Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Wrapping Wednesday

Been gone so long I've almost forgotten how. As a test of my resolve and discipline during my vacation I went one full week without logging on to the internet. It is amazing how little I missed in that time. The political situation remains the same, the market remains the same, Jimmy Crack Corn Pone stays as crazy as ever and the only thing that has changed is me - I'm a week older and a bit smarter for the experience. I'm going to try it about once a quarter from now on. Can't hurt - might even help.

Oh well - just because we're retired doesn't mean we can slack off. Let's have a wrap -

I expected the markets to be down today and they were split but that isn't anything new anymore. After all there was a new record in the wind. Still you can't have the Dow components up and the tech components down - it just doesn't make sense. I'm not sure how INTC actually made money this quarter while fighting with AMD for market share and cutting share prices while the PC market that is supposedly doing so well is such absolute toast that the retailers are practically giving away desk tops as premiums to get you to come into their stores. Can you say "Cook(ed) Book(s)"?

I sold off GRA this morning because I didn't like the way it was progressing, to wit it lost a quarter in the week I was gone. The rest of the market went the other way and so I'm taking the quarter loss as a sign of concern regarding earnings which are coming up on the 24th. I also sold off OI based on its 20 cent loss in the past week and that too might be concern over earnings coming next week. At any rate I'm taking no chances this particular season. My current positions include KNOT, AKS, and GGB. I increased KNOT this morning off the S2 - it went up to pivot and then dropped back to S1 were it sat most of the day. And I added to AKS also - that might have been a mistake because it too is coming up on earnings and while GGB went up AKS fell back. I'll watch another day or so and then, if it keeps dropping I'll dump out on Friday until after earnings next week. No day trading today - I need a little time to get back my rhythm.

I see the Q's took a dump in the last half hour as did SPY and DIA. That's generally a concessionary movement and it suggests (only "suggests") a down day coming tomorrow.

The three amigos - GOOG, MSFT, and AAPL continued their winsome ways - these are the three most beloved stocks in the entire world because they are so profitable. MSFT had 4 days of gains and made all of 50 cents for its true believers while it continues to meander in the range we identifed about 9 months ago. GOOG is in a rising formation and will probably hit 513 any day now and after that --- boom!--- right to 520 having touched off the world's longest awaited short squeeze. And, as was predicted here first - APPL hit 90 before it hit 100. I wouldn't load up just yet there's more bad news ahead. The only reason a stock declines into earnings is fear. If AAPL puts out a bad number next week it might lose 15% before the first 5 minutes of the trading day.

The cult of MVIS had a good week but then came yesterday and the cathedral of dead money -

so cult fans - I guess it's time to sell and wait for the next pull back.

My model portfolio is printing 13.70% which is OK but a bit disappointing and another sign of future declines (rate of change is dropping). The benchmark is at 4.89%.

The VIX pulled back into the neutral zone but what I find interesting is that the INDU ATR is now approaching 80.

I gave you a two-month view on this one so you could admire my brilliance in ATR reading. I told you that when the ATR rolled over on the INDU we would have a sustained market rise. Well that happened - and, as I've mentioned before - once the ATR drops below 80 it is a danger signal and usually precedes a multi-day correction. It is currently at 82.93. So keep an eye on it.

This guy still indicates market weakness coming -

The up/down ratio says 40% and that means only one thing - an up day tomorrow regardless of what the other indicators are saying.

The coin says ... tails - down day coming.

Going back to last Monday's forecast when the coin won the score stands at Marlyn 24 - 25 and 10 and the coin is 27 - 22 and 10. I always say that I'd rather be lucky than good.

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