Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Tuesday Wraps

As posted earlier, I bought TLB and if it sets up again tomorrow I'll double up. I'm holding it up to earnings on March 7th or until I get tired of it - whichever comes first.

I also had CORS and CRI as day trades and I almost kept CRI but then I read that I wasn't wrong about the earnings - they post tomorrow. What they did last week was give a little preview so that the market wouldn't be shocked tomorrow when they officially announce. What do I think is going to happen? Why should I care - I got my quarter out of them today. CORS too was looking good for awhile but I had bought that deliberately as a day trade off my "Day Trading with BOB" filter and I got 21 cents out of it after expenses. That filter is still proving to be a real winner when it comes to picking stocks for short term gains. It might also be good for long term gains but I don't hold them long enough to know.

I also took a position in SOFO towards the end of the day - this will be another swing trade. After watching it all day I decided I should probably just commit. I'm only going for a half a buck or three days on this one though so whichever occurs first - it's gone.

Both CAR and RDEN finished the day up and either one would have been a good counter play for a day trade once the market turned around.

I didn't expect that - in fact I was figuring on a dull, down day but for some reason or other the market turned at 10:15 or so. I'm pretty sure it wasn't Wal-mart's blowing the top off the estimate (imagine that) that caused the turn around since that was already known at market open.

Of course I really don't care why the media thinks it went up - I'm just certain that it is still overbought, the range is narrower still, and eventually we are going to have to have a little blow-off to get the pressure out of the prices. Not a crash - I never predict a crash - just a 100 point or so drop in the Dow, a couple of dozen in the NASDAQ and 10 or 12 in the SPX. That would be more than enough.

GOOG went up a couple of points, MSFT went up a couple of cents and AAPL is up a buck and a little. AAPL is still trading in that narrow range but keep a close eye on it - today could have been a breakout signal. If it opens higher and goes up tomorrow there is a possibility that it will put a couple of bucks in the pot before it is through. That'll make the AAPL fans happy.

BARE, the cosmetic company I wrote about on the weekend, the one with the massive secondary coming out - dropped to 32.88 and then recovered most of that - finishing only 85 cents down from the close Friday. Just can't keep a good company down - it will probably go to the moon tomorrow. And just because it has dropped 9 of its last 10 days doesn't mean anything other than it is just an excellent company taking a little nap. Of note - its turn-around this morning was a classic blow-off bottom so that isn't all bad. Just in case you have forgotten what that looks like - here it is again.

All together now, one more time - Weee are being FOOOOLED by RANNNNDOMMMMNESSSSS! Alright - that should satisfy the fundamental purists in the audience (although I doubt I have any of those hanging around).

I spent a lot of time today working with QuoteTracker - I'm not ready yet to report my findings. Maybe tomorrow. For now let's just say I'm of mixed feelings. The interface could be a little less cumbersome and the help panels a little more helpful - but I'm new at it and I always give a piece of software a good, rigorous test before I write the report.

For tomorrow I'd say I-dunno except I'm in a contest with that stupid magic coin - so I'm saying a down day is coming. The up/down ratio is neutral, about 52%, the VIX is neutral, and all four major indices as represented by their respective ETFs printed black/red candles in the last hour of trading, as did GS. Normally that would mean that an up day is coming but the INDU ATR is still below 80 and this indicator remains in the sell zone (.005 and above).

Sooner or later we have to have a down day - it is impossible for the market to keep going up without a breather. The fact that the Q's round tripped and closed red today suggests that there is a need for a nap. Now you do understand that the only thing that happens for me on a down day is that I get to do things with my Bride such as take day trips to museums and the like which is a good thing for a retired person to do. She puts up with my sitting here at this box day in and day out without complaint and she needs a break every now and then too.

The magic coin, having called today almost completely correct - says for tomorrow ... heads - bull is coming again.

The score now sits at Marlyn 13 - 10 and 4 and the coin is 10 - 13 and 4.

I hope you all are having as much fun as I am. And I hope you all are making money too.


Anonymous said...

Bongiorno. Hope you and your bride are doing well. Just wanted to let you know that I use Quotetracker and I "paint" my BOBS. I wanted to email you today's 30 minute chart of NYNY, but I wasn't able to locate your address. Maybe you don't have one cuz you don't want to hear from the all the nut-jobs out there (LOL!). Anyhow---the set-up was perfect!

Have a good night.


Marlyn Trades said...

Thank you Philip - that was one of the first things I learned - how to paint the BOB.

Eddie said...

I've enjoyed this site quite a bit, and have been using the BOB filter to help me better intuit chart patterns. What is meant by "painting" the BOB?

Marlyn Trades said...

On Quote Tracker you can program the software to paint the candles associated with the BOB. I've also used the shape printer to print a special shape under the set-up candle (number 2 of the sequence) - when I see the shape on the chart I start watching closely.


Nothing like a nice wrapup.