Want to play earnings roulette? Avis budget rental car (CAR) reports earnings on the 21st. The current historical volatility is 13% and the current implied volatility is 31% which suggests a move is coming but, of course, we don't know up or down. I also don't know how to convert implied volatility into a dollar value but it could be a buck or so.
I also don't know how to value car rental companies - I know Avis "tries harder" but I'm not sure what they try harder to do. I do know one thing - they are number one with a bullet on my quick estimate of efficiency so they are doing something right. About 77% of their float is held by institutions and there have been some sales but the insider activity is almost non-existent with the only transaction in the last 12 months being a 3000 share purchase.
Here is the chart -
And it is a good looker too.
But this is one for folks who want to game earnings - I believe that a stock rising into earnings is usually a good stock to buy and if you get a spike on earnings day - that's probably a good time to sell.
I won't be playing CAR - I just drive 'em.
1 comment:
Excellent post
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