Monday, December 11, 2006

Monday Wraps

It was 59 degrees today and I should have gone and played golf. I didn't. One time this afternoon I looked at my monitor and after 5 seconds or so I realized that the only thing moving was the clock on one of my windows. Things started fluttering a little after that. It was all I could do to stay awake.

I remain in my swing trades - SYMC, ORCL and ALTR and have added CTXS to the mix. I plan to hold these stocks each for at least 3 or 4 days unless they crash to their stop loss points at which time I will unload them. As bad as the day was I made some in SYMC and ORCL and didn't lose much in ALTR and CTXS. ALTR is shaping up as an interesting trade. It printed a NR7 today. The NR7 as you know is the narrowest range in the last 7 candles. The method I used to pick the swing trades was a filter - low near or through bottom Bollinger Band, MACD histogram in negative territory, one of the 4 highest volume stocks matching this filter's constraints. It back tests nicely and all I have to do is be prepared for some small losses and a couple of good size wins. I can do that.

I tried daytrading a little PFE early in the session but I didn't have it long as it turned around and I unloaded it for an $96 loss including commissions.

Just so I don't forget - KKD went up again today - I showed you the quad tweezer bottom on Friday. Remember this is just a lesson - I neither play KKD nor eat their donuts.

The market has several good things going in its favor - one is the Fed meeting that should announce an end to inflation in our time on Wednesday. And the second is that more and more stocks are finding their way to the bottom of the pile and not so many are being added at the top even though the market is going up.

Speaking of that - the up/down ratio is printing 47%, there were 610 new 20 day highs and 318 new 20 day lows. That was an increase of over 60 off Friday's number. Two of the five majors printed the last hour white so that's a mixed signal at best - the only time that signal is valid is if they are all white or all red - otherwise it's a wash.

The VIX is now 6% under its 10-day moving average and that's sliding towards the bearish side but just a little bit out of neutral territory. So we have a several mixed signals, neutral signals, and leaning bearish signals. I'm going to call tomorrow more of the same as today - waiting for the Fed to speak. Maybe a little bit down.

The magic coin is 36 and 26 because it hit today fairly well and for tomorrow it says .... heads - bull market again - maybe so.

1 comment:

TradingGoddess said...

LOL! on the KKD remark!