Wednesday, April 04, 2007

Believe

According to a very prolific and very profane Blogger we are to -
Try buying stuff you can believe in, instead of playing with lines, dots and silly numbers.


OK let's examine that for a minute. We have earnings season coming up and of the x number of stocks out there with earnings - most will "beat by a penny" and then they will go on to estimate their earnings for the next quarter also to the penny. And we are expected to believe that crap and buy those stocks that have the best "story" as long as we have an "idea" that they are going to do well in the future. Are you hosing me?

So I'm supposed to believe in bull snot accounting methods that (based on my advanced degree in business) I could find flaws in at any time - instead of believing in BOB? Or to put it another way - am I to believe what my engineering trained eyes are telling me about the stock (price and volume) or IBM when they say they "made their estimates plus a penny"?

That's extremely difficult when I know full well that most international company profits for the past oh I don't know how many years have been based primarily on foreign exchange rates. If you move enough money around you can make the books say anything you want - and there are no end of accountants out there who are too stupid or too lazy to tell the difference.

I don't think so - I think I'll stick with the lines, dots and silly numbers that make up a BOB - that, at least, is based on hard facts.

2 comments:

Eddie Thomas said...

I think your points are good, but I also think you are misrepresenting the Fly, who I visit mainly for entertainment. I think he is saying that you buy things that personally make sense to you; he drinks Monster soda, so he buys HANS. I don't think he is relying that much on accounting figures. He also does his own kind of technical analysis, with seasonality reports and 52 week highs and lows.

Since he ends every sentence with an insult to someone, I think his crack on technicians was just a form of punctuation.

Marlyn Trades said...

I agree with your comment totally - and most people who come here know that I often use something such as what Broker A said as a lead in to make a lesson.

I understand the Fly and have absolutely no problem with his Blog or his trading methods - if I did it wouldn't be on my very, very short list of people who should be read.

Thanks for stopping by and come back often.