Saturday, February 03, 2007

Wrap It Up Friday

Late for Friday's wrap - had some important things to do. Anyway as you may have noticed it was a kind of up and down day but the one thing that stood out was the low volume.

After peaking on Wednesday at 2 million over the average the DIA was 2 million down for Friday. The SPY, Q's and IWM showed the same pattern with IWM coming in at only about half of the average volume.

I think this shows a reluctance on the part of the funds to sell their winners and that probably supports the belief that the bull has some run left. Of course earnings in general have been not too bad and there haven't been any outright misses - yet. But we are getting close to the end of the earnings season and it appears as if everyone is breathing a sigh of relief that things aren't as bad as the anecdotes would have it.

I didn't do much today because I was busy with other things but I did reacquire KKD. I took it at the daily pivot point (12.29) after it had gone below and touched the mid-point low. I was going to sell it at R2 but it never made it that far so I decided to hang on for another day.

An update on CRVL - the other day I said I'd either double or sell and I opted to double. Problem was I was only able to get half my order filled before the price ran away (I won't "market" buy this one) so I only went up another quarter. I'm going to hold a while longer as it made my week this past week and I see no reason to sell at this time.

Monday is looking like a down day even though the cycle should have us going up. This will be the first (full) week of the month and it normally is an up week because of the influx of the retirement fund money. There are mixed signals however because the up/down ratio withdrew to 53% but the new 20-day high/low ratio stayed in the high 80's (88%). The VIX went back into the yellow zone low (-5-10 below 10 day moving average) and 3 of the 4 indices finished the week with stong white final hour candles. Only IWM finished in the red. I think that there is just not enough out there to buy and that the stress on the system caused by the huge number of new 20-day highs is going to be enough to knock the market down a little on Monday.

Meanwhile the coin says - - - tails - bear market. We agree again.

Nothing to be said about Friday except another mixed day. The score is now Marlyn 8 - 5 and 3 and the coin is 6 - 7 and 3. I wonder what all of these mixed days are going to mean? Six months last year we had 1 so far we've had 3. Stay tuned.

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