Saturday, January 06, 2007

Wrapping the First Week

I was listening to Bloomberg radio in the car yesterday and the guy said - with all seriousness - that the Dow was down about a half a percent for the year. And you wonder why I don't pay any attention to those bozo's.

Both AES and BLG crapped out and hit the stop loss. Oh well - they were speculative buys and I was trying a new approach. Obviously I need to refine my process a bit. I'm still holding SYMC and DHI and as one goes up the other goes down which is OK for now - but I expect DHI to turn around sooner rather than later.

The good news is that the up/down ratio is at 25% which is about as low as it gets. The new 20 day high/low ratio is at 14% and looking back that seems to be about as low as it ever got. This means that there is something to buy on Monday.

The three majors, DIA, SPY, and the Q's finished mixed in their last hour as did IWM and GS. But if you have a minute this weekend take a look at the 60-minute charts for DIA, SPY, QQQQ, and IWM for Thursday. Look at the last hour and you will see what a blow-off top on the indices looks like.

The VIX is in the yellow zone (greater than 5% over its 10-day less than 10%) so there is some weakness indicated (or maybe "suggested" is a better word). I think that Monday brings a bit of an up day across the board.

The Magic Coin disagrees and says it will be a bear market. Remember - I'm going to keep track of my predictions vs the coin's and we'll see who is better in a couple of months.

And even though you didn't ask - mom's in great shape for 87 years old - still lives in her own house and drives her own car. Sees the doctor every now and again for the heart problems but if I'm in half as good a shape when I get to 87 I'll be very pleased (and it will be an improvement). My brother is close at hand and takes her on longer trips but otherwise she gets around pretty good.


Bullish Jim said...

Welcome back, Marlyn. Glad you had a good trip. You were missed...


Another great week.