Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Wrapping Wednesday

Well I guess that's what happened - up through R2 and drift sideways to the close.

AKS did well today. I'm still not sure whether I'm going to hold GGB through earnings or not. At least it went up today which is different from the last couple of days. I hate dumping stocks that are first - going up into earnings and second - in a sector where more companies are doing well than not. I think US Steel has everyone spooked because they guided lower for the second quarter. I know it has me spooked.

The BGG trade is working well - it's up off the buy price significantly. I sold AV too soon but I made 30 cents each on a boat load of shares and that isn't too shabby - could have made another 12 - 15 cents had I held it but why be greedy. It will still be there tomorrow. (I also can't help but notice that I'm holding one stock named GGB and one stock named BGG - a coincidence - I hope so).

I found AV using a new filter I'm working on that looks for stocks between 12 and 18 with an average volume over 90 days greater than 500K shares and the close is greater than the close 5 days ago. There are a couple of other points but that is the basis of the filter the rest are just to shake out the pretenders. For a day trade filter what more could you want - it puts out a ton of stocks but I only watch the first 10 by yesterday's volume and if I get some action - so be it. The top three picks this morning were BSX, SYMC and AV. Both BSX and SYMC had cross over formations but AV was a return to 4 - and it was first to set-up. You're welcome to try this yourselves if you want to do some day trading on stocks that seem to want to go up.

Why 12 to 18? Because I'm looking at lower volatility (average true range) for day trading. I'm tired of the momo monkeys - I want to make my money in a more leisurely manner.

The model portfolio went up 2.78% today to 15.20% and I'm pretty sure your mutual fund didn't do as well. The benchmark went up .87 to 6.52%.

The three amigos sent out mixed signals today. AAPL did well and went back over 100 but - that was only .92% - the model portfolio had 10 out of 12 stocks go up over 1.45% today. Doesn't seem right that such a wildly successful company does so poorly. MSFT, of course, remains range bound and I'm still not sure why people are in this stock - maybe it's the dividend - yeah - that's it - the dividend - so remind me again why you are still holding GOOG? Still waiting for the short squeeze - notice that Jimmy Crack Corn Pone has removed it from his radar?

Speaking of momo - NewMoMo made a turn back up today and I don't particularly like that. If we don't get some quality time lower we are just going to struggle to go higher.


The INDU ATR went up again to 102.50 and that means - all together now - the rally will continue. Now I know it can't go up every single day but the fact is it won't or shouldn't go down strong until the ATR drops below 80. At least that's been the way it has worked for a number of years now.

The VIX is back to neutral but the up/down ratio is at 70% and that might mean a little less exuberance tomorrow and maybe even into Friday.

I've got to go with the up/down ratio and that suggests that we probably have an off day tomorrow. That's OK - we need a little rain every once in awhile - helps the garden grow.

Coin also sees a down day tomorrow --- flipped a tail.


The coin and I hit it again so the score is now Marlyn 29 - 28 and 12 and the coin is 33 - 24 and 12.

3 comments:

Matt V. said...

Marlyn,

What time-period are you using for the INDU ATR?

Thanks,
Matt

Marlyn Trades said...

Daily chart atr(10)

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