Sunday, February 25, 2007

Williams %R

There are many ways to skin the technical analysis cat and two of them are the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Williams %R.

First the RSI. TAZ Trader reports on a six rule method from Trading Markets that is an "improved RSI(2)" method. Because I am always interested in any method that can be programmed into my modeler I adapted their method to my own. Their method exclusively followed the SPX or its derivatives while mine selected individual stocks. Now that isn't necessarily the same but for all practical purposes I don't buy the market so if it doesn't work on individual stocks I don't want to fool with it.

TAZ Trader then goes on to talk about his method that uses Williams %R. Apparently he prefers a three period Williams %R to the RSI(2).

So I wrote a couple of filters and here are my results -

The Trading Markets method output a 65% win ratio with a 105% ROI - this isn't bad.
The Williams %R(3) method output a 62% win ratio with a 150% ROI - this is just fine.
The RSI(2) method output a 72% win ratio with 162% ROI - that is excellent.

Here is the RSI(2) method -

show stocks where close is between 15 and 35
and average volume(90) < 500000
and rsi(2) < 5
and volume 1 day ago > volume 2 days ago
and volume > volume 1 day ago

Now I tried including a volume statement in both the Williams and the Trading Markets methods (although it isn't called for) and it only lessened their efficiency and effectiveness.

But here is an interesting aside - even though these are supposed to be extremely short term filters - if you hold the stocks you select using them you will hit some home runs in the next 20 days. The Williams %R filter had a whopping 6.58% net change over 20 days and the RSI(2) turned in a respectable 4.31. The Trading Markets method was a more pedestrian 2.5 not bad but nothing to get excited about.

I'm going to stay with the RSI(2) < 5 method as it seems to be better on the individual stock basis. But there is nothing wrong with using either the Williams %R or the Trading Markets methods if that's what you want to do.

103 comments:

Red Hue said...

Marlyn,

There is other research on Trading Markets indicating best time to buy stocks is from about the 23 of month to the 1st of next month...I wonder how this RSi method would work if only applied during that time??

Marlyn Trades said...

Yes they are probably correct on that since the lowest day of the month generally occurs in the last two weeks of the month.

One of the best ways to use RSI is when the market (as represented by SPX or one of its derivatives) is < 5 then if you buy a stock at RSI(2) < 5 at that time you get to ride the entire market up. It is always better to be riding with the market than trying to go against the flow.

Dave, over on Shark Trader keeps a loose eye on it so I didn't bother with it. I've used to see it posted daily in a post on Seeking Alpha but that guy hasn't been up for awhile so I don't know what happened to him.

I wouldn't try to build a system around day/week of the month - while in a macro sense and on paper it might work it would be hard to do in real-world - too many moving parts.

Try combining your RSI with one for the market at large - I think that might work well.

ch90 said...

impressive data and I was wondering what would be your entry and exit points using the RSI(2) method?

QUALITY STOCKS UNDER 5 DOLLARS said...

Now thats news to me.

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