Monday, April 02, 2007

BOB - Weekly Basis

IIO asked if I had tried BOB on a weekly basis. I have and it works pretty good - stockfetcher unfortunately isn't really equipped to back test weekly filters so I'll have to show you several pictures so that you will get a good understanding of the filter.

First and foremost I have modified the BOB for use on a weekly basis. What? Modified? Yes. Sometimes you get two up weeks in a row in some stocks but most often, especially for the downtrodden BOB selections you get a "head fake" the week after the BOB was formed. Thus I added the "head fake" requirement to the filter. Consequently the code looks like this -
show stocks where close is between 15 and 35
and average volume(90) > 500000
and weekly open < weekly ema(8)
and weekly close 3 weeks ago < weekly open 3 weeks ago
and weekly close 2 weeks ago < weekly open 2 week2 ago
and weekly low 2 weeks ago < weekly low 3 weeks ago
and weekly volume 2 weeks ago is more than 20% > weekly volume 3 weeks ago
and weekly close 1 week ago > weekly open 1 week ago
and weekly low 1 week ago > weekly low 2 weeks ago
and weekly close < weekly open
and chart-display is weekly

And the output looks like this -



You can see the effect of the modification in this chart "MOD". If you then buy at what I've termed the "buy point" which is the close of the week after the BOB you should, market conditions permitting, enjoy at least one if not several up weeks.

This filter back tests at a 63% win rate but only a 17% ROI - the problem is we are comparing apples to oranges and it is difficult to trust those figures.

Here are several more charts for you to review (all charts taken from same output) -













As I mentioned all of these were from the same day, 12 March, and of 6 selections that day all were profitable the following week and 4 remain profitable through today. Of course if you use such an approach once you make a buy you need to watch your stock on a daily basis and if you see it failing then take any profit you might have and be happy.

I hope that answers the question.

And as always this is not an invitation to speculate, invest, or otherwise waste your time, effort or money in the the stock market - you are most likely better served by keeping it under your mattress (except the change, of course).

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

A public service announcement (and perhaps I was the only dummy who didn't know this) regarding Paintbar Alerts on QuoteTracker: The chart must be open in order for the alert to be activated. I learned about this the hard way this morning after missing several BOB opportunities. Now, after instructing QT to "show all charts," the alert is working just fine.

Philip

Marlyn Trades said...

You know - I hadn't gotten around to testing that yet - thanks for letting me know. I was under the impression (as you) that the alert would fire as long as the stock was in the watch list.

Anonymous said...

You're quite welcome. If you have the time, look at(all on 15 min. charts): NCR, BMC (mid-point), and EFC (opening-candle BOB). These were just a few that I missed.

I'm going into the basement now to give myself an all-leather gift: The boot machine to my butt and the heavy bag to my face.

Have a pleasant evening.

Philip

IIO said...

Thanks for taking a look at this. you've inspired me to test some patterns myself. I'm going to build something in VB that can look at different timeframes at the same time. If you want, I'll send it to you when I'm done.