Thursday, July 20, 2006


A little skittish after yesterday's bear market rally. A couple of things that bode ill for today.

First the number of up issues from yesterday is over 75% - the last time we saw that on 29 June the market went down the next day. Not large but down. The one big difference between then and now is the VIX. The the VIX was 22% above its 10-day average (an extreme reading that suggests market will be going up in the next several days which it did) now it is the 10-day average. That makes it somewhat neutral as a predictor.

Bottom line - I wouldn't be surprised to see an immediate jump up (futures are supporting this amazing suggestion) and then a fade away day from there.

I could be wrong - always remember rule 1 - nobody knows nothing.

My trading plan is clear - if the market says hold I will hold otherwise I will sell HLTH and XING. I will hold SWY until the pivot point turns against me, BGO and SDS.

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