Thursday, January 18, 2007

An Apple a Day?

Here we go again - the market, having run out of C stocks to abuse, will now turn its attention to a great source of vitamin C - AAPL. Yesterday evening, based on the early numbers and massive celebration that followed thereafter I failed to notice that AAPL too has forecast a missed analyst estimate by 4 cents - 4 cents. That, of course, is sufficient to drive AAPL into debtors prison and to punish all of the folks who are holding AAPL in their retirement accounts. AAPL finished the evening down another 70+ cents.

And even though GLW has nothing to do with AAPL I'm sure GLW is going to get punished too. And SYMC too. And watch MOT give it all up because, after all, they make something like phones like AAPL does. And NOK and probably the oil stocks too because isn't there a lot of oil used in plastic and doesn't AAPL rely heavily on plastic for their IPOD cases not to mention their failing Mac line.

The only one that is going to win is MSFT because MSFT is the direct opposite competitor of AAPL.

Remember - day three of the GOOG short squeeze watch is upon us. Pay attention kiddies - learn something. Learn that Jimmy Crack Corn is an entertainer and his jokes are starting to show their age.


Anonymous said...

"...their failing Mac line"

Dude, don't make me start an Apple flame war over here! :) Unless of course you would like some additional traffic, in which case I'm here for ya!

People have been predicting the end of Macs since 1984. Ain't gonna happen as long as MSFT products suck as bad as they do. Which is the ONLY guarantee MSFT can make about their products. Snark.

Besides, now that Macs run on Intel, they are even easier to write applications for, which means Macs will be around for another, oh, 20 years or so, at least until Jobs invents telepathic computers.

Apple. Think it. Do it. No hardware required.

And people think the iPhone is cool stuff! Hmm, maybe I should file a patent now to secure those royalties. Ha!

Good luck out their today.

Anonymous said...

I don't want to misinterpret Marlyn's post but wasn't the point just a tongue in cheek comment that the market is looking at the forecast irrationally? It's only $.04 and the doomsday view quickly bubbles up and extends to irrational selling of oil which goes into plastics which goes into the (tongue in cheek) "failing mac line"?

Anonymous said...

Yeah. But I'm not going to let that keep me from harrassing the guy.

Today looks to be a mediocre day, so I need to do something for entertainment.

Besides, I haven't seen a good Apple flame war in years. Might be fun to start one just for the hell of it!

Marlyn Trades said...

Bring it on!

(Just don't hurt me 00000)

Bullish Jim said...

Great post, Marlyn.

The increasingly large bearish side of me wonders if the AAPL earnings reaction (see also INTC)is going to be the typical reaction to most earnings reports in the next couple weeks. With the enormous run of the Nas over the past six months hasn't the market priced in any and all possible good news?

(I'm banking on this rationale by paring back on my core QQQQ holding and continuing to hold MSFT puts in anticipation of them being slaughted by an earnings report that is just shy of perfect.)

Anonymous said...

I'm beginning to share your view Jim. Not sure there is ANY earnings report that will prevent stocks from getting knee capped. Everyone seems to be looking for an excuse to dump and run.

Apple's blowout quarter should have been the story, but its their guidance down a mere four cents or so that Marlyn has commented on that is knocking AAPL down.

Miss by $.04, get clubbed by $4.

I'm probably going to sell MSFT tomorrow because I think they all gone down just because. However, I'm going to wait until tomorrow's open to see if people regain their senses after a good night's sleep.

Bullish Jim said...

Good plan, Dogwood. Luckily (?) for me I got stopped out of half my portfolio today I didn't need to think about whether to sell tomorrow morning...


I would avoid apple.