Monday, April 09, 2007

Wrapping Monday

Pretty much as expected - I did well on DNDN managed to dump out near the top for 2.65 per share - I also learned something about Philip's Set-Up which I will share with you in a different post this evening. DNDN did 78 million shares today - I wonder how many of Jimmy Crack Corn Pone's fans were seeing red as they ran to buy shares they may have once owned at a lower basis. One good thing that has come out of this - Jimmy's pronouncement did not make the stock go down. If anything it rose a tick on the word of the almighty one. That probably means that he is losing his Mojo as well as his Bull Snot "booyah". I served active 20 years and I wouldn't use that salute today because it belongs to the active combat soldier - not some useless piece of crap stock picker who never served a day in his life.

Speaking of volume the majors all did about half today - if you've ever wondered what Europe means to us then look at the volume figures on Easter Monday. And if you've ever wondered why the market trades differently in the morning vs the afternoon - Europe is the answer.

AKS didn't treat me that well today - I just don't get that stock - it goes up and then stalls and falls. To be fair it is in uncharted territory. I still haven't decided whether I'm going to hold it through earnings or not (Apr 24). If it is still going up into the date I'll hold because I like a stock rising into earnings. If it is still in a stall pattern I'll probably dump out. It is up 20.5% since February 28th and might need a rest.

I'm holding KNOT for awhile - about 10 days - or until it hits the stop loss - whichever comes first. This stock has just gone though a tremendous sell-off for absolutely no apparent reason and it might be time to buy it. Besides it owes me a few bucks and I want them back. Once I'm even we'll undo the KNOT.

I don't know how many of you noticed that AMGN - Lenny's double down nightmare - just continued to go down again today. I wonder when, if ever, he pulls the pin. And if he does, does he tell his legions of followers that he did? Based on his strategy he already needed over 14 winners to make up for his losses through Thursday - oh well - 4 days to earnings - I hope he gets a good number.

The three amigos - MSFT, AAPL, and GOOG dropped early which followed the initial market direction but then they didn't get with the program. GOOG as you know is just so much dead opportunity and has been for at least the past 6 weeks of this particular rally. Although to be fair I could go back to the beginning of the rally in November when GOOG was selling for 510 a share and say - wow did you losers miss some wonderful opportunities. But I won't - another one of Booyah Boy's 52-star back up the truck picks - still waiting for that short squeeze - Jimmy.

MSFT stays in the narrow range as does AAPL. Don't know what anyone is waiting for on that one either. Take a look at the chart - get the crash cart - it's flatlining!

What's the longest time that an RSI(2) stays below 2? About 45 minutes or three 15-minute bars worth. That's why I like that particular tell especially when it is linked to a pivot point.

OI is just drifting - I'd like to pull the pin on that one but it too is approaching earnings (4/25) and so I'll just hang on into the number. Besides at this moment I don't have anything else to do with the money. When I talk about opportunity here is what I am talking about - here is OI an old fashioned sticks and bricks company vs GOOG a modern software company. One produces real things the other produces nothing. OI broke out of a range to 18 dollars a share in November when GOOG was selling for 470 dollars a share. Let's say you sold 100 shares of GOOG at that time and converted the proceeds to buying OI - you could have bought 2600 shares of OI at a cost of 47000 dollars. Today you could sell the 2600 shares of OI for 70000 dollars (rounded). Today, if you are still holding the 100 shares of GOOG, you can sell it for 47000 dollars. That's what opportunity cost is all about. Ah - it's your money - do as you please.

I see the cult of MVIS made 2 cents today. Back up the truck, Mavis, I want to take some a dat MVIS home. Rule 1 is always in effect and if you don't know what Rule 1 is - it's simple - Nobody Knows Nothing including me. Trust no one except yourself and only when you have a bona fide set-up to support your decision. Do not ever buy a stock because you "believe" in it.

The INDU ATR dropped a little more today to 102.16. The model portfolio printed 11.965 and the benchmark hit 2.88% both up a bit.

This guy keeps rising and I'm not sure when it is going to key a drop. Of course we had another mixed day today.

The VIX is still 5% below its 10-period moving average and the up/down ratio is 44% or a tad on the over-sold side. Is it enough to move the market tomorrow - maybe - after all the 401K and IRA money is starting to flow in and it all has to go somewhere.

I'm calling tomorrow up.

The coin is calling tomorrow ... tails - down.

Another tie day - the score stands at Marlyn 24 - 24 and 10 and the coin is 26 - 22 and 10. I never paid much attention to it before but it seems to me that we are having an inordinate amount of split days this year.

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