Wrapping Wednesday

Well I guess that's what happened - up through R2 and drift sideways to the close.

AKS did well today. I'm still not sure whether I'm going to hold GGB through earnings or not. At least it went up today which is different from the last couple of days. I hate dumping stocks that are first - going up into earnings and second - in a sector where more companies are doing well than not. I think US Steel has everyone spooked because they guided lower for the second quarter. I know it has me spooked.

The BGG trade is working well - it's up off the buy price significantly. I sold AV too soon but I made 30 cents each on a boat load of shares and that isn't too shabby - could have made another 12 - 15 cents had I held it but why be greedy. It will still be there tomorrow. (I also can't help but notice that I'm holding one stock named GGB and one stock named BGG - a coincidence - I hope so).

I found AV using a new filter I'm working on that looks for stocks between 12 and 18 with an average volume over 90 days greater than 500K shares and the close is greater than the close 5 days ago. There are a couple of other points but that is the basis of the filter the rest are just to shake out the pretenders. For a day trade filter what more could you want - it puts out a ton of stocks but I only watch the first 10 by yesterday's volume and if I get some action - so be it. The top three picks this morning were BSX, SYMC and AV. Both BSX and SYMC had cross over formations but AV was a return to 4 - and it was first to set-up. You're welcome to try this yourselves if you want to do some day trading on stocks that seem to want to go up.

Why 12 to 18? Because I'm looking at lower volatility (average true range) for day trading. I'm tired of the momo monkeys - I want to make my money in a more leisurely manner.

The model portfolio went up 2.78% today to 15.20% and I'm pretty sure your mutual fund didn't do as well. The benchmark went up .87 to 6.52%.

The three amigos sent out mixed signals today. AAPL did well and went back over 100 but - that was only .92% - the model portfolio had 10 out of 12 stocks go up over 1.45% today. Doesn't seem right that such a wildly successful company does so poorly. MSFT, of course, remains range bound and I'm still not sure why people are in this stock - maybe it's the dividend - yeah - that's it - the dividend - so remind me again why you are still holding GOOG? Still waiting for the short squeeze - notice that Jimmy Crack Corn Pone has removed it from his radar?

Speaking of momo - NewMoMo made a turn back up today and I don't particularly like that. If we don't get some quality time lower we are just going to struggle to go higher.


The INDU ATR went up again to 102.50 and that means - all together now - the rally will continue. Now I know it can't go up every single day but the fact is it won't or shouldn't go down strong until the ATR drops below 80. At least that's been the way it has worked for a number of years now.

The VIX is back to neutral but the up/down ratio is at 70% and that might mean a little less exuberance tomorrow and maybe even into Friday.

I've got to go with the up/down ratio and that suggests that we probably have an off day tomorrow. That's OK - we need a little rain every once in awhile - helps the garden grow.

Coin also sees a down day tomorrow --- flipped a tail.


The coin and I hit it again so the score is now Marlyn 29 - 28 and 12 and the coin is 33 - 24 and 12.

Wrapping Wednesday

Been gone so long I've almost forgotten how. As a test of my resolve and discipline during my vacation I went one full week without logging on to the internet. It is amazing how little I missed in that time. The political situation remains the same, the market remains the same, Jimmy Crack Corn Pone stays as crazy as ever and the only thing that has changed is me - I'm a week older and a bit smarter for the experience. I'm going to try it about once a quarter from now on. Can't hurt - might even help.

Oh well - just because we're retired doesn't mean we can slack off. Let's have a wrap -

I expected the markets to be down today and they were split but that isn't anything new anymore. After all there was a new record in the wind. Still you can't have the Dow components up and the tech components down - it just doesn't make sense. I'm not sure how INTC actually made money this quarter while fighting with AMD for market share and cutting share prices while the PC market that is supposedly doing so well is such absolute toast that the retailers are practically giving away desk tops as premiums to get you to come into their stores. Can you say "Cook(ed) Book(s)"?

I sold off GRA this morning because I didn't like the way it was progressing, to wit it lost a quarter in the week I was gone. The rest of the market went the other way and so I'm taking the quarter loss as a sign of concern regarding earnings which are coming up on the 24th. I also sold off OI based on its 20 cent loss in the past week and that too might be concern over earnings coming next week. At any rate I'm taking no chances this particular season. My current positions include KNOT, AKS, and GGB. I increased KNOT this morning off the S2 - it went up to pivot and then dropped back to S1 were it sat most of the day. And I added to AKS also - that might have been a mistake because it too is coming up on earnings and while GGB went up AKS fell back. I'll watch another day or so and then, if it keeps dropping I'll dump out on Friday until after earnings next week. No day trading today - I need a little time to get back my rhythm.

I see the Q's took a dump in the last half hour as did SPY and DIA. That's generally a concessionary movement and it suggests (only "suggests") a down day coming tomorrow.

The three amigos - GOOG, MSFT, and AAPL continued their winsome ways - these are the three most beloved stocks in the entire world because they are so profitable. MSFT had 4 days of gains and made all of 50 cents for its true believers while it continues to meander in the range we identifed about 9 months ago. GOOG is in a rising formation and will probably hit 513 any day now and after that --- boom!--- right to 520 having touched off the world's longest awaited short squeeze. And, as was predicted here first - APPL hit 90 before it hit 100. I wouldn't load up just yet there's more bad news ahead. The only reason a stock declines into earnings is fear. If AAPL puts out a bad number next week it might lose 15% before the first 5 minutes of the trading day.

The cult of MVIS had a good week but then came yesterday and the cathedral of dead money -


so cult fans - I guess it's time to sell and wait for the next pull back.

My model portfolio is printing 13.70% which is OK but a bit disappointing and another sign of future declines (rate of change is dropping). The benchmark is at 4.89%.

The VIX pulled back into the neutral zone but what I find interesting is that the INDU ATR is now approaching 80.


I gave you a two-month view on this one so you could admire my brilliance in ATR reading. I told you that when the ATR rolled over on the INDU we would have a sustained market rise. Well that happened - and, as I've mentioned before - once the ATR drops below 80 it is a danger signal and usually precedes a multi-day correction. It is currently at 82.93. So keep an eye on it.

This guy still indicates market weakness coming -


The up/down ratio says 40% and that means only one thing - an up day tomorrow regardless of what the other indicators are saying.

The coin says ... tails - down day coming.

Going back to last Monday's forecast when the coin won the score stands at Marlyn 24 - 25 and 10 and the coin is 27 - 22 and 10. I always say that I'd rather be lucky than good.

WTF?

This guy continues to lose touch with reality.

Jimmy Crack Corn Pone said

Another 60 cents and Yahoo will be there. You could see this developing if you have ever handled a panic order as i have. The order would be "take this sucker to $27.5 i want it off my sheets."

He is talking about this stock


and I don't have a clue what he is talking about.

Check out the whole story at Adam's Options but don't expect Adam to have a clue either.

You Won't See This On the Street

Jimmy Crack Corn Pone scores again -

NOTED: Shares of Dendreon have tripled since March 28, when "Mad Money" host James Cramer told his viewers to sell the Seattle biotechnology company's stock. The day after Cramer made the recommendation on his CNBC show, the Food and Drug Administration endorsed Dendreon's prostate cancer vaccine -- news Cramer said he "did not expect." (The New York Times, free registration required)

This guy is hazardous to your portfolio - but just keep watching and playing along with him - he'll have a huge hit soon and then he will have the last laugh on all of us.

This Isn't Stupid

It's moronic!

I don't know how many of you have been following the Lenny Dykstra AMGN saga over on Adam's Daily Options site but it is both hilarious and actually something I would expect to see related to Jimmy Crack Corn Pone. Go take a look and hurry back - I have to add my two cents.

Today's chapter has one of the Real Money boys, Dan Fitz saying

On March 16, he noted that the decline in the stock was unexpected, but equated it to batting averages. He also urged to look at the true value of a company, not its most recent performance.

Now I had to go see this stock for myself and here it is -



And Lenny has 58 large in this play. Now I don't really give a crap how much Lenny Dykstra has in the game or how many loyal followers he has as deeply involved as he is - what I want to know is - what did anyone see in this stock since, oh say the middle of January, that would convince anyone to put that much money into it? And once in - why continue to double down?

And just for the record the July 55 calls are now worth about 46K so he's down 12 large. And there is no guarantee that this pile of steaming dung won't resume the fall on Monday. Earnings are on the 19th and that means a week to get back a lot of money and that isn't going to happen. I hope he gets a good number.