Saturday, October 21, 2006

Friday Wrap-Up - Late Edition

Ok - there was no early edition - sue me - I'm sure you'll be able to find some well- respected Republican judge (on the take) who will agree that you have been grieviously faulted.

I made some money on Friday - I played RHAT and CTXS both off a gap down dummy spot entry point. Didn't hold either trade very long but that is the nature of such trades - if the market is booming up they go for a long time - if not they are short time make some bucks and out types. Don't matter - both can be satisfying (wink wink). Anyway for those of you who have forgotten - this is a dummy spot trade:

See the third candle - that is a "dummy spot" AKA "doji". The entry is at the high of the doji. My exit was the "tweezer top" shown in the 7 and 8th bars but the dummy spot in the 9th would have gotten most folks out anyway. A "tweezer top" is one where two candles in a row have the same high and the first candle is white and the second is red. The "tweezer bottom" is the same but at the lows and the second candle is the white one.

For Monday we could be looking at another mixed day. The up/down ratio is just about into buying territory at 40% (less than 40 is buying territory) and the new 20 day highs have backed way off to 578 - the closest they have been to 500 in 2 weeks and the new 20 day lows hit 241 which is the highest it has been in the same time but the VIX is now more than 5% below its 10 day average.

Now the VIX is tricky - it really doesn't matter much until it is at least 10% above or below its 10 day moving average and it matters more at the top than the bottom - so while it is a warning it is weak at the same time and could pull back into neutral with no adverse affect.

On the other hand the DIA finished in the red and the SPY and the Q's went white in the last hour which generally, used to mean a good day the next day because traders where squaring their positons in a positive manner.

Now I don't know what all this means but it could be that the markets are going to go down next week to end October the way they should have begun it. Also it is the week following options expiration and that is generally a quiet time.

Earnings are good for those of us who day trade the long side because they make for volatility in the market. They are especially good because when they come in bad there is no place for the stock to go but down and sometimes when they come in too good the stock also has to go down. Since there is no science to this - i.e. no one knows where the bottom is most often down is a lot further than it should be so you can pick up some real good winners riding them back up. That's what is going on in CTXS and that is as close to a stock tip I will ever give.

The magic coin or Mr. Majestic as I'm starting to call him is 21 and 10 because although the INDU was down the "market" is actually the SPX and it was up. For Monday - heads - bull again - we'll see.

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