Wednesday, February 14, 2007

Wednesday's Wrap

Wrap me up - after I found out that NTRI was reporting after hours it took every bit of my strength to not buy it to the extent of my trading account at the close - I mean who wouldn't want a 12% loss on their book three days in a row? Of course NTRI will go up at least 10% tomorrow morning. That you can bank on. (Update - up 16% after hours).

Flat - in cash - no stocks in my trading account - no holdings - nada - I'm clear. As I mentioned I sold everything including CRI before noon. I reasoned for CRI that it wasn't going to recover the losses ever and it might even go down some more since that was its general direction before I took it anyway. Right now I'd rather have the cash for trading rather than being carried as a bump in the book.

Turns out I should have held NEW a bit longer but the way I was feeling at that moment I needed a winner and that was it and I'm happy with what I got out of it. I took KNOT on a blow-off bottom but set my stop way too close and was stopped out - I didn't have my heart or mind in the trade - maybe tomorrow. I think KNOT is going to get back to where it was - it, afterall, is selling dreams and not real stuff like baby wear. Dreams are a lot easier to value. (If you detect the slightest hint of sarcasm here it's probably because there is a little in the air at the moment).

But when you get bucked off the bull you pick yourself up, make sure nothing is broken, and then you either get back on the bull or you go home and hide under the bed - I don't hide. But I did make some changes and you won't see me holding any stocks in my trading account any longer than 5 hours - if that.

Nuff about my woes - I published a new method to find day trade candidates this morning using a filter that would, if completed, find full scale blow-off bottoms. The filter found 15 matches and of the 15 - four went down today and 11 went up. Needless to say today was a good day for "going up" so I won't say that will be the norm - but I will keep track of this in the wrap and we'll see how well it does.

My three favorites were ETFC, SAY, and TTM - but because this was the first time I've tried this I just watched today. I'm going to continue using this method for awhile and see what develops.

Another interesting detail of the day is that small caps went up and then retreated back to the open - or as I say - they round-tripped. I'm not sure what that portends. Is this the age of the large caps? I doubt it - it might be as simple as the small caps are all overbought. And if you look at the IWM, IWN, and IWO charts together with the stochasticRSI(2) you see the incredible variance of the IWM (the index) and IWO (growth component) both being at 1.000 and the IWN being at 0.000! Apparently value was sold off today hard and that was enough to bring the overall index down. So that leaves the only question as why is value being sold off this year? I have no clue.

GOOG, MSFT and AAPL all went up today as did the semi's. Don't start cheering because I think that is just a one day story.

Another stock that took an amazing haircut today was GIFI. Just last week Trading Goddess was talking about that stock as if it had a real chance post earnings. I didn't think much of the stock - it appeared to me to be ready to come down anyway - but apparently the company has postponed its earnings announcement and that was enough for an 11% haircut. See what I mean about the market being so fearful? I don't think the economy is in that good shape - at least not as good as some of our leaders would have us believe. Gold keeps going up and stocks keep exploding. Although it is possible that gold is starting to peak. I think Bernake scared gold traders today when he started talking about inflation being under control - the worst thing that can happen to the gold bugs is an interest rate cut. If stocks keep blowing up I think that is coming - I'm surprised it hasn't happened already. Jimmy Crack Corn Pone also thinks one is due too.

CRVL continued its droppage today. See what happens when the day traders and scalpers abandon you - absolute chaos.

I think GM is done for awhile - third gap up yesterday and a DOJI today.

Now for the most amazing piece of the puzzle - the up/down ratio actually went down today to 55% from 59% and there were about 300 fewer stocks going up today than went up yesterday. That suggests that today's exuberance was indeed irrational. Now despite that the NEWMOMO method is suggesting we are already due for a correction.

As I've pointed out - this is a relatively new method that I'm using and I really don't know what to expect from it but the icing on the cake is the fact that the ATR(10) for the INDU is at 78.99 which is less than 80. So I'm forecasting a down day tomorrow.

The coin says --- tails - also a down day - I have to start letting the coin go first - I think it is playing me.

We both got it right again so the score is Marlyn 12 - 8 and 4 and the coin is 9 - 11 and 4.

Happy trails to you.


Bullish Jim said...

I look forward to your wrap up every day and you never disappoint.

When I missed that KNOT BOB I just knew you hit it. Sorry it wasn't a big winner.

Good trading tomorrow...

Cucca said...

Good analysis Marlyn, excellent in fact, I would only add that Uncle Ben said "Core" inflation may go down in the next two years, like Barry at the Big Picture says, thats like inflation EX inflation.

Good Luck.

TradingGoddess said...

Happy Valentine's Day!