fish will rise to the bait. Trading is like fishing - a lot of patience and knowing where to drop your line goes a long way.

One of my fellow Bloggers - Bullish Jim - bailed on CTXS last week and look at it today - up a buck and change and look out above. Only wish I had jumped on it at open this morning (just kidding Jim). Actually I'm not, Jim. CTXS put out a "buy me" crossing signal this morning and I saw it but got distracted and by the time I got back half the move was made. That "buy me" crossing signal looks like this.



You will see this on just about every time period including daily, weekly and monthly. I use three EMA - 4, 8 and 21 and a "crossing" signal is when the open of the first 15-minute candle is below the EMA 21 and the close is above the EMA 4. When you get a confirmation (as shown in the figure) the next move is up - usually. Sometimes they fool us and go down but that is what risk management is all about. I normally set a stop just below the EMA 21 and that is generally sufficient. Readers of this Blog know that I also normally use "mental" stops. (Charts courtesy of Prophet.net - a good company).

This signal, by the way, works for shorts too (red candle crossing down) and works in many different markets. I have seen it work after the open (today NVEC for example) but keep in mind the rules are fairly strict - you must have the crossing and the confirmation before taking the trade.

I keep an eye out for this signal on my various watch lists that I have set up 24 to a page and start going through 15 minutes after the open. If I see the indicator I copy the stock to another watch list for the next 15 minute scan.

As for tomorrow - the up/down ratio is back to 52% (erroneously reported earlier as 60%) and the new 20 day high/low ratio is at 35% which is mixed. The VIX is still more than 5% greater than its 10 day moving average which, while not a hard and fast indicator, does suggest a certain amount of oversoldishness. The four indices that we track (via their ETFs) all finished the last hour in the red and GS finished with a doji. That last is understandable given the 4+ point gain it had today - poor guy had to be plumb tuckered out. Or as we New Yorkers say - "Dat guy is f'in tired." Put all of this together and it spells - another up day tomorrow. And that's my prediction.

The magic coin says - tails - bear again.

OK the score so far is Marlyn - 1 and 0 --- Coin 0 and 1 - the race has begun.

Wrapping the First Week

I was listening to Bloomberg radio in the car yesterday and the guy said - with all seriousness - that the Dow was down about a half a percent for the year. And you wonder why I don't pay any attention to those bozo's.

Both AES and BLG crapped out and hit the stop loss. Oh well - they were speculative buys and I was trying a new approach. Obviously I need to refine my process a bit. I'm still holding SYMC and DHI and as one goes up the other goes down which is OK for now - but I expect DHI to turn around sooner rather than later.

The good news is that the up/down ratio is at 25% which is about as low as it gets. The new 20 day high/low ratio is at 14% and looking back that seems to be about as low as it ever got. This means that there is something to buy on Monday.

The three majors, DIA, SPY, and the Q's finished mixed in their last hour as did IWM and GS. But if you have a minute this weekend take a look at the 60-minute charts for DIA, SPY, QQQQ, and IWM for Thursday. Look at the last hour and you will see what a blow-off top on the indices looks like.

The VIX is in the yellow zone (greater than 5% over its 10-day less than 10%) so there is some weakness indicated (or maybe "suggested" is a better word). I think that Monday brings a bit of an up day across the board.

The Magic Coin disagrees and says it will be a bear market. Remember - I'm going to keep track of my predictions vs the coin's and we'll see who is better in a couple of months.

And even though you didn't ask - mom's in great shape for 87 years old - still lives in her own house and drives her own car. Sees the doctor every now and again for the heart problems but if I'm in half as good a shape when I get to 87 I'll be very pleased (and it will be an improvement). My brother is close at hand and takes her on longer trips but otherwise she gets around pretty good.

Wrapping Friday

As expected a down day - the problem being there isn't anybody around who really cares enough to buy anything. Given the extra day off next week (Tuesday) nearly everyone who is anyone took off at noon today to prepare for the 4-day mourning session honoring our only unelected President. I know I'm going to pull out my old WIN button and wear it proudly for the next 4 days. (WIN = Whip Inflation Now - Gerald Ford's answer to some of the most miserable run-away stagflation ever to hit the country).

I end the year holding SYMC even though it backed up today, DHI, and I added a very small position in GM this morning. I will be holding them through next week in anticipation of the coming boom in the stock market. Actually I'm taking all of next week off. Nothing special just a short trip I've had planned for awhile.

For a recap - the up/down ratio is now at 38% and the new 20 day high/low ratio is 42% and the VIX is 7% over its 10 day moving average. These things mean that next week will be a good one - at least on Wednesday. I'd really like for the market to fall back for the next two weeks and then, when there is lots and lots of things to buy, take off from there.

With the exception of the SPY everybody else (DIA, QQQQ, IWM, GS) finished with a red candle in the last hour - which is good. That means that there was even more capitulation following through from yesterday.

I'll be back later this weekend with a fearless prediction for the next year - it doesn't matter whether I'm right or wrong - it's just something you can look at and compare with all the other fearless no nothings out there.

The magic coin having nailed today finishes the year 42 - 31 and if you don't know how much better the coin is than Cramer you just aren't paying attention. For the First Trading Day of the New Year the coin says --- Heads - bull market -

And that's a wrap.

Wrapping Friday

OK - I got my wish - a pretty good draw down for the week - that will set-up next week just fine and we can continue with the bull run. I'm still holding SYMC and DHI with no changes.

The up/down ratio is at 36%, the new 20 day lows are outpacing the new 20 day highs almost 2 to 1 and the VIX is actually 6% over its 10 day moving average and moving into oversold territory. All four majors and GS finished with strong red candles in the last hour and as you know - that is a good sign because it calls for a contrarian position. All in all Tuesday may pay for Christmas for those of us who are positioned to take advantage of it.

Magic coin missed today so he's 39 - 30. For Tuesday he says --- heads - bull market - I'm going along with this one.

Wrapping Wednesday

Great day! I didn't do much trading - just watched a bit, wrote some new posts and, what else, went shopping. I think we are almost done but I never factor "done" into this calculous because "done" implies "finished" and my bride never really is. I'll be scurrying around on Christmas eve trying to find one more wingbootentooter for Aunt Millie or some such play pretty as that. No I don't know what any of that means I'm just tired. But the stores were a whole lot more crowded today than they've been in awhile so maybe everyone final got the memo - 3 days left.

Still holding SYMC and doubled up on DHI. I do that on the second day of a trade sometimes if I expect the trade to go up - which I do.

The up/down ratio sits at .36 which is in oversold territory, the new 20 day highs peeled off 100 to 381 and new 20 day lows went up to 604. Another great sign because that means that there is actually something out there to buy. The final hour saw a mixed batch with DIA, SPY and IWM finishing with white candles while the Q's and GS finished red. Doesn't matter - volume tomorrow should be in the single digits. The VIX has withdrawn to the neutral zone and that means no volatility for the options guys or the day traders either.

I'm looking forward to a quiet day tomorrow regardless of any news. I just saw that RIMM is up 6 bucks and change after hours on its great profits last quarter so that might serve as a bit of a catalyst for the tech area tomorrow - we'll see.

Magic coin is now 39-29 having called today correctly so we'll give him another chance to make a fool of himself and calls for tomorrow ... heads - bull market. I suppose it's possible - two down days in a row...

Wrapping Crappy Wednesday

Man I’m getting sick of these boomerang days. Up we go, down we go – around we go – nobody knows where we want to go. I want the market to go down and go down hard. I want that to happen in the next 10 days. That will give us a good set-up for the next year. It won’t of course – don’t know if you’ve noticed or not but there just isn’t any volume in this market. All of the indices ETFs that we follow are at half speed if that.

I’m still holding SYMC although I wish I had sold this morning early and I picked up some DHI and was probably a day or two too early on that one. Dumped out of WFC – a 9-cent gain off a three-day hold. Could have had 9-cents after the first three minutes. Sometimes you just waste time although a profit is a profit. Sometimes they are so boring you just have to kick them out of the portfolio. WFC fit that profile to a T.

I took a day trade in CRVL. That chart's below – I took it on the fifth bar where it "kissed the 8" and dumped out right at 48 – that was my target and I had to go shopping again. Good thing – looks like everyone else had to go shopping too. MAMA would have been a great trade again today – as I mentioned in my post on cheap stocks – MAMA and MVIS both were showing some support on the monthly charts. MVIS hasn’t been doing much but MAMA has been running pretty well.



I’m getting sick of shopping. I read a column by Barry Ritholtz this morning on Seeking Alpha containing anecdotal evidence that the season is lacking in the retail sector and I’ve got to tell you – I agree. I’ve been out almost every day in December and in years past where I would have had problems with parking – no sweat this year. Also we have had some lines but nothing too difficult and an awful lot of stores just don't have anybody in them. Not the big boxes of course but a lot of the specialty shops. I don’t know what that means for certain but I think it bodes ill for the retail reports in January. That will mean a one-day market decline at best and then ho-hum up we go again. Adam on the Daily Options Report said it best – he called it “relentlessly plodding upturn.” That pretty much nails it.

I really thought we’d have a good day today – at least go up and stay up but there are a lot of profits from the “relentless upturn” and somebody is taking them. Possibly the funds – setting the end of year markers – the retail trade is too conditioned to wait for January to take profits and there are hardly any losses to take this year.

For tomorrow the up/down ratio went up to 48%, the new 20-day highs gained ground and the new 20-day lows lost ground. Everybody went red in the last hour except IWM. The small caps had a great day. The VIX slid back inside of 5% below its 10-day moving average.

This all sums up to a great big – I don’t know. I’m going to sit on my positions through the holiday and see where we go next week. I'll watch CRVL and MAMA and a couple of others to see if I can get a day trade but other than that I'm pretty set where I am.

The magician is now at 38 – 29 having called today correctly – I should have listened and not played DHI – oh well sometimes you have to believe your own stories. I still think homies are over-sold and I'll get 10 - 15% out of DHI yet. I'm looking for a about a buck-60 with no real downside risk. For tomorrow – magic says --- tails – more bear. Could be.

Tuesday Wraps

I’m still holding SYMC and WFC and both actually went up today. I managed to salvage most of my losses on ORCL this morning – I expected a small downside – not that steep drop but, as always with a mature company, the first drop is an overshoot and if you jump on board and double or triple up you can usually get out without losing your shirt – and that’s what I did. I wouldn’t do that for some no-name but I seldom play immature companies just for that reason – I really want to know how the trading community reacts to bad news or, as in this case, good news.

I jumped out on the rebound at .25 and only lost a 100 bucks in all. Considering I was a grand down at the start – not bad. I then took a solemn vow – I will never play ORCL again – this is the second time that it was traded out from under me for no good reason. It is now on my white board under the word “Never” along with 20 or 30 others that I will not play - mostly because they are empty pieces of junk that misbehave.

(start sermon)
Warning! Warning! Warning! If you try this on your next dump job and you lose don't blame me - it is not an approved method of trading. Never, never, never double up a losing position - Never! (end sermon)

In case you think I have forgotten my day trading skills I took a small position in MAMA off a new method that I have been testing. It seems to work but I’m going to tell you that the risk factor is high and you need to move quickly. I have found this to be an effective play in every time frame from 4 minutes through 15. Look at the chart below.



You can see what the new set-up is – if the first time increment encompasses all three of the EMA’s that I use then I buy it on the next open. I keep my mental stop at the EMA 21. Now I don’t know if this will work with other moving averages because I’m happy with it working with the three I use all the time. Interestingly, MAMA also had a classic set-up a bit later in the morning – but I was already in the trade.

If you don’t think this occurs very often – take a look here at WFC – also today.



And here is a counter-gap trade I wish I could have taken but I was back on the shopping detail this afternoon. I give you HANS.



Finally – I thought the markets had a good chance to go up today because the first hour PC ratio opened above yesterday’s first hour open and closed below yesterday’s first hour close. That was despite the fact that the FTSI 100 was down all day. As I mentioned yesterday - these are rules of thumb and not hard and fast "must be's".

Of course a lot of stocks did go up today – the up/down ratio is back at 45% but the new 20 day lows are still 200 more than the new 20 day highs and that is a good thing. The VIX is back at 5% below its 10 day moving average but the good news is that every major index we follow and GS finished the last hour with a strong red candle – there was a ton of selling going on. All of this leads me to believe that we will probably go up tomorrow. But as you know a good trader doesn’t care about the direction of the market because a good trader can make money regardless.

I’m giving Mr. Magic a pass for today since the market finished mixed which leaves him at 37 – 29. For tomorrow --- tails – bear in the air - - oh, who believes in magic anyway?

Friday - Wrap It Up

A good week all things considered. I didn't get the hard pullback I was looking for but as you will see from Marlyn's Curve later this weekend there are some momentum changes taking place which, unlike the weather here in the mid-Atlantic, are seasonal.

I decided to keep holding SYMC - mostly because there wasn't much else going on. (Truth, I'm doing my normal Christmas duties and running the wife all over here and gone shopping) (when I'm not playing golf that is).

I also added a half position on Western Union (WU) off the apparent blow-off bottom on Thursday (2-hour charts) - you know their motto - "Bailing out dead-beats for a 100 years." Oh go ahead and laugh - we've all used it for that purpose. Anyway it's a relatively new stock and I have a $23.95 target on it or a stop at 22.60 or there abouts.

For Monday - the up/down ratio is at .458, the new 20 day highs are at 688 and the new lows are at 357. This combination by itself says "more of the same" but let's see what else is going on in the prediction space.

The VIX has pulled back inside -10% but still remains lower than -5% so we could have a down day or two coming in the next week. Then again maybe just a weak sideways up which can also raise the VIX (it's sort of like raising the Titanic any more).

The best indicator (at least to me) is the fact that DIA, SPY, QQQQ, IWM and the proxy for the stock market of the 22nd century - Goldman Sachs (GS) all printed red spinners or red doji in the last hour. Last time this happened the market went up strong the next couple of days. I'm going out on a limb here and say that we have one more day of this weak rally then we go dormant until after Christmas. I think that is the fourth time I've said that but - eventually it will be Christmas and I'll stop saying it.

As always I don't "know" I just "guess" just like that guy from TV you follow so slavishly. - "Good jumpin' jiminy Sarah-Mae - he's filthy rich - he just hasta know what he's doin'!" - Oh yeah lemme buy summa dat. (sarcasm off)

But now for someone who does know - someone, who but for a few measly cents yesterday and a new Dow record could have been something special, coulda been a contenda - but instead is 37 - 28 having blown the call (and we all know how that feels too - don't we sports fans?) for Monday says .... heads - going to be a bull market.

We'll see - Later this weekend, if I can get off the shopping detail long enough, a post on wither the majors using Marlyn's curve; a reprise of my Cheap Stocks Stay Cheap rap - and no, Annie-Mae, I'm not going to say I'm sorry; and, maybe a couple of other posts depending how creative I'm feeling. I've been playing around with the 4 day swing trade method I use and I want to share some tests I've done with you.

Till then - tah.

Thursday Wraps

Well I got that one wrong - I really don't know why a couple of thousand fewer people claiming unemployment benefits should have such an impact on the market but it seems to have done the trick. The DIA and the SPY had great set-ups today but the Q's and IWM both gave up after the first hour. I don't like the looks of the Q's because every single hourly candle had a tall neck (or what I call a steeple and you know what the steeples mean - end of trip).

I managed to get out in the fresh air today and play some golf so I didn't do much except dump my ORCL shares at COB. I dumped them for the simple reason that given an NDX run up by 19+ points it round- tripped to dead even. I am now holding some SYMC. I think that I'll close that position tomorrow and in fact go flat through the end of the year. We'll see.

The up/down ratio sits at 56% which is neutral but trending towards the bear. New 20 day highs are up to 811 and new lows are down to 270. These are not good numbers for an upwardly mobile market. The VIX is now 12% below its 10-day moving average and is back in single digits again. The Q's, IWM and GS all printed red candles in the final hour. But DIA and SPY didn't. So a mixed message there. And tomorrow is expiration day. Generally there isn't much volatility on expiration day so I expect tomorrow to be quiet. But you never know.

The magic coin gets to 37 and 27 having hit today square and for tomorrow --- tails - bear market. I think I agree.

Wrapping Wednesday

This is as funny as it gets - here is what I said about the magic coin yesterday evening - "But for tomorrow ... landed on its edge - just kidding - tails - bear market. Dumb coin" And damn if the market didn't wind up on the edge today. Way to go coin!

I followed the plan - on the jump I sold the half position of ORCL I bought yesterday afternoon for a little gain. Then I dumped ALTR for a little loss - wash out. And this afternoon I doubled up on SYMC for tomorrow.

I spent most of the morning watching MAMA (among others) trying to find a set-up but one never came - everything I was watching stayed as flat as the rest of the market. There were some nice ones that I saw this afternoon but they weren't on my radar this A.M. Oh well - looks like we'll rest now into the week after Christmas when there will be a little rally and then about the middle of January the money will start flowing again.

Anyway the up/down ratio is neutral at 43%, there were 523 new 20 day highs (a slight increase) and 443 new 20 day lows (a slight decrease) and the VIX is 10% below its 10 day moving average. The 4 major indices (DIA, SPY, QQQQ, IWM) we follow all finished the last hour strong white and GS, the proxy for the stock market for the 22nd century, finished with a doji. And, believe it or not, but it looks like a blow-off bottom for GS. As I said earlier I'd be surprised to see much more than the same as today for tomorrow.

The magic coin gets a bye for yesterday as I don't consider that either bullish or bearish more like dovish. So it stays 36 and 27 and for tomorrow .... authoritatively a head - bull market. Might happen - we'll see.

Wrapping Tuesday

Except for the fact that I'm actually carrying a small portfolio for swing trade purposes I welcome a down day. Now despite the blah blah blah from the bobbleheads on bubblevision (I don't watch I just read the headlines) it really wasn't because of the Fed or because of Best Buy or even because Oil went up or down or the dollar went somewhere or the trade deficit which last month caused the market to collapse because it went up this month caused the market to collapse because it went down. Whew - did I get it all in? I hope so. The reason why the market has been a little weak lately is because - are you ready Chuckles? - because there isn't anything to buy and most of the buyers are on the normal - ain't gonna do nothin' between now and Christmas/Chanukha/ Festival of F'in Lights or what have you because I'm on my out of pocket vacation. I.E. I'm screwing off because that's what we do between now and January 1st. Besides its options expiration week. What do you expect?

I had to get out of CTXS today because I couldn't stand the pain any longer and that one was hurting me. I probably sold too soon and if it starts going back up anytime soon I might reacquire - although for the life of me I don't know why. Replaced it with some GLW although that is probably going to prove to be a mistake as well - we'll see. At least it didn't go down. I also doubled up on my ORCL position this afternoon at close of business. If we get a good bounce tomorrow morning I'll sell off that portion for a quick profit. If not I'll sell the original half tomorrow at COB which was my plan anyway. ALTR and SYMC didn't do much either way today which is fine.

The VIX remains more than 5% but less than 10% below its 10 day average but the good news is that the up/down ratio is at 35%. There were 483 new 20 day highs and 506 new 20 day lows. The first time in 11 days the new lows outpaced the new highs. The 4 indices we track DIA, IWM, QQQQ, and SPY (actually the ETFs of indices) all finished the last hour strong. Only GS, off a report of extremely strong profits, finished the day down. That's normal - there is no place for GS to go now but down they've made all the money there is to make in the entire world (sarcasm off).

Put all of this together and I think there will be a small rally tomorrow and Thursday then a flat Friday (expiry day)and a weak week next week.

Old magic coin blew it today and starts the downward slide again - 36 and 27 - I smell a TV contract coming soon - isn't that how bubblevision rewards ostentatious mediocrity? But for tomorrow ... landed on its edge - just kidding - tails - bear market. Dumb coin.

Monday Wraps

It was 59 degrees today and I should have gone and played golf. I didn't. One time this afternoon I looked at my monitor and after 5 seconds or so I realized that the only thing moving was the clock on one of my windows. Things started fluttering a little after that. It was all I could do to stay awake.

I remain in my swing trades - SYMC, ORCL and ALTR and have added CTXS to the mix. I plan to hold these stocks each for at least 3 or 4 days unless they crash to their stop loss points at which time I will unload them. As bad as the day was I made some in SYMC and ORCL and didn't lose much in ALTR and CTXS. ALTR is shaping up as an interesting trade. It printed a NR7 today. The NR7 as you know is the narrowest range in the last 7 candles. The method I used to pick the swing trades was a filter - low near or through bottom Bollinger Band, MACD histogram in negative territory, one of the 4 highest volume stocks matching this filter's constraints. It back tests nicely and all I have to do is be prepared for some small losses and a couple of good size wins. I can do that.

I tried daytrading a little PFE early in the session but I didn't have it long as it turned around and I unloaded it for an $96 loss including commissions.

Just so I don't forget - KKD went up again today - I showed you the quad tweezer bottom on Friday. Remember this is just a lesson - I neither play KKD nor eat their donuts.

The market has several good things going in its favor - one is the Fed meeting that should announce an end to inflation in our time on Wednesday. And the second is that more and more stocks are finding their way to the bottom of the pile and not so many are being added at the top even though the market is going up.

Speaking of that - the up/down ratio is printing 47%, there were 610 new 20 day highs and 318 new 20 day lows. That was an increase of over 60 off Friday's number. Two of the five majors printed the last hour white so that's a mixed signal at best - the only time that signal is valid is if they are all white or all red - otherwise it's a wash.

The VIX is now 6% under its 10-day moving average and that's sliding towards the bearish side but just a little bit out of neutral territory. So we have a several mixed signals, neutral signals, and leaning bearish signals. I'm going to call tomorrow more of the same as today - waiting for the Fed to speak. Maybe a little bit down.

The magic coin is 36 and 26 because it hit today fairly well and for tomorrow it says .... heads - bull market again - maybe so.

Wrapping Friday

I'm late - but had a party last evening - a lot of that happening lately. Going to keep this short as I have several ideas burning and so I will have several more posts on the chart before the end of the weekend.

A very weak day - up certainly - but nothing to really cheer about. I took some swing trades (deliberately) which include SYMC, ORCL and ALTR (with the proviso that I can't stand any of these stocks). These trades will be completed when I hit the targets which will be exposed in a subsequent post this weekend - stay tuned.

Of the several stocks I said I would be watching, only IM and NFLX set-up well enough to take a shot at - but I passed. There were some great trades to be had, mostly in the health related sectors, but I missed all of them because I don't follow that sector at all.

For Monday the up/down ratio is back into the neutral territory as is the VIX. The only promise is that the new 20 day highs only surged forward by 11 even though the new 20 day lows retreated by 25 or so. They are now printing 581 and 248 respectively. I thought we could get all of the major indices to print red in the last hour but Goldman Sachs (the proxy for the market for the 22nd century) surged to green at end. Can't keep a good brokerage down (or a bad one either for that matter).

Those of you who visit here often know that I firmly believe that the only thing that moves the markets is having something to buy and right now it looks as if the "buy me bin" is filling up nicely for the next year. In Tuesday's wrap I mentioned that the Bollinger Band high-low numbers were 200 high and 9 low - after Friday's close that number is now 85 high and 59 low. That is goodness for the bull case and it appears as if the bear case will just continue to be weak. It could always change but a bear market always comes at the very height of irrational exuberance and this isn't it. There is nothing irrational about the current valuations regardless of what the perma-bears say - the average market PE is not too terribly high (obviously I'm too lazy to look it up or I would tell you what it is) so I think this sideways-up stuff will just continue for some time. What is happening is that some stocks are getting way over valued and others are going way under valued. The hedge funds and funds of funds have been working for years and years in an effort to identify the market at that micro level and seem to be succeeding. (Quantitative analysis). They sell off the way over valued and switch immediately into the way undervalued. Consequently one day a stock is going up and the next it is falling and no one knows why except on bubblevision where some bobblehead blames it on everything (interest rates, jobs, economy, blah blah blah) other than what is really happening which is good old fashioned horse trading. Something to buy - something to sell - that's what it is all about kids - nothing more, nothing less.

The magic coin is 35 and 26 and is improving daily with its truly miraculous calls and I'm so impressed that I'm going to let it do it again for Monday - coin says --- Crikey! - Heads! Bull market again - start buying everything in sight at the open.

Don't laugh too hard - it may happen just that way.

Wrapping Wednesday

Took HANS today as soon as it broke yesterday's high which was the last tick yesterday. Made a buck and change on it and am very happy. Also played AFFX but that turned into an investment - it was only up about 20 cents all day from where I bought it and I decided to hold it overnight. I'm OK with this because I believe that the market is going up tomorrow based on the internals that I watch. More about that later.

I took AFFX as a result of something I saw on the 2-hour charts using a new theory that I'm working on. I'm not ready to divulge it yet because I think I might have just got lucky but if it pans out I'll share it with you. Yesterday, if you recall I mentioned that I would be watching AFFX, CTXS, and BRCM today. Of course I won't play a stock unless there is a viable set-up.

I played AFFX off a gap down set-up. As I mentioned it went up about 20 cents from where I played it. Had I picked up BRCM from its gap down set-up I would have made a little more. CTXS didn't set-up until late in the day and by that time I was busy with other things. So all three stocks set-up and all three went up from their set-ups on an overall down day but I want to make sure of my proposition before I share it with you. It might take a while because I don't like rushing these things. In the meantime if you look at the 2-hour charts on your own and figure it out for yourself - even better for you since it will be like you are discovering it on your own and that's not a bad thing.

For tomorrow, using the same approach, I'll be watching ATHR, SYMC, PTEN,and CRM for playable set-ups. As well as trying to find a spot to unload AFFX.

For tomorrow the up/down ratio is printing 41% which is nearly oversold territory, the new 20 day highs pulled back by a third to 724 and the new 20 day lows increased by 10% to 178. The three sisters and the proxy for the 22nd century all printed very strong white candles and only IWM printed red in the final hour. Put it all together and I see an up market tomorrow.

The magic coin has fallen on hard times having fallen to 33 and 26 because it missed today too. For tomorrow --- tails - bear market - I doubt it but, we'll see.