I think we need to lose a percent or more off the Spy. In which case we will lose some from all of the indices. Here is yesterday's drawing updated by a day. What a difference a day makes.
You can easily see how yesterday's downturn affected the curve - in fact it was so severe that the curve disappeared. As you can see along each of the lines when the downturn is so severe it is usually short lived. Most major drops come with a more graceful decline. Now I was expecting a decline of sorts yesterday just based on the fact that the DIA is in the process of rolling over (or taking a rest as I am fond of saying).
While it is possible that we will get a violent rebound today I think we need to have at least a week or two of declining returns before the market can resume its march. And I think that is what the curves are telling us.