Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Wrapping Tuesday

It was a down day - well for most of the day anyway. The few points off the DOW INDU is nothing to be concerned with - although the bobbleheads on bubblevision will probably try to make it a crisis. Nothing goes down during 401K week. Next week - different story.

You'll have to look it up - but two days after I sell my AKS holdings it pops on a takeover report. It looks valid but you never know. I managed to get a little back (I said I'd buy it over $32) although I missed most of today's move. However, if the report is factual and 40 dollars is the bid then we should see some additional movement over the next couple of weeks.

Still holding AV, GGB, and BGG. I sold about a third of my AV for a small loss and had I held it to close of business it would have been a small profit - but I have no patience for crappy stocks. Even though it went up yesterday it is just bouncing around with no apparent trend in sight. I hate cheap stocks. Speaking of which (cheap stocks) good old CMGI took off for parts unknown (at least not since 1999) today.

BGG is becoming my new darling - I keep looking for a pullback so I can buy more but it won't so I won't. I bought that off a cross over and it has paid super dividends since. The more I look at the cross over stocks the more I like them.


The cross over is on 05/01. This is a simple enough method - just wait for a stock to open below the three primary EMA (4, 8 and 21) and close above them and take a position. Put your stop (physical or mental) below the open. It works on every time frame from minutes to months.

CMGI could have been a cross over play too -


I've published a lot of cross over charts and will put some more up later - a couple of good ones.

The three amigos had a mixed day - AAPL went up a buck and change, GOOG went down change and MSFT made 4 cents for its loyal followers. You have to be so in love with Bill Gates that you'd be willing to have his baby in order to justify your love of this stock. Why did AAPL go up today? Nobody knows including AAPL.

KNOT broke out today - why does that figure - market goes up strong - KNOT drops - market has so so day - KNOT goes up. Not enough for a cross over but enough to keep an eye on.

There is another play which is the non-cross over - this is when a stock just kind of drifts up through its averages but never with a strong up thrust. Watch out for this kind of stock because generally (again a weasel word) they just go sideways from there. They are flattening out and that is never a good situation - at least not for either a swing or day trade.

The model portfolio went up .15 to 17.79% and the benchmark lost .07 to 7.44%.

The INDU ATR is down a bit more to 85.62 - remember 80 is the key - a break of 80 low and we should get a pull back in the averages in the next couple of days.

The VIX remains neutral which is its favorite configuration and the up/down ratio printed a 40% which is also on the edge of neutral and this indicator is also neutral -

But I will say this - the last time it was like this (7 months ago) the market went down for a couple of days before it resumed its every climbing ways.

Bottom line? I don't have a clue - I think we get a good day tomorrow and then a bit of weakness through the rest of the week and maybe through the rest of the month.

The coin says heads ... calling for an up day tomorrow.

Monday was another mixed day tie so the score is now Marlyn 30 - 29 and 13 and the coin is 34 - 25 and 13.

4 comments:

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