Wednesday, October 18, 2006

The Joker's Wild and the Joke's On You

Earnings season is upon us so junkvision can stop using inflation as their reasoning for the market going down and they can now use earnings. Note how a market drop of less than 1% is a one day story that is blamed on increased inflation yet inflation continues every day and the market drop is a one day story - that doesn't make sense. If inflation is the cause and inflation continues then the market should continue to go down every day until mean old inflation is brought under control. Right? Obviously not - but I'm no economist I don't even play one on TV.

Anyway those of you who follow along here (thanks Mom) know that the real reason the market behaves as it does is because the magic coin is directing it ... actually you know that when there is nothing to buy people sell things and then, having sold, they look around and say "oh - look at all the wonderful things to buy" and then buy them.

This is like two neighbors, you and me say, each having a yard sale and we buy each others junk every week or so and cart it into our houses. We both feel good about selling off the old stuff and getting some new stuff but stuff is stuff - if you get my drift. Then, just like in a yard sale, every once in awhile a new buyer rides through the neighborhood and throws a potful of new money into the mix and the cost of junk goes up.

So remember it isn't inflation, or earnings, or anything else anyone else says - it is the availability of junk to be bought at a price that someone else will pay that makes the market go up. And when no one will pay the price the price comes down until someone does pay and that's what makes the market go down.

And if you don't believe me - well go back to the magic coin it makes as much sense as using something inmeasurable but continuous such as inflation or one number out of a sea of numbers that are constantly changing such as earnings.

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