Sunday, August 13, 2006

What About Monday

Based on the action on Friday I'd guess Monday to be an up day (emphasis on guess). But here is my rationale. The VIX remains benign and that is neutral so even though there was a lot of apparent selling on Friday the late day rally neutallized the VIX. The late day rally also produced three strong white candles on the three sisters (Q's, DIA, SPY) in the last hour. The fact that the rally started at 1 P.M. is also a good sign.

What makes that a good sign? Glad you asked. Friday's in August are traditionally low turnout days and the longer the day goes the lower the turnout. While it takes only a little bit of selling to drop a market it takes a bunch of buying to raise it. The fact that it rose through the afternoon suggests that the buy programs were activated and they are usually keyed to market bottom indicators. Suggests that.

The up/down ratio sits at 30% and the 20 Day new highs vs new lows sits at 238 to 668. These two indicators both suggest that there are a lot of stocks out there waiting for someone to buy.

Couple that evidence with fact that the DIA and the Q's both printed NR7's and the SPY printed a black hammer and I rest my case.

Now, of course, we'll see.

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