Wednesday, April 04, 2007

Wednesday Wraps

Well that was a wonderful day - my key stocks in the portfolio both went up a bit, I bought and sold RI in the space of 6 hours because it round tripped and replaced it with GRA - the stock I should have bought in the first place and a week ago to boot. That was the leader on the must buy list last week and remains number one with a bullet. It gained 3.15% today - of course I bought it late so it will probably lose that and more tomorrow. I added to OI as it seems to be indicating that it wants to run. I'm already overweight in GGB and left it that way.

Took two day trades, XING and TAM. XING I took off a bounce from S1 early and rode it to R1 and made 43 cents on the transaction. Just about the time I was finishing with XING, TAM printed a tweezer bottom just above S2 and I rode that one to R1 - making a buck for the effort. I discovered XING from the BOB set-up filter and TAM came from a gap down filter. Here's TAM so you can see how the trade developed. Very elegant and note that if I had waited for a EMA cross over I would have lost half the move. The arrow is what I have the software print to indicate a tweezer bottom.

And if you don't think I like QuoteTracker - you would be very wrong.

JTX opened up as I expected it would then dropped back then finished up. The specialist didn't get the short squeeze that he expected so it is possible that there weren't that many folks short the stock. It's possible that the drop was so severe that there were very few up-ticks when the stock could be shorted and also possible there just wasn't any inventory to short. It would have been a good play around 27.50 but I had other fish to fry at that time.

I think it's finally time to buy MVIS - two strong days with significant volume suggests that the big boys have finally noticed. I'm going to watch for an entry tomorrow and maybe put some in the portfolio. That'll calm it down.

The model portfolio is up to 11.56% and the bench mark printed 2.43%. It gets easier every day. The shootout is over with my Dead Cat Bounce Filter beating the Rocket - at least in this round. I don't know if there will be a second round - If the Rocket ever outputs another stock I'll do another comparison.

The three pals - GOOG, MSFT, and AAPL had a wonderful day. MSFT won the race with a 2.26% gain and that puts it at the top of its trading range again. It actually went into breakout territory but then pulled back just in time to level off with the last two highs of the past 20 days. Anyone care to guess where it goes tomorrow? My guess is back to 27.90 or so. GOOG flatened off with yesterday's gains and printed a spinner - I.E. - nobody knows what to do. AAPL, having read my critique this morning, went nowhere. Lost 23 cents. This stock has now lost 6 days out of the last 7 and is not even going anywhere as a result. It is sliding sideways. I don't know - I think there is a lot of lost liquidity in these stocks that could be used in other places to make money - but apparently the Cult of AAPLGOOGMSFT is just too powerful and knowing. Earnings are coming - here is my guess - AAPL - makes by a penny, MSFT - misses by 2 cents, GOOG - makes a profit but misses estimates. You read it here first.

The DJI ATR slipped back to 104.15 today and that is excellent - I think it will go below 100 before the end of next week. Unfortunately this guy went back up today to peek over .005% and that usually means a down market is coming -

The VIX remains neutral and the up/down ratio actually returned to an oversold - kinda - configuration - printing 46%. I told you it was an ugly day.

So we have competing up and down indications - I'm guessing tomorrow is more of the same as today with a bit of a down bias. The big guys will all take the afternoon off and only the rookies will be manning the pits. Their orders will be - do no harm.

Then Friday is a day off and Monday the 401K/IRA money starts flowing into the market.

So as not to be ambiguous myself I'm calling for a down day tomorrow - I know it is more of a wish than a reasonable guess but it's all I've got right now.

The coin is saying that tomorrow is going to be a ... heads - up day - the coin never guesses.

We both missed so the score is at Marlyn 24 - 23 and 9 and the coin is 25 - 22 and 9.


Anonymous said...

I'm thinking the same thing about MVIS.

A nice dip below the pivot to S1 would be nice, but not sure it'll happen.

I appreciated your thoughts regarding The Fly's "believe" comment over at my place. I was going to post a reply but never got around to it.

Believing in a company is something I'm not interested in doing.

In one of Michael Covel's YouTube videos, he rhetorically asks a room full of financial managers to identify something in a company's annual report that cannot be massaged or moved around.

Its a question every fundamental investor needs to think about, but they won't, and that's okay.

Marlyn Trades said...

Thanks - I just saw an opportunity to do one of my little lessons. There are a lot of traders, especially new ones, who aren't aware of the problems with the annual reports.

Bullish Jim said...

Marlyn's joining the cult of MVIS. This has to be one of the signs of the apocalyse. :)

Bullish Jim said...

MVIS RSI (2) = 98.64. That's smokin'.