Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Tuesday Wraps

A great day to take off for golf - also noticed that the market kind of took off too. But the move was in the first 15 minutes and there wasn't anything much after that except count the overnight plays and be happy with that. This, of course, was the lessening-of-tensions-with-Iran rally that I wrote about this morning - wonder what the rally will be about tomorrow.

I made it home for the last 15 minutes of the day and sold off ALY - any stock that goes nowhere on a day when the Dow goes up 128 points does not belong in anyone's portfolio. Why in the world would anyone own such a stock? I'm sure there is a buy and hold rationale for it but I don't get it. The trading portfolio now contains GGB (overweight) and OI (underweight).

Now if I were you I'd review all my holdings and if they didn't at least match the market today I'd start thinking about dumping them. Especially any that might have already been profitable. And by match the market I mean that the SPY went up 1.06% and every stock in your portfolio better have gone up that much at least. It's time to start getting rid of the dogs.

The model portfolio is up to 9.83% and the benchmark is only 2.35%. I think I should start a hedge fund - I'm beating the snot out of the market.

The three amigos, GOOG, AAPL, and MSFT all went up today as you might expect - GOOG got frisky and went up 14 bucks (3%) which is pretty good; AAPL managed to squeeze 85 cents out which is pretty bad and just plays into my thesis regarding AAPL getting tired; and MSFT had all of a 13 cent rip today. A mega-cap company on a day when the index it is in goes up 128 points and it manages a whole 13 cents. If you owned a 100 shares you can eat off the dollar menu tonight - whoopy.

SBUX had a run for the sky today and then after hitting its head on the 50% retrace came back to earth again. I bet you all thought it would blast right through and run on and on and on - it didn't.

Again - I don't know if that is a good thing or a bad thing but it's not going to play with my money.

The shootout continues - my filter selection ANGO is up 3.20% and the ROCKET's is down -12.21%. One more day of a four day test and then it is over.

This guy rolled over to go in the wrong direction -

It will probably hit -.005 tomorrow because this madness can't continue. The DJI ATR is at 121.26 and that is not good. Remember the model portfolio was based on stocks that were climbing before 2/27 and were bought on 2/28. We need a down day or two in order to clear the air and get some buyable stocks.

The VIX remains in neutral but the up/down ratio has run out of the neutral zone and is printing 62%. It has and can go higher but not much. The market is already overbought and we need two down days to set up properly for the 401K and IRA money next week.

I'm calling for a down day tomorrow yet again - and yet again I may be wrong but without a down day we are just going to slide sideways.

The coin, big grin on its stupid face because it pulled ahead today, is calling tomorrow - tails - bear coming.

The score now stands at Marlyn 24 - 22 and 9 and the coin is 25 - 21 and 9. Just goes to show you what a little luck will do.

1 comment:

Bullish Jim said...

I took the pop in SBUX as the gift it was and sold it.