Sunday, January 21, 2007

3 Month Low

This is proving to be an elusive filter - it works as written and here it is

Show stocks where close reached a new 3 month low 15 days ago
and Average Volume(90) is above 500000
and close is between 15 and 35

Without doing anything at all except to play the highest volume stock that is output by the filter every day for 77 days it returned 66% winners and a 91% ROI with a reward/risk factor of 2.3. When I shifted the test period to the most current period (taking in last week for example) it returned 62% winners and a 85% ROI with a 2.68 reward/risk factor. It pumps out net change values of 6.16 over 20 days and 5.78 over 30 days.

These are very good numbers for such a simple minded filter - and they prove beyond a doubt that there are people out there buying nearly every dip that happens (doh!). Here's the rub - my filtering software ( does a great job on daily values but weekly requires a bit more effort and I haven't expended it yet. And it is on the weekly charts that I can see what I want to do - the problem is I can't translate that (yet) to daily values. (And trust me - it isn't the software it is the programmer and that would be me in this instance).

Here is a picture of one of the selections - this is weekly data

You can see clearly what constitutes a winner - the problem is I need to be able to address the data points in weekly terms rather than daily terms. Point "a" is the high of the week when the lowest low occurred. On a weekly basis it is easy to see. I need to figure out how to identify it using Stockfetcher. I'm fairly certain that it is an easy thing to do - I just haven't done it yet. (By the way - a blow-off bottom formed on this stock last week - I'm putting it on the watchlist).

This dip method is showing the most promise yet. So bear with me and I'll get the problem solved.

If you haven't checked out yet I don't know what you are waiting for. They allow free access that won't give you everything a relatively inexpensive subscription can provide but at least it will give you an idea of what they are all about. I do my own programming but they have hundreds of ready mades that you can use as is or quickly and easily modify for your own uses. Also many people share their methods and some of them are a lot more complex than anything I'll ever write.

I receive nothing for this endorsement and do not seek anything for it. I use this software, I like it, and that's sufficient for me to suggest it.

1 comment:


Another unusual week in the market.