Thursday, February 15, 2007

Wraps Thursday

A good day. No 12% haircuts for me today. As I said yesterday - I don't hide - but I did make a change or two today and I recommend this to anyone who gets hit hard a couple days in a row. Drop back on the weight - only take half or quarter loads. Get the feel back. It was probably just bad luck - but ego and arrogance play a large part in what we do and if you go out swinging for the fences after a bad beat or two you are liable to get beat some more. Remember the market can dish it out a lot longer than you can take it.

So that's what I did today - I throttled back and here's how I did. PLXS +4 cents for a breakeven plus a happy meal - my bride is pleased - we eat tonight (just kidding). LQDT +1.10 - probably could have had more but was in late and out early (another part of the recovery process - a good profit - is a good profit - is a good profit). PDLI +30 cents. And KNOT +31 cents. I bought KNOT and then doubled up after it bounced off the EMA 21 on the 30-minute charts. I was expecting it to do that and put some nice coin in the register because I anticipated a recovery. All told $1.65 and I feel a lot better. And, of course, I'm flat in my account - just cash going into Friday. I was done by noon and spent some quality time with my bride. And that's how it has to be for now.

I had 9 candidates with the "day trading with BOB" filter today. 4 went down and 5 went up. One gapped up too far to be of any use and of the other four I took PDLI and PLXS. PDLI proved to be the best of the lot. Of the 15 I had yesterday 12 are now up and only 3 are down. I think this is going to be a good filter - not automatic - but a little common sense can go a long way in this business. And once we get out of earnings season it should be a good filter for picking swing trades. It is interesting how the smallest things can sometimes mean so much.

I ignored CRI even though I saw right away that it was going to gain back some of yesterday's lost blood. Sometimes I just don't want to be bothered with the garbage. It's probably foolish of me because all of the bad that could happen has happened but once burned twice shy. Maybe tomorrow.

I read this morning that Cramer was all over NTRI for low balling their announcement on January 31st then coming out with a boomer last night. He said that he's through with this bunch. That made a big impact on his legion of fan (sports stars have legions of fans - Cramer just has legion) and I see that NTRI is up 14%.

The three Amigos - MSFT, GOOG, and AAPL didn't get the message, two went down a bit and Mr. Softy made about 6 cents for his loyal supportors. Let's see 100 shares x 6 cents = happy meal? Nope. I'm not really sure what that sums up to except something negative going forward. Probably has something to do with options expiration tomorrow. BIDU took the 12% haircut today.

I notice that bubblevision is blaming Bernake today for the market not continuing the boom. He was the hero yesterday and the goat today and pretty much said the same thing. The media types always have to have something to blame it on. They just can't say its a matter of supply and demand. If they did they'd soon realize that they were an oversupply to very little demand.

I looked at the charts every once in awhile this afternoon and about the only thing I could say that could even come close to a characterization is "driftage" - the market is in "driftage". No point, no purpose, no real destination, just a large floating cloud of crap.

Of course I missed on my forecast but as I said the NewMoMo method is relatively new and I do know from my testing that it doesn't have a 1.0 correlation - just close. The ATR indicator is also "just close" and most of the time several days go by between its dipping below 80 and the INDU taking a fall. I showed that on the figure last week. So probably tomorrow.

Speaking of the NewMoMO indicator here it is for today's edition of As the Wrap Turns -

The up/down ratio is printing 48% so it's neutral again. The VIX is neutral and the ATR indicator is 77.78. So two in neutral, two showing down - I'm going with down - I don't think the market can stand another up day this week.

The magic coin says ... heads - a bull market again - well at least we differ.

Once again we both missed so the score is Marlyn 12 - 9 and 4 and the coin is 9 - 12 and 4. Still just a little better than luck.

1 comment:


Nice wrapup to things.