Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Rule 1 - Nobody Knows Nothing

Including me. If I were King I would make it a law that every single person who writes about the stock market wrote Rule 1 as the first line of every article they ever wrote. Of course, if they did, soon no one would read them and then the world would be a much much much much MUCH better place.

Yesterday, in the Wrap, I pointed out how Carl Icahn was dumb to sell off his holdings in GM. Now if Carl Icahn who held a major stake in GM doesn't know sh*t from shinola about investing what makes the dimbulbs on Thestreet.com think they know anything about investing? Riddle me that, sweetpea.

This morning I read in Yahoo about an article in thestreet.com that homebuilders are the most overvalued sector. I quote: "Despite Toll Brothers being up for the year, investors should remove holdings on strength." This is written by some guy who is probably a legend in his own mind.

As a result of that article the 10 or 20 actual subscribers to that pile of steaming dogblend pretending to be a market analysis magazine are selling off their homebuilder stocks as quickly as they can this morning. Every other one of my holdings is mean and green except DHI.

Why do so called stock market analysts believe that they have some magical insight into the market? By the time any one of these semi-illiterate morons manages to actually scribble a column about anything it instantly becomes the contrarian tell of all time.

I avoid the macro - the day to day is hard enough. Last night I said the market would be down today. I awaken this morning and whoop-de-do and tickle my fanny with a feather the futures are up, the pre-market is booming and I just don't get it. I look over on Yahoo and see this one reported down, that one reported down, the other one reported down - but everything is up.

Even FNF who reported absolutely awful earnings spiked almost a dollar at the open. It is coming back now and if it holds this position and continues to rise I'll buy it again. I guess the readers of thestreet.com are not smart enough to understand that if "homebuilders" are overvalued then the folks who provide mortgage insurance are probably overvalued as well.

Update 11:17 A.M. EST - sanity prevails and the entire market collapses under the weight of too much buying. If we can just get it down for a couple of days in a row then everything will be good goint into next week. But every dip will be bought so fearful are the fund managers that they might be left behind in a rally. So I don't expect this to hold even through this afternoon.

Update 3:00 P.M. EST - insanity thy name is fund managers - the Dow is greening up nicely as is the SPX and the Compq, the Q's have almost returned to profitability, life is good. Not only that but right now there are more stocks that went up today than yesterday.

More in the Wrap this evening.


Bullish Jim said...

The truth is we're all guessing. That's what is so dangerous about a guy like Cramer. He makes a guess and 10,000 people immediately put their hard earned money on it...

Habben said...

At the moment, it looks like you should spit out that crow...

I'm enjoying your blog, BTW.

Marlyn Trades said...

Welcome to the madness Habben - and yes at this moment it looks like I might have called this one correctly. The market has to go down every now and then. I don't know if it will be a big drop or a small one - but a drop is needed to take the pressure off.

Habben said...

If you have access to EURUSD (forex) data, there are some nice tweezer examples, if I understand tweezers correctly. The euro/dollar has been a trading range for about 3 weeks.

John D said...

you criticize the other dude..

just by chance i read your blog

it turns out the people who sold GM did good, as well as people who got rid of Housing companies..

nobody know nothing..