Wrapping Friday

Another record. That's nuts. Now we go into the new month (well technically still one day left in this one) and the new money comes into the market.

We've had some crazy moves today - it was raining most of the day so I couldn't get outside much and spent the day glued to my screens. Just as well - I had a couple of opportunities and I took advantage of them. I bought DPTR off a cross over but was premature. I'm holding it through the next couple of days because I expect the market will take off again next week. I added a little to GGB and a little to AKS. GGB is about half weight now and AKS is 90%. I'm still holding JST and will give it another couple of days and if it doesn't move with the market next week - it will be gone.

Here's a story on me - I bought a couple hundred shares of MFE this morning just because I wanted some tech exposure, I like the company and it pulling back from a rise. As is my habit (for want of a better word) I put a 25-cent stop below my buy price and hardwired it into the account. I hit the transaction button and then switched to the accounts screen to ensure all was OK - I couldn't find MFE. Totally confused I went to the stop screen and still couldn't find MFE. I then switched to the execute screen and there was MFE - bought and 30 seconds later stopped out. I think the second I hit the transaction key on the stop order it triggered. Needless to say it sat right on that number for the rest of the day and closed 1 cent below it. I don't own MFE and I never will.

Here is the rest of the story on the Q's -


And isn't that a neat end to an interesting day? I don't know how to characterize this action except - wow!

The INDU ATR is down a bit to 101.44 and this guy continues to recede -


I think this means that the rally continues.

The model portfolio that I wrote about this morning lost a bit (2.31) and posted a 15.59 (ICON was the big loser on the day). The benchmark gained a few to 6.39. Still 9 points of Alpha is nothing to sneeze at.

The three amigos (winkin, blinkin, and nod) are embarrassing to say the least - MSFT broke 30 again with a 1.02 now let's see how long it can hold it - doubt it will be for long - I mean this is the stock that rang up 69% profit yesterday evening and all it can gain is 1.02. AAPL managed to pull within 8 cents of a 100 even with its 1.08 gain and GOOG resumed the fall, or the slide - whatever you want to call it.

The VIX stays in neutral which is just as well (neutral, for those who don't know the code is that region between -10 points below the 10-period moving average and 10 points above the average).

A month ago I put together (and wrote about in the BLog) what I called the "must buy" portfolio - 15 stocks that kept going up through the collapse in late March. It is now ringing up 5.22% (that's one month returns folks). I'll publish those names over the weekend. There's probably a few on there some folks would like to put in their core portfolios.

The good news is the up/down ratio is printing 39% - look out above.

For Monday I'm forecasting an up day.

Coin says tails - looking for a down day.

Coin missed, I forecast a split day with the DOW up and the COMPQ down - only got that half right so I'm giving us both a loss. The score is now Marlyn 27 - 27 and 12 and the coin is 30 - 24 and 12.

Wrapping Thursday

Pretty mild day all told. I bought the KMX as I said I would - we'll see how that works out. Still holding AKS, a small position in GGB and JST and for the first time in a long time all my holdings lost money today.

I did get to play golf and that was good.

The model portfolio lost money today and closed at 16.20% but the benchmark surged ahead and hit 6.60 a .17% gain. The INDU ATR dropped to 102.61 and that is just fine with me. The rally will continue.

So do you remember AAPL computer, the company that blew the doors off earnings last evening, well it made exactly $3.49 per share today which is pathetic. GOOG, a company that didn't do anything in the past 24 hours made $3.19 and MSFT, well, what can I say - another 11 cents in the till. Mom would be so proud. Of course MSFT reported a 65% increase in earnings (can you spell Cook(ed) Book(s)) and that will drive tomorrow's market and maybe even Mr. Softy will catch a bid or two.

GRA dropped a few cents today on good earnings and OI went up 4.20 on adequate earnings. That's why I call it roulette you never know what number will produce a winner.

This guy is pulling back again


which is good.

The VIX remains in neutral and the up/down ratio pulled back to neutral, posting a 47%.

In the face of all of this exuberance I'm calling for another mixed day tomorrow - yes, that's right, I'm forecasting the Dow to go up and the COMPQ to go down.

The coin, having only a binary nature, is calling for a down day tomorrow outright.

Another tie day leaves the score at Marlyn 27 - 26 and 12 and the coin is 30 - 23 and 12. This year, for all of the record breaking going on - is not as good as it looks.

I'll be back tomorrow with some additional posts regarding the cross over method. Stay tuned. Oh yes - I remember - the model portfolio - I'm working on it.

Wednesday Wrapper

Another! Record! Day! - I've covered this in my earlier post regarding volatility so let's get to business - it's hard not to make money as long as you dump the weak ones and put good ones in their place.

I did that today - I dumped KEP after expecting it to go up on a record in Korea last night and it didn't and that's what you get for buying a stock with a 37 cent ATR. Keep that in mind when you are faced with choices in the market - if the stock looks like it is about to run - a low ATR is a good thing as long as there is a high ATR at the end of the rainbow. But it wasn't looking like it was going to run having missed a wonderful opportunity.

I replaced it with another shot at DNDN which I held this time for an overnight trade - I'm hoping to catch a jump tomorrow. The fact that it didn't participate in today's festivities doesn't leave me with much hope. I also bought JST which is a stock that Bullish Jim bought and I liked the chart so much I had to have it. About mid-day it came up with an RSI(2) < 2 right on the 15's around a support point so I jumped in. It's a nice looking stock and I think it has some room to run.

Still holding AKS and GGB although GGB is starting to disappoint. I think on Friday I'll put on a tight stop and if it hits it it's gone.

A couple I could have had but chose to ignore were PKG and NI. These would have been classic Return To 4 day trades and here are the charts -




PKG was the best of the two and it turns out it announced at 10 A.M. and made triple earnings last quarter. The country runs on packaging.

Why did I choose not to participate - to be candid I'm not feeling all that great and while I can make longer term decisions with a head cold I don't like to day trade with one.

Anyway there is an interesting feature on both of these charts that I wanted you to see and remember and that is that little doji about 5 candles in on PKG - we call that an NR7 or narrowest range in 7 bars (counting two from the day before that I didn't show - it's 6 candles in on NI). That's another one of those "buy me" indicators that day traders snap up as quick as they appear.

The other thing I wanted you to observe and remember if you can is the ATR action on these two stocks. A moment ago I said a low ATR was good if the stock appeared to be ready to run again and both of these had that look about them even though they flattened out for much of the day.

The three Amigos all made money for their loyal fans today and AAPL did the best with a two buck increase. GOOG of course, that stock where one share costs 477 dollars brought home 46 cents for its fans - $4.60 on a hundred shares won't get you a happy meal folks - kids go hungry tonight. And MSFT - what a piece of crap - 20 cents - of course that's 20 times the profit from yesterday. If given the fact that not only did the DOW break records today but both the SPX and the COMPQ went up significantly as well and between them these three megacraps couldn't scrape up enough for carfare home - I have to ask again - why in hell are you holding them? Don't answer to me - answer to yourself - I'm sure you have a good reason such as "just because" or "because I wanna" or "someday that GOOG short squeeze will happen and Marlyn you'll just look stupid! stupid! stupid!"

Of course AAPL earnings rose (after hours) and the stock is up 7 and a half putting it over the magical 100. We'll see tomorrow if it can hold it. The paltry IPOD increase doesn't appear to me to be enough and, we already knew about that for about two weeks now (read Notable Calls) so what the exuberance is all about I haven't a clue.

GRA and OI, two of my former holdings, both announce after market close tonight - GRA actually went up a buck today and OI did what its been doing lately - went sideways - usually this means that GRA made and OI missed but I don't know how with the way PKG came in this morning. If they get it out before I end the wrap I'll let you know what the outcome was.

This guy went back up again -


Which as I've noted is pretty meaningless but the INDU ATR came back in a little to 109.05. That's OK - the rally continues.

The model portfolio is up another 1.09% today to 16.71 and the benchmark went up .91% to 6.47. If I get to it tomorrow I'll print out the model portfolio, the starting and current values.

The VIX remains in neutral and that's not a surprise - no one really knows what to do right at the moment - this week is all about writing options and getting inventory back up again so I doubt it (the VIX) means anything at all.

But the up/down ratio is printing 59% and that should be enough to get us a breather tomorrow. I forecast a down day.

The coin says ... tails - also looking for a down day.

Having both hit the nail on the head the score stands at Marlyn 27 - 26 and 11 and the coin is 30 - 23 and 11.

Neither GRA nor OI have made any splash at all AH so I guess they were adequate. We'll see in the morning.