Showing posts with label BGG. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BGG. Show all posts

Thursday, May 17, 2007

A Good Day Trade Method

I've always liked the counter trade where the stock opens and then begins dropping and then reverses. For years I played this based on tweezer bottoms, 15-minute BOB's and other indicators - many of which were good, some not so good. But the best way that I have found to play the counter trade is with pivot points.

Here is BGG as an example


At 11 A.M. BGG dropped through the S1 point (green on my display) after bouncing off of it twice before (15-minute charts). As far as I'm concerned it is a high probability point to buy off the 11 A.M. candle just as it transitions to the 11:15 candle and set your stop just below the 11 A.M. candle's low. At 12 A.M. it met resistance at the day's pivot point but based on the thrusting action ahead of this I I decided to keep it and see what happened next. This could also be considered a Return to 4 move which it turned out to be. Once more it went back through the pivot point and finally hit R1. At R1 you got a decisive move down at 14:00 and that would have been a great time to exit this trade. Actually there is no fault in exiting when the stock breaches R1 at 13:15 because the move would be exhausted by that time.

One thing that you might want to do is to examine this chart in the context of the candle's body and the EMA 4. One of the reasons that I use EMA 4 is that it seems to act as an immediate attractor for the stock price. And when the candle's body leaves contact with the EMA 4 either high or low there is almost an immediate attempt by the price to reestablish contact. Now I'm not suggesting that all of the trader's in the stock follow the EMA 4 - they don't but what I am suggesting is that stocks become locally oversold or overbought and the EMA 4 seems to monitor that condition.

The end of the day saw the stock go into an interesting situation - a pivot retest, a crossover, and a tweezer bottom coming off an RSI(2) < 2 all at once. Had this occurred earlier in the day it might have been actionable but I never carry over 15-minute charts from one day to the next.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007

Tuesday Morning

Can't fool the market - at least not the NASDAQ - watch them tech shares go down. The other thing that was going down was BGG and I should have sold it out two days ago on the hanging man on 5/11 but I didn't. Arrogant fool that I am I believed - so much for believing. I sold most of it and am keeping a handful of shares just in case it might resume the march. I still don't trust this market and I think that that we need a 4 or 5 day correction.

I added to USU on a 15-minute bar cross over at the open and I added onto AV on an S1 hit and bounce on the open. Both those trades appear to be working out.

ANO continues to do nothing and GGB is now my only steel stock and so I'm going to hang on to it for a bit. I think it is getting ready to breakout.

Other than that I think I'm done for the day so I'll see you tonight at the Wrap.

Update - I just can't get enough of it - sold off ANO because it isn't participating (have I ever mentioned that I hate cheap stocks?) for an $86 loss and bought JNPR in its place. JNPR is one of the stocks from my must buy list ("must" in the sense of when you need a quick lift). I'm planning on dumping out of AV too - but I need another 2 cents to cover the round trip commissions. I'm fairly certain I'm not going to get it today.

Update 2 - I dumped out of AV for a $40 loss - didn't get the 2 cents and in fact lost another 2 cents - decided to let it go before it got the best of me. I just couldn't believe.

Monday, May 14, 2007

Wrapping Monday

What a boring day. The market is waiting for the CPI data - the market already knows that there will be inflation in it so why it is waiting I don't know but that's the headline story so it's what we'll go with. Maybe there will be a CPI surprise but I doubt it - I smell inflation in the air. But if it comes in .0001% less than the expected then watch out above. To business -

I bought and sold and re-bought USU today. Once this morning and once this afternoon. I sold of AKS and I'm done with it. I'll wait for the next major pullback - I think that stock is finished. I bought (only once) ANO and even though it lost 6 cents on me I'll hold it for awhile. I managed to round out GGB to a full position and now I'm done with that one. If it doesn't continue to rise I'll sell it just as quickly as I bought it back.

There isn't much in the market any more that looks very appealing. I'm still holding BGG and AV and the latter went up today and the former didn't.

At one time today the VIX was actually more than 10% over its 10 day MA and now it is back to neutral.

The model portfolio lost 1.88 to 17.63 and the benchmark lost .21 to 7.24. The benchmark is doing a lot better in a down market than the model. That is to be expected because the model has a lot of high beta stocks in it and they will gain quickly and lose quickly too. It is not a balanced portfolio only a growth portfolio.

AAPL continues the march forward, GOOG continues the retreat, and MSFT continues to go sideways.

The INDU ATR printed 91.23 and that means that the rally will continue (after a small pause).

This guy went down some more -


and that is goodness because what it is showing is a coiling action in preparation of an explosive move up. Well I think so, anyway.

The up/down ratio printed 33% which is in the oversold territory.

As always I'll go with the up/down ratio and call tomorrow an up day.

The coin follows my lead although I don't know why and also calls for an up day.

This was one more split day - they are becoming routine and that has to mean something although what I don't know. Anyway the score stands at Marlyn 34 - 29 and 14 and the coin is 37 - 25 and 14.

See you tomorrow.

Friday, May 11, 2007

Friday Wraps

OMGIF! A nice recovery was had by all and right off the bat I want to show you something you might have missed. Here is the INDU over the past two days - can anyone spot the common feature?


That's right - both days began with a cross over! Yesterday the cross over said - "going down" - today it said - "going up". Could anything be more obvious?

I sold KNOT for a small profit, a bit more than a happy meal but I'm not going to eat at Ruth's Chris tonight either. Actually the Bride is in the kitchen whipping up her famous Italian sausage, meatballs and spaghetti, and the entire house is in a garlic stupor.

Anyway I'm back in AKS because it seems to want to continue to go up from here and the bulk up in GGB and BGG yesterday afternoon paid dividends today and then some more. I also made a play in AV again and I'll share that with you in a separate post. We'll run through that trade for you and I'll show the new folks how I use QuoteTracker in my daily business. Not that you would do it the same way but it might get you started on an easy path.

The three Amigos are signaling that all is right with the tech world. GOOG made 5 and change, AAPL made 1 and some and MSFT, the most loved stock of all time, second only to GM, returned 31 cents for its loyal followers. I'm not sure who doesn't own MSFT who needs to own MSFT and why they would pay 31 cents more than the going price for the privilege but as Barnum said - there's a sucker born every minute...

The INDU ATR made a beeline back into the 90's today and that is goodness because it means - all together now - the rally will continue.

My model portfolio started a nice recovery and brought back 2.17% to close at 19.89% and the benchmark still lags at 7.39. For those of you who don't have calculators that's 12.50% in alpha off a portfolio that I threw together on February 28th in about 15 minutes time without regard to fundamentals, sector analysis or anything other than pure TA. I gotta ask - did your mutual fund make 12.5% alpha in the last 2 and a half months? Or was it closer to the benchmark?

This guy remains below -0.005% and that is OK - and even though I sound all chipper and happy I was kind of hoping for another down day or two.



The VIX remains in neutral and the up/down ratio printed 68%.

I think yesterday was an aberration, today is just an aftershock, and all of this means we probably go down now for a couple of days. Don't be surprised.

The coin says ... tails - down also - wiseass coin is reading this and then making its predictions - that's just not right.

And again we both hit it today so the score is now Marlyn 34 - 29 and 13 and the coin is 37 - 25 and 13.

Thursday, May 10, 2007

Thursday Wraps

How about that! The ATR < 80 works again. The only question left is will the market continue down tomorrow? And we'll get to that presently - first business.

I went and played golf. But before I left I sold everything but GGB and BGG and in fact I added to both of them and they are now both at 80% of a full position. GGB remains profitable and BGG is currently losing 6 bucks - total - but I own a whole lot of shares so a rebound tomorrow and we are back in the money.

I also bought a quarter position in KNOT. And KNOT, after losing 3 bucks + change on a not-so-bad earnings report, actually went up from where I bought back in. I had forgotten that I had a stop loss actually in place for all of the good it did - when the stock bottomed and bounced it sold off. That's why I seldom use a physical stop loss - I just forgot to take it off yesterday before the close.

I'm going to leave the three Amigos alone tonight - the fact that AAPL actually made money today is amazing - the other two did what they usually do.

The INDU ATR is now back above 80 at 87.94 which is good. The model portfolio lost 2.34% to 17.34 and the benchmark lost 1.05 to 6.55. The VIX remains in neutral but this guy, for the first time in 55 trading days dropped below -0.005%.


The best news though is that the up/down ratio is printing 27% and I'm going with these two indicators plus the ATR and calling for an up day tomorrow.

The coin is also calling for an up day tomorrow.

Once again we both hit it today so the score is now Marlyn 33 - 29 and 13 and the coin is 36 - 25 and 13. The coin is still better by far.

I'll be back early tomorrow with some Quote Tracker code for one of the readers and we'll discuss today in a little more depth.

Wednesday, May 09, 2007

Wednesday Wraps

I had a good day and I hope you did too. Kind of hard not to the way the market is flowing. The Fed announcement caused a little froth not much more than that. I was watching the Forex screens and they told me all I needed to know quickly. I.E. - the market was going to resume its climb.

I added to AKS on a pullback just before the Fed announcement. Apparently the traders liked what they heard and AKS went up again. I added to BGG twice today although I'm sure I'm just being a bit irrational but I like the stock, I like the way it goes up most of the time, and I like making money. I'm still holding KNOT but didn't add to it although if it pulls back a bit tomorrow I may then. Still holding GGB and I should have added to it at least at 10 A.M. today but I didn't - my lost opportunity. Can anyone tell me why I should have added at 10?


Everyone who said - "Cross Over!" wins. However, a careful examination of the chart suggests that the Return to 4 at 11:00 was also a good opportunity to add. It pays to watch your swing trades and to take advantage of the opportunities they provide.

I sold out my AV shares including the part I bought this morning. Made a very nice profit on the transaction - about 5% in 5 days. Is it done? I don't know but I know I am for the time being. Will I play it again? Sure it may set up nice once more - right now it appears to be a bit oversold - the RSI(2) is > 95.

If you recall AV was purchased off a silly filter that I call 12 to 18 and rising - which describes it perfectly. I was looking for some cheap stocks that might have had a bit of interest in them. AV apparently has. If I get a pullback I might get back in. Again, let's try to guess why I bought more AV this morning.


Can't fool you guys can I? How hard is this? And yes, these are the 30-minute charts - it's a good idea on Fed day to use longer term charts because the market generally is moving slowly.

I sold out the MENT shares - I should have held them for another 15 minutes and I would have made a buck or two but as it was I lost $3 including R/T commission.

How quickly the mighty fall. Here is poor DNDN - a stock I made some money on a couple of weeks ago - down 64% today because the FDA wants some more information regarding their prostate cancer drug. Why the market sees that as a major negative is beyond me but it does and now DNDN is just another bio-crappa in the crapper.


The best part - one of the anal-holes covering the stock, upon seeing it drop 64% on the open, changed his rating from "Buy" to "Hold". Isn't that amazing? Like what else are you going to do with this piece of crap now? Do you think anyone who is responsible for any kind of real money actually pays any attention to those morons? No, they don't and neither should you. Analysts still exist for one reason only - to give the Broker help in fleecing the retail trade. And you can quote me. Thank God for the Internet - the only reason I talk to my brokerage is to give 'em hell when the interface fails.

The model portfolio put another 2% on today and is printing 20.15 while the benchmark is up .35 to 7.76. Still a lot of alpha for a rookie - don't you think?

The three Amigos didn't disappoint - AAPL managed another $1.82 and GOOG got some interest and added $2.44 and MSFT, my favorite, returned another 3 cents to its loyal followers. I looked at the charts and I think AAPL has more room to run, GOOG is as range bound as Mr. Softy, and Mr. Softy is drying up and going down.

Speaking of going down - the INDU ATR broke below 80 today, printing 79.24 at the close. I've said over and over that a break below 80 could mean a couple of soft days ahead so don't be surprised if we see the market dropping a bit starting tomorrow or Friday. Usually it just goes down to the 21 EMA which is about 300 points away right now. That wouldn't be too bad.

The VIX remained neutral and the up/down ratio hit 56% which is also neutral. The NewMoMo is also in neutral but it does show a down slope.


I'm calling tomorrow down just because it has to go down eventually.

The coin is calling tomorrow ... tails - also down.

We both hit it again today so the score is now Marlyn 31 - 29 and 13 and the coin is 35 - 25 and 13.

Wednesday Mid Day

Waiting for the Fed to pronounce - pretty sure it will be "still concerned about inflation" as well it should be. They have the keys to that truck - just stop printing money and inflation goes away.

I'm staying busy though - added to AKS and that is turning out to be a smart move. Added to BGG even though it didn't pull back and that is turning out to be a smart move. Added to AV and that is turning out to be a smart move.

Bought KNOT at an introductory level - it went up right after I made the play - dropping back now so I'm not sure if I will hold it or not. It did hit R3 and I should have dropped out then if I were going to. Oh well we'll see - it still owes me some money - not a lot but enough to make it interesting.

And made a substantial play in MENT for a short-term swing trade. MENT and KNOT were both found on the close = high filter.

Good trading and here's hoping for a Fed Rally this afternoon.

Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Wrapping Tuesday

It was a down day - well for most of the day anyway. The few points off the DOW INDU is nothing to be concerned with - although the bobbleheads on bubblevision will probably try to make it a crisis. Nothing goes down during 401K week. Next week - different story.

You'll have to look it up - but two days after I sell my AKS holdings it pops on a takeover report. It looks valid but you never know. I managed to get a little back (I said I'd buy it over $32) although I missed most of today's move. However, if the report is factual and 40 dollars is the bid then we should see some additional movement over the next couple of weeks.

Still holding AV, GGB, and BGG. I sold about a third of my AV for a small loss and had I held it to close of business it would have been a small profit - but I have no patience for crappy stocks. Even though it went up yesterday it is just bouncing around with no apparent trend in sight. I hate cheap stocks. Speaking of which (cheap stocks) good old CMGI took off for parts unknown (at least not since 1999) today.

BGG is becoming my new darling - I keep looking for a pullback so I can buy more but it won't so I won't. I bought that off a cross over and it has paid super dividends since. The more I look at the cross over stocks the more I like them.


The cross over is on 05/01. This is a simple enough method - just wait for a stock to open below the three primary EMA (4, 8 and 21) and close above them and take a position. Put your stop (physical or mental) below the open. It works on every time frame from minutes to months.

CMGI could have been a cross over play too -


I've published a lot of cross over charts and will put some more up later - a couple of good ones.

The three amigos had a mixed day - AAPL went up a buck and change, GOOG went down change and MSFT made 4 cents for its loyal followers. You have to be so in love with Bill Gates that you'd be willing to have his baby in order to justify your love of this stock. Why did AAPL go up today? Nobody knows including AAPL.

KNOT broke out today - why does that figure - market goes up strong - KNOT drops - market has so so day - KNOT goes up. Not enough for a cross over but enough to keep an eye on.

There is another play which is the non-cross over - this is when a stock just kind of drifts up through its averages but never with a strong up thrust. Watch out for this kind of stock because generally (again a weasel word) they just go sideways from there. They are flattening out and that is never a good situation - at least not for either a swing or day trade.

The model portfolio went up .15 to 17.79% and the benchmark lost .07 to 7.44%.

The INDU ATR is down a bit more to 85.62 - remember 80 is the key - a break of 80 low and we should get a pull back in the averages in the next couple of days.

The VIX remains neutral which is its favorite configuration and the up/down ratio printed a 40% which is also on the edge of neutral and this indicator is also neutral -

But I will say this - the last time it was like this (7 months ago) the market went down for a couple of days before it resumed its every climbing ways.

Bottom line? I don't have a clue - I think we get a good day tomorrow and then a bit of weakness through the rest of the week and maybe through the rest of the month.

The coin says heads ... calling for an up day tomorrow.

Monday was another mixed day tie so the score is now Marlyn 30 - 29 and 13 and the coin is 34 - 25 and 13.

Friday, May 04, 2007

Friday Wraps

TGIF - even us retired guys like weekends.

The market was up again but that was expected – today the 401K money started coming into the market and by law it has to be invested. So by cracky they began buying overpriced crap and made it even more overpriced.

I had an uneventful day. I sold off just about everything and am about to sell off the rest. I’m still holding GGB (through earnings which turned out to be a non-event), BGG, and AV. That was a mistake – I hate cheap stocks and have to take profits on them when they present. If I don’t then I will take a loss – it always happens that way because I haven’t got the patience necessary to wait for two weeks while the stock makes a couple of cents a day. I’m always thinking about the money that I could be making whenever I’m trapped in a crappy trade. Live and learn. Anyway I'll be out of town on Monday so AV has one more day to cause me grief but it is either up Tuesday morning or gone.

AKS was behaving as many stocks do post earnings – they go up for a couple of days, hit a ceiling and then start collapsing back on themselves. Watch your stocks when they go through earnings and see if this doesn’t happen. I’ll probably buy it back again the next time the market goes down a bit. If that ever happens again someone wake me up. I'll buy it back again when it closes over 32.00.


It's still a good company with a lot of room to run.

HST turned out to be a disappointment. It just rolled over and blew away. I didn’t like the action so I put the stop up tight under a pivot point and it managed to hit it. I don’t know if it will recover next week or not. I’ll watch it and if it does I'll take another shot.

The model portfolio went up .47% to 16.59% and the benchmark also went up by .38 to 7.50%. The model is still ahead and will probably stay there although I think it will need some maintenance on the next market drop.

The three Amigos are still not really participating in the rally – the MSFT-buys-YHOO story kind of blew the wind out of GOOG’s sails although why I don’t know – do you think the GOOG ownership is getting antsy? I do. MSFT went back down into its range bound muck and AAPL made 40 cents or so. YHOO was up strong and then faded away. Jimmy Crack Corn Pone had a story about YHOO today but he's so full of crap it's sad.

The INDU ATR fell to 87.98 today and that is goodness. We desperately need a correction, everyone knows it but everyone is afraid to stop buying for fear an already oversold stock will become more oversold and they won’t have it in the corral. And when I say everyone I’m not talking about the handful of retail traders – I’m talking about the big guns out there.

The VIX remains in neutral relative to its 10-period MA and the up/down ratio printed 53.40%. That’s neutral too. The NewMoMo remains orbiting 0 and that is also a neutral position.


For Monday I’m looking at another dry day like today – up but not by much.

The coin says tails – calling for a down day on Monday.

We both got another one right and the score is now Marlyn 30 - 29 and 12 and the coin is 34 - 25 and 12.

I'll be back over the weekend with some more posts regarding BOB - I'll show you a couple of charts.

Thursday, May 03, 2007

Wrapping Thursday

I don't know where all the liquidity is coming from - it's a day or two too early for the 401K money which usually takes 3 days from the 1st of the month to make the transition (even in the digital age). So I haven't got a clue. Normally I would expect a couple of breather days and then a few boom days but this is somewhat ridiculous. Oh well, whatever - I'm taking advantage of it as you should be and let the devil take the hindmost. Once again - take what the market gives you and don't fight the tape neither up nor down.

I'm still holding a position in AKS, BGG, and GBB. I'm also holding HST and AV. The only one that was a disappointment today was HST but I expect that one to get back on track during the next week or so. Once the 401K money starts coming into the market the funds will start buying it back as it is one of the beloved stocks. How do I know that? - Simple - I just look at how much the 'toot's held in the last quarter and that was 98.8% of the float - that means that they sold a ton of it off when the earnings announcement came out several days ago and now they are in the process of buying it back again. That's how the game is played - supply and demand - good stocks are always in demand and the supply is always small.

The model portfolio went up .73% to 16.04% and the benchmark beat it for the first time ever by going up .81% to 7.09% - go benchmark - The model portfolio still has a bunch of alpha.

The three amigos were all over the map - GOOG made 7+ bucks today and MSFT made another 30 cents or so. Truth be known - if I could bank on MSFT making 30 cents a day from now on I would own a lot of MSFT. AAPL returned all of one penny to its loyal followers - yes - that's one cent - 100 shares gets you to the dollar menu at Mickey D's you lucky dog you. They are still not participating with all of the spirit that I would expect in any kind of stock market rally so I say the rally is soft.

The VIX is still in neutral but the up/down ratio dropped to 53.98% which it can do even in an up market - in other words a lot of stocks went down today even in the face of rising indices. The INDU ATR printed 98.17 and that is down a bit from yesterday but the rally will continue on that good news.

This guy remains split -


but leaning towards an up day. And even though I haven't got a snowball's chance in hell of calling tomorrow correctly - I'm still going with an up day. That's right - 401K money comes in and the market goes up.

The coin says ... heads - also calling for an up day.

Well we both missed again so the score is now Marlyn 29 - 29 and 12 and the coin is 33 - 25 and 12.

Two Hours For Fun and Profit

If you really want to see what your planned purchase or sale is doing bring up a 20-day view of the 2-hour charts. I've written about these before but I have a couple of new readers and they may not appreciate the concept of using multiple time scales to inform trading. (Now before anyone writes in to correct me - I know that there aren't 4 2-hour periods in a trading day - there are 3 2-hour periods and 1 30-minute period - these are just called the "2-hour charts").

Let's take a look at a 2-hour chart.


As you can see you can use the same technical analysis tools on the 2-hour charts that you use with any other time frame. The difference being you cross day boundaries when using 2-hour charts.

The prevalent formation on the 2-hour charts is the cross over but you will find a BOB every now and then. I've circled the two cross overs on this one and put a rectangle around the BOB.

Here's another 2-hour chart.


Again we find both the cross over and the BOB.

And one more - this one is HST and it contains a number of strange patterns -


But when we look at this on a color-coded chart such as the ones I use in QuoteTracker you can see that it is actually an RSI(2) < 2 and I use those to inform me when to add to my holdings or to day trade using my holdings.


The long purple bar is how I have the chart tell me about the RSI activity.

You can also see on this chart how the 2-hour charts support pivot points as well.

I currently own all of these stocks. That doesn't mean that I will own them later today or even five minutes from now - but right now I do own them.

Thursday Pre-Market

The Yahoo Finance site is calling for a "soft" day and up until a little while ago I might have agreed. But now the futures are up and so is Europe so I don't know. I think it might be a quiet day.

The trouble with a day like yesterday is that it always throws off a ton of good looking prospects.

I looked at a couple of charts and these might be some to put on a watch list and if you see any reason to buy them in the next day or so they might turn out to be good swing trades -

NUAN (reports on 5/8)
SIRF (reported Apr 19th guided lower)
HST (reported in Apr - market overreacted)
TZIX (reported on 4/30 guided lower might be ready to recover)
KBR (reports on the 4th - a cross over candidate)

Then I think I'm going to take a swing trade in AV - looking for a bit of a pull back today to start the position and I'm also hoping for a pull back in BGG so I can add to the position.

Good trading all.

Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Wrapping Wednesday

Well I guess that's what happened - up through R2 and drift sideways to the close.

AKS did well today. I'm still not sure whether I'm going to hold GGB through earnings or not. At least it went up today which is different from the last couple of days. I hate dumping stocks that are first - going up into earnings and second - in a sector where more companies are doing well than not. I think US Steel has everyone spooked because they guided lower for the second quarter. I know it has me spooked.

The BGG trade is working well - it's up off the buy price significantly. I sold AV too soon but I made 30 cents each on a boat load of shares and that isn't too shabby - could have made another 12 - 15 cents had I held it but why be greedy. It will still be there tomorrow. (I also can't help but notice that I'm holding one stock named GGB and one stock named BGG - a coincidence - I hope so).

I found AV using a new filter I'm working on that looks for stocks between 12 and 18 with an average volume over 90 days greater than 500K shares and the close is greater than the close 5 days ago. There are a couple of other points but that is the basis of the filter the rest are just to shake out the pretenders. For a day trade filter what more could you want - it puts out a ton of stocks but I only watch the first 10 by yesterday's volume and if I get some action - so be it. The top three picks this morning were BSX, SYMC and AV. Both BSX and SYMC had cross over formations but AV was a return to 4 - and it was first to set-up. You're welcome to try this yourselves if you want to do some day trading on stocks that seem to want to go up.

Why 12 to 18? Because I'm looking at lower volatility (average true range) for day trading. I'm tired of the momo monkeys - I want to make my money in a more leisurely manner.

The model portfolio went up 2.78% today to 15.20% and I'm pretty sure your mutual fund didn't do as well. The benchmark went up .87 to 6.52%.

The three amigos sent out mixed signals today. AAPL did well and went back over 100 but - that was only .92% - the model portfolio had 10 out of 12 stocks go up over 1.45% today. Doesn't seem right that such a wildly successful company does so poorly. MSFT, of course, remains range bound and I'm still not sure why people are in this stock - maybe it's the dividend - yeah - that's it - the dividend - so remind me again why you are still holding GOOG? Still waiting for the short squeeze - notice that Jimmy Crack Corn Pone has removed it from his radar?

Speaking of momo - NewMoMo made a turn back up today and I don't particularly like that. If we don't get some quality time lower we are just going to struggle to go higher.


The INDU ATR went up again to 102.50 and that means - all together now - the rally will continue. Now I know it can't go up every single day but the fact is it won't or shouldn't go down strong until the ATR drops below 80. At least that's been the way it has worked for a number of years now.

The VIX is back to neutral but the up/down ratio is at 70% and that might mean a little less exuberance tomorrow and maybe even into Friday.

I've got to go with the up/down ratio and that suggests that we probably have an off day tomorrow. That's OK - we need a little rain every once in awhile - helps the garden grow.

Coin also sees a down day tomorrow --- flipped a tail.


The coin and I hit it again so the score is now Marlyn 29 - 28 and 12 and the coin is 33 - 24 and 12.

Wednesday Morning

Don't like the market - wait a day. Today will probably be a reverse of yesterday - boom up in the morning - hit the ceiling - drift into the close.

I added to AKS and started a new position at the open (swing trade) in BGG off a cross over filter. So far I am pretty pleased. I also put a day trade in on AV (a cheap stock). I am not pleased with that one but at least it is going in the right direction.

I'd like to see the Q's break through R1 (where they are right now) and go up to R2. It could happen even with all of the indicators showing neutral. Today is one of the buying days on the week so maybe we will have a better day than I expect.

Good trading all.