Friday, January 26, 2007

Friday Wrapper

I don't know what that was - a sideways we don't know what to do day do dah do dah do dah day. It wasn't really up but it certainly wasn't really down. They closed well off the lows of the day and all the majors formed nice looking hammers. The hammer at the top is called a hanging man and generally signals a reversal. These hammers however are forming below the highs so it is possible that they are truly hammers and the pullback we witnessed this afternoon was truly a rush to buy stuff. As I noted in the midday wrap a lot of issues suddenly started looking oversold.

I'm still holding that KKD I bought yesterday because, obviously, I didn't get a bounce today. But I don't think it is a risk to hold it over the weekend. Also hold CRVL still and the Q's. Contrary to the indicators there the Q's did not go up this week - thereby breaking a 6-month tradition. Is this the end of the bull market? I don't know.

OIH was down a bit and MAT was up a bit. GOOG had a small short squeeze but nothing to write home about. MSFT for all the storm and fury gained all of 15 cents on the day. As promised here is the rest of that Q's chart from this morning.

So what happened? At 11:30-12:00 we had a blow-off bottom that was obvious - the problem being there was no follow through. There were some attempts but nothing special and we finished about where we started the blow-off. That would be what I would call a normal Friday afternoon.

Next week - I'm hesitant to say. The normal indicators are all looking bad for an up day because the market took all the frosting off the cake this afternoon. The up/down ratio ended the day at 51% or double yesterday and the new 20-day high/low ratio ended at 61%. The former ratio is neutral and the latter is overbought. The VIX also pulled back inside the neutral zone this afternoon. The only thing in our favor for an up day is the fact that all five components of my major index indicator finished the last hour down. This happens about twice a month and usually the next day is up. So I'm going out on a limb and saying that Monday is an up day.

The magic coin meanwhile says ... tails - down day on Monday.

Today despite the fact that most of it came back towards the end must be considered a down day. Consequently I was wrong and the score is now Marlyn 7 - 5 and 1 and the coin is 5 - 7 and 1.

1 comment:


Time to wrap things up.