Monday, February 19, 2007

Growth or Value?

That is like asking - Lady or the Tiger? In actuality it is very much the same because either way you're ...

You fill in the blank - But when it comes to the stock market it makes a small difference in the up market and a large difference in the down market. Ideally you would be out of stocks in the down market or short the index or something such as that.

But since last September the place to be was in the stock market and the place to be buying stocks was in the small cap index and the place to be in there was in growth stocks (IWO). The difference between the two cohorts is growth +13.7% and value +12.2% - and that should be sufficient enough difference to make a difference.

But what do we have going on now? Here is the weekly chart in Marlyn's Curve which is always the best way to watch for secular changes in the market.

It appears to me that we have both growth and value cohorts rolling over. That means that the returns are becoming tighter which always indicates that a reversal is upon us. I think given this roll over that it is time to switch to watching daily charts again and at the first sign of trouble - bailing.

To which we then answer - neither thank you.


Richard said...

Hi Marlyn, I have been visiting your site daily for a while and its just great. I really like your postings, curve charts, and Newmomo. Please keep it up I need all the good help I can find. Regards Richard.


I will take value over growh anytime.