Wednesday, May 09, 2007

Wednesday Wraps

I had a good day and I hope you did too. Kind of hard not to the way the market is flowing. The Fed announcement caused a little froth not much more than that. I was watching the Forex screens and they told me all I needed to know quickly. I.E. - the market was going to resume its climb.

I added to AKS on a pullback just before the Fed announcement. Apparently the traders liked what they heard and AKS went up again. I added to BGG twice today although I'm sure I'm just being a bit irrational but I like the stock, I like the way it goes up most of the time, and I like making money. I'm still holding KNOT but didn't add to it although if it pulls back a bit tomorrow I may then. Still holding GGB and I should have added to it at least at 10 A.M. today but I didn't - my lost opportunity. Can anyone tell me why I should have added at 10?

Everyone who said - "Cross Over!" wins. However, a careful examination of the chart suggests that the Return to 4 at 11:00 was also a good opportunity to add. It pays to watch your swing trades and to take advantage of the opportunities they provide.

I sold out my AV shares including the part I bought this morning. Made a very nice profit on the transaction - about 5% in 5 days. Is it done? I don't know but I know I am for the time being. Will I play it again? Sure it may set up nice once more - right now it appears to be a bit oversold - the RSI(2) is > 95.

If you recall AV was purchased off a silly filter that I call 12 to 18 and rising - which describes it perfectly. I was looking for some cheap stocks that might have had a bit of interest in them. AV apparently has. If I get a pullback I might get back in. Again, let's try to guess why I bought more AV this morning.

Can't fool you guys can I? How hard is this? And yes, these are the 30-minute charts - it's a good idea on Fed day to use longer term charts because the market generally is moving slowly.

I sold out the MENT shares - I should have held them for another 15 minutes and I would have made a buck or two but as it was I lost $3 including R/T commission.

How quickly the mighty fall. Here is poor DNDN - a stock I made some money on a couple of weeks ago - down 64% today because the FDA wants some more information regarding their prostate cancer drug. Why the market sees that as a major negative is beyond me but it does and now DNDN is just another bio-crappa in the crapper.

The best part - one of the anal-holes covering the stock, upon seeing it drop 64% on the open, changed his rating from "Buy" to "Hold". Isn't that amazing? Like what else are you going to do with this piece of crap now? Do you think anyone who is responsible for any kind of real money actually pays any attention to those morons? No, they don't and neither should you. Analysts still exist for one reason only - to give the Broker help in fleecing the retail trade. And you can quote me. Thank God for the Internet - the only reason I talk to my brokerage is to give 'em hell when the interface fails.

The model portfolio put another 2% on today and is printing 20.15 while the benchmark is up .35 to 7.76. Still a lot of alpha for a rookie - don't you think?

The three Amigos didn't disappoint - AAPL managed another $1.82 and GOOG got some interest and added $2.44 and MSFT, my favorite, returned another 3 cents to its loyal followers. I looked at the charts and I think AAPL has more room to run, GOOG is as range bound as Mr. Softy, and Mr. Softy is drying up and going down.

Speaking of going down - the INDU ATR broke below 80 today, printing 79.24 at the close. I've said over and over that a break below 80 could mean a couple of soft days ahead so don't be surprised if we see the market dropping a bit starting tomorrow or Friday. Usually it just goes down to the 21 EMA which is about 300 points away right now. That wouldn't be too bad.

The VIX remained neutral and the up/down ratio hit 56% which is also neutral. The NewMoMo is also in neutral but it does show a down slope.

I'm calling tomorrow down just because it has to go down eventually.

The coin is calling tomorrow ... tails - also down.

We both hit it again today so the score is now Marlyn 31 - 29 and 13 and the coin is 35 - 25 and 13.


Anonymous said...

I was also in GGB on the cross-over, but was stopped out @ 20.75 on the doji at 2pm which also happened to be on a pivot resistance level. How do you set your stops in this case to lock in your profits, but still allow for some price fluctuation?

Much appreciative of the daily education.

Bullish Jim said...

Great summary, MT. I hope you're right about MSFT as I bought some puts today. Should be interesting...

Anonymous said...

Hi Marlyn-
Thank you so much for your blog. I've read the entire thing in the last few days. Question regarding charting software- are you using stockcharts, prophet and quote tracker - each for different kinds of charting?


Marlyn Trades said...

Anom 1 - first, great trade - second, there is no reason to be upset about that stop out - you made some money and you didn't let greed get the best of you. Fed day is a tough trading day because the market spends a lot of time marking time - up - sideways - up/down.

I generally use a mental stop on stocks that I know well and GGB is one of them. I know that it is a well-regarded steel stock - steel is going in one direction - up(generally) and the stock will give me another opportunity tomorrow and if not tomorrow then the next day. Consequently I might not have been stopped out but, as in the case with MENT, I might not have made any money either. It is a matter of probabilities.

Marlyn Trades said...

Jim - MSFT can't seem to get out of its own way so there is only one way left. If my theory on INDU ATR < 80 holds it should drop in the next couple of days. Don't be greedy this time.

Marlyn Trades said...

Anon 2 - Wow! That's a lot of posts.

I use stockcharts because I like the way they present on the screen. They only provide daily or longer time frames and I only use the free version.

Years ago when I was a once in awhile trader I would bookmark dozens of sets of candleglance charts (10 per page) and then once a week go through them looking for potential trades. I got used to it and still do it today - I'm not kidding - it is a great exercise for the mind.

Prophet is my bread and butter site for watch lists, portfolios, and real-time intra-day data. I'm not thrilled with the interface but I've gotten used to it.

Quote Tracker uses the prophet real-time feed to support intra-day charts and I use QT to watch and track day trades. I like QT because I can program my filters right into the chart code and have the charts alert me when certain conditions appear using various methods - mostly visual. But most important - QT provides pivot points which I use daily and prophet, for whatever reason, doesn't provide them at least not at my subscription level.

Welcome to the neighborhood - we're pretty casual around here and if you have an idea, comment, or question by all means fire away.

Also - it would be nice for all anonymous readers to put some kind of handle at the end of the post. It's handy to have a name or nickname.

Anonymous said...

Hi Marlyn-
Thanks for the response about the charting software, etc. Re programming filters in Quote Tracker- the formulas you give in this blog are for StockFetcher correct? If so- how do you program them in to QT?

Marlyn Trades said...

The language is a little different but it's not impossible to make the conversion. If someone wants a specific method I'll post in the BLog.

Anonymous said...

OK- can you post the how to for programing BOB and the crossover? It seems like those 2 might be a good place for me to start? sjm


Time to wrap things up.