Tuesday, December 05, 2006

Tuesday Wrap Up

Dumped SYMC 5 minutes into the session and glad I was to do so. Picked up some AMD and got out a little ahead of commissions - it was up to a reasonable profit but I let it degrade into nearly a break even trade. A couple of old favorites such as HANS, GM, and AMR made some today - but I picked AMD as the trade of the day and that's the way of this game. You make your pick, you buy the assets, and you take what you get. But AMD is officially off my Christmas list.

This is nonsense - the market goes up for an hour and then degrades the rest of the day. I'll give you an idea - by 10:15 the DIA was up 25 cents to 123.22 - it closed at 123.35. Made 25 cents in 45 minutes and took another 6 hours to make an extra 13 cents. And it never really was much higher than that just another nickle. Can't make any money in this kind of environment. I'm considering going back to my old method which was strictly overnight - buy at 3:45 sell at 9:45. In that half hour you will make more money than at any other time in the market. So sayeth brother Brett (Dr. Steenbarger) and so sayeth Marlyn. But it takes real guts to hold overnight in this environment - so if you don't have the stones don't make the play.

Currently flat and happy - always be tomorrow. For tomorrow, although I think it is going to be a down day (but I think that almost every day and am wrong quite frequently) I will be watching BRCM, CTXS and AFFX. If the method I am researching pans out I will let you in on it tomorrow evening.

The up/down ratio prints 49% which is neutral as is the VIX. New 20 day highs did pull back some to 1028 and the new 20 day lows went ahead to 150. These changes are extremely small and meaningless. The three sisters, the ugly step sister and the proxy for the market of the 22nd century, GS, all finished the last hour in the white(green) which is a totally bogus signal as far as I'm concerned.

The problem remains - nothing to buy. To put it into a different perspective right now for stocks between 5 and 250 with an average 90 day volume greater than 500K there are 200 closing at the upper Bollinger Band and only 9 closing at the lower Bollinger Band. Tell me we aren't top heavy. Something has to give and, truthfully, we need a couple of weeks of solid declines. I hope we get them because only then will we be able to get back to making real money again on the day side. Besides the shortists need a break too.

Ol' magic coin is 33 and 25 having missed yet another one but persevering always it bravely soldiers on and for tomorrow says - heads - bull market. I think we can fade that.

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