Friday, April 20, 2007

Friday Wrappers

Wow! - I've said it before I'll say it again - when the up/down ratio drops below 35 look out above.

The money just keeps rolling in - the model portfolio is up to 14.08% and the benchmark is printing 5.74%. My trading portfolio is doing very well too. It currently contains GGB, AKS, AMAT, and the new kid - ANR. I think I'm late to the dance on ANR I should have picked up on it about 6 weeks ago but we'll hold for awhile and see where it goes. I'll share the filter I'm using for this one with you over the weekend. It is interesting.

The three amigos are doing their thing as usual and it makes me nervous when the beloved of the beloved can't move out of their own way - MSFT was up 33 cents today while remaining range bound, AAPL managed to make 70 cents today for all of its loyal followers (these are not bad numbers) and GOOG dropped about half of its increase but still managed to close up by 10 bucks. I won't bore you with how much opportunity you GOOG holders missed today - you already know that story - in three part harmony.

Going to be a short post today so let's get to the forecast - the VIX remains in neutral and the up/down ratio is now 63%. And this guy says we remain oversold and vulnerable.

The fact that it bobbed up and down and back up again in the past three days doesn't really mean anything special. The only thing that matters any more is where the up/down ratio sits and that says - down Monday.

The INDU ATR is up to 96.47 and that isn't bad. It means that while we might have a down day Monday it probably won't be multiple down days.

I'm calling for a breather on Monday and then we'll see what happens after that.

The coin meanwhile calls for ... heads - up day Monday.

The score stands at Marlyn 25 - 26 and 10 and the coin is 29 - 22 and 10 - that lucky old coin ain't got nothin' to do but roll around Marlyn's desk all day.

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